Lewis

Latest news on the Arctic has come out that we should expect a Blue Ocean Event within 10 years as early as this year (highly doubt it).. Scientists are now discussing this issue and an article has come out to alert the world. https://phys.org/news/2024-03-arctic-ice-free-decade-scientists.html A blue Ocean Event is considered in having less than 1 million square km of ice, at that point ice would be in chunks and scattered.

And now you have mass bleaching happening at the Great Barrier Reef. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/11/great-barrier-reef-severe-coral-bleaching-impact According to the IPCC, at 2C warming, 99% of reefs will die.

Global Temperature Update for March 2024 Global Temperature for the month of March is the hottest on record for the 10th month in a row. Global surface temperature was recorded at 1.39C (1951-1980 mean) or 1.66C (1880-1920 mean).NASA data (just noticed the graph above shows 1.41C but my chart from NASA says 1.39C) We are currently holding at 1.64C for the year so far above the pre industrial (1880-1920 mean) NASA data We have averaged 1.52C for the last 12 months. April is on track to become hottest month already.

Status about same as last month. EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS 11 April 2024 ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch Synopsis: A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (60% chance). During March 2024, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to weaken across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. SST anomalies were coolest in the far eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1], with the latest weekly Niño-1+2 value at -0.1°C [Fig. 2]. Weekly SST index values in the other Niño regions were between +0.9°C and +1.2°C. Below-average subsurface temperatures strengthened (area-averaged index in [Fig. 3]), reflecting the expansion of negative subsurface anomalies associated with an upwelling Kelvin wave [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the west-central equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly near average. Equatorial convection was slightly suppressed around the Date Line and was near average around Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the continued weakening of El Niño. The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during late summer 2024 [Fig. 6]. The forecast team continues to favor the dynamical model guidance, which is slightly more accurate than statistical models during this time of year. La Niña tends to follow strong El Niño events, which also provides added confidence in the model guidance favoring La Niña. In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (60% chance; [Fig. 7]). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 May 2024.

Preliminary showing March 2024 is hottest for the 10th month in a row on record at about roughly 1.65C above preindustrial, wont know final figures for another week.

James Hansen a former top scientist for NASA (who is known as the godfather of this topic) sounded the alarm back in 2022 and released a report titled Global Warming in the Pipeline. It’s perplexing for them because EEI (Earths Energy Imbalance) is hard to measure against a climate response time, there are so many factors involved to knowing how our weather will respond and when with accuracy. That report goes in great detail and James and his team predicted 2023 & 2024 to be hottest back in 2022 based on their modeling samples and that our EEI will continue to get worst.

Im noticing earthquakes are happening so often now, my app on phone is constantly beeping of an earthquake of mag 5.0+ literally every few minutes now. I don't recall ever seeing that magnitude as the norm before.

Reading this Bloomberg report, the ship made a mayday call prior to hitting the bridge and authorities were able to stop cars from going onto the bridge therefore saving lives. Watching the video above, you can see the reduction of vehicles passing through overtime. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ship-s-mayday-call-before-baltimore-bridge-crash-saved-lives-1.2051838#:~:text=(Bloomberg) -- A mayday warning,Maryland Governor Wes Moore said.

Totally agree, Scientists have talked about Global Warming since the late 1800s when they first made the prediction that the atmosphere carbon dioxide could alter the surface temperature through a greenhouse effect. It wasn’t until 1938 when they established that connection. James Hansen went in front of congress committee in 1988 and the term climate change came into being used. To be clear Global Warming and Global Dimming causes climate change which is known as a feedback loop generated from the two phenomenons.

Yeah for sure, but the intensities of these two phases are getting stronger each time. Where I am now, we are in drought and Environment Canada state that we may have a stronger fire season this year. Not looking forward to that.

