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Antarctica


Lewis

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Sea Ice Extent continues to be lowest for the 87th day this year, if this continues by the time it reaches Antarctica summertime and coupled with Super El Niño that is coming, we could see some serious melt and the ice shelf collapsing faster including thwaites Glaciers. We had two record breaking melts 2022 and 2023 under La Niña conditions, 2024 will be uncharted territory.

 

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21 minutes ago, Lewis said:

Shocking, uncharted territory in the making.

https://zacklabe.com/antarctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration/

I can only get the gist of what these charts are showing. The technical details are quite hard for the lay man to understand. 

Spoiler

 

image.thumb.png.76ccaa9a17d1a6749758f242c0c496a9.png

 

Can someone explain what this is on the chart? The legend/keys to be precise.

image.png.3d8cb6333909422c40ff621bdf9d9051.png

 

image.png.73d9233e1ddc1b029752ae44f4f54eab.png

So in 2023 (the 1st few months) compared to the median (1981 - 2021) there is a drastic reduction in ice, to the extent  of a few million square kilometers. 

Wow, that is serious stuff

 

 


Edited by Imagine
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42 minutes ago, Imagine said:

https://zacklabe.com/antarctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration/

I can only get the gist of what these charts are showing. The technical details are quite hard for the lay man to understand. 

  Hide contents

 

image.thumb.png.76ccaa9a17d1a6749758f242c0c496a9.png

 

Can someone explain what this is on the chart? The legend/keys to be precise.

image.png.3d8cb6333909422c40ff621bdf9d9051.png

 

image.png.73d9233e1ddc1b029752ae44f4f54eab.png

So in 2023 (the 1st few months) compared to the median (1981 - 2021) there is a drastic reduction in ice, to the extent  of a few million square kilometers. 

Wow, that is serious stuff

 

 

 

Percentile analysis is a way of determining how unusual a rainfall or temperature event is.

 

As an example, the 10-90th percentiles means 10% chance that temperatures will fall above this threshold and anything above the 90th percentile is considered unseasonably warm.

 

And standard deviation tells us the standard amount that the distribution deviates from the average

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  • 2 weeks later...

Here is an official report of a CHS survey vessel plying the arctic ice in the Beaufort Sea starting July 25 attempting to start a nautical survey in 1988. These are people I worked with. You will see reports of ice and the somewhat short season for surveying in the mid to late 80s. That has changed a great deal since then. This is also before GPS was employed. It will give you an idea of a scientific survey in the 'summer', when there was still a lot of ice to contend with. When I was there in the mid-90s it had greatly reduced. How is it now? It is opening up as a shipping route.

https://waves-vagues.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/library-bibliotheque/40643360.pdf

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On 6/7/2023 at 12:00 PM, Percy said:

Ouch!!! We are in for it. Fires are blazing across North America because it is so dry. https://theconversation.com/how-wildfires-affect-climate-change-and-vice-versa-158688

A state of emergency was declared in Saskatchewan but who will declare one for Antarctica?

The bad thing about these fires, they release tons of CO2 in the atmosphere, adding fuel to our warming.

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3 minutes ago, Lewis said:

The bad thing about these fires, they release tons of CO2 in the atmosphere, adding fuel to our warming.

Not that many years ago, scientists thought that burning 'fossil' fuels was going to be the source of global warming, but now we have other sources. Who predicted all these forest fires?

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10 hours ago, Percy said:

 

Meanwhile on June 7th, in the North Atlantic Ocean, we passed 1 degree of warming 🤷‍♂️

 

64DC20DE-A831-49BB-875F-8A2C5B484665.jpeg.01b2062a1fdd0ee5feabff6afa473c90.jpeg


Edited by Lewis
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  • 2 weeks later...

Earlier this year we had new Low Minimum in February that broke records for both Extent and Area now there is a very high probability that we will see a new records for Low Maximum this fall.

 

For Low Maximum.

For Extent currently we are at around 11,50 km2 and current record is 18.01 km2 set in 2002

For Area currently we are at around 8.70 km2 and current record is at 14.16 km2 set in 2002

 

With new forecast suggesting Ocean Temperatures will continue right through fall, should be easy to beat these records.

 

The Sea Ice Shelf and Thwaites Glacier will no doubt be affected by these major changes that is in play, new cracks and calving events will no doubt be something to watch for during the next melt season.

 

While cracks and calving events are normal and healthy for Glaciers, the speed of which is happening now is not.

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Antarctica sea ice continues in experiencing unprecedented difficulties, Antarctica is about 2.5 million square kilometers from normal range (1981-2010 average) (Graph by Zack Labe) 

 

2016 had a similar trend for a short term but that was in Nov/Dec/Jan, you can see it on this graph. But nothing compares what were going through now. 

 

68B64DFF-7C01-4657-8BDD-FDDF35B25CF4.thumb.jpeg.32fd233e05439071b8f83e494fbe628e.jpeg

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...

Antarctica sea ice gain has slowed down even more this week, we are about a month before melting season starts.

Lots of eyes on Thwaites Glacier right now as there are signs of deterioration especially on the tongue and the underbelly, lots of cracks and calving. While calving events are normal, the rate is happening is much faster. Will post if I see anything dramatic happening.

 

16E79289-FAF3-48F4-A063-50C3830D1CBD.thumb.jpeg.a2709d49f4b2a0935580d0aa296f0825.jpeg

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 8/20/2022 at 9:59 AM, Lewis said:

Antarctica continues to remain in the low levels of sea ice, it will come to its maximum in October and then will start its melting cycle. Because of the refreeze stall throughout the season, I wonder how it will affect the emperor penguins during its breeding season, which is typically during fall, because they depend on stable sea ice to breed. This coming melting season could be interesting to watch.

 

0C9E1915-ACD3-47D3-B5C5-C01AF8550F9D.thumb.jpeg.4f25a0929a9d9251eb4b8ba546725d46.jpeg

 

A catastrophic die off happened shortly after I made this post, up to about 10,000 penguins died, the sea ice beneath the chicks broke and melted before they could develop their water proof feathers. They apparently drowned or froze to death.

 

I expect this coming season to be even worst.

 

Here is the reported article that came out today about the penguins.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66492767

 

Here’s an example of fast ice that break off near a penguin colony, you can see the excrements where they are.

 

58BEAB59-C8C2-4423-92AD-17EE2CB61EBA.thumb.webp.20606229dc9c1479b64b68977376c368.webp

 

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9 hours ago, Lewis said:

calving events to speed up this melt season

Ice calving, also known as glacier calving or iceberg calving, is the breaking of ice chunks from the edge of a glacier. It is a form of ice ablation or ice disruption. It is the sudden release and breaking away of a mass of ice from a glacier, iceberg, ice front, ice shelf, or crevasse. The ice that breaks away can be classified as an iceberg, but may also be a growler, bergy bit, or a crevasse wall breakaway.

Calving of glaciers is often accompanied by a loud cracking or booming sound before blocks of ice up to 60 metres (200 ft) high break loose and crash into the water. The entry of the ice into the water causes large, and often hazardous waves

 

 

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