Global Ocean heat also hit record levels every single day this year, I saw a big drop for a few days but now it’s climbing back up sharply again. https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/

Global Temperature Update for February 2024 Global Temperature for the month of February is the hottest on record by a leap. Global surface temperature was recorded at 1.44C (1951-1980 mean) or 1.73C (1880-1920 mean). We are currently at 1.64C for the year so far above the pre industrial (1880-1920 mean) We have averaged 1.50C for the last 12 months.

EL Niño is ending, ENSO Neutral by April/May then quick transition to La Niña. EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS 14 March 2024 ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch Synopsis: A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (83% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (62% chance). During February 2024, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to weaken across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In the last week, below-average SSTs emerged in a small region of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (~100°W; [Fig. 1]). The weekly Niño indices weakened but remained positive, with the latest value in Niño-3.4 standing at 1.4°C [Fig. 2]. Area-averaged subsurface temperature anomalies were slightly negative [Fig. 3], reflecting the consequences of an upwelling Kelvin wave and associated below-average temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level winds were near average over most of the equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific. Convection was enhanced near the Date Line and was suppressed near Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a weakening El Niño. The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during summer 2024 [Fig. 6]. While different types of models suggest La Niña will develop, the forecast team favors the dynamical model guidance, which is slightly more accurate for forecasts made during this time of year. Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events. In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (83% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (62% chance; [Fig. 7]). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 April 2024.

Seems to be a lot of action around the Thwaites Glacier ice shelf lately, saw some sat images this week and appears the ice is breaking faster than ever. Perhaps this glaciologist research about thwaites collapsing in 5 years could become true. https://www.npr.org/2021/12/18/1065547278/scientist-explains-how-a-crumbling-glacier-could-shrink-coastlines-globally

From what I read, about 10% of greenhouse emission and that based on about a billion cows.

Another record on the daily CO2 reading, it was measured at 426.50 on February 2, 2024 An average increase is usually around 2.5-2.8ppm for a 10 year period, and right now its averaging at about 5.75ppm Maximum usually hit around May. https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/weekly.html February 24: 425.08 ppm February 23: Unavailable February 22: Unavailable February 21: 425.28 ppm February 20: 425.27 ppm Last Updated: February 25, 2024 Week beginning on February 18, 2024: 425.21 ppm Weekly value from 1 year ago: 419.68 ppm Weekly value from 10 years ago: 398.53 ppm Last updated: February 25, 2024

3 years in a row dipping below 2m sq km. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/24/antarctica-sea-ice-reaches-alarming-low-for-third-year-in-a-row#:~:text=For the third year in,satellite measurements started in 1979. “For the third year in a row, sea ice coverage around Antarctica has dropped below 2m sq km – a threshold which before 2022 had not been breached since satellite measurements started in 1979”

It’s been very mild where I am, I think we had one good day of snow and thats about it.

Berkeley Earth have stated that the month of February is on track to be the hottest in recorded history. https://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/60694/20240219/scientists-expects-record-breaking-temperature-february-due-human-made-global.htm

John, totally agree with you on those scriptures. If AMOC did collapse, I would expect it to be sometime during the great tribulation, not before. Here's a quote from this article about the severity of AMOC if it does happen. https://midmichigannow.com/news/nation-world/ocean-system-that-moves-heat-gets-closer-to-collapse-which-could-cause-weather-chaos "An AMOC collapse would cause so many ripples throughout the world's climate that are “so abrupt and severe that they would be near impossible to adapt to in some locations,”

As John mentioned, rain distribution will be a huge factor as many countries rely on seasonal rain for their crops. Europe would suffer massively as temperature plunge. Pretty much the entire planet would suffer from extreme heat to extreme freeze, food shortages, sea level rise, stronger storms. Pure chaos.

Our Oceans are hotter than ever this year, already breaking past our hottest point from last year. This heat in our ocean could cause our Ocean Circulation to collapse known as Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), If this happen as Scientists are now projecting to happen in the next few decades, it will be the end of this system, we will be in the great tribulation well before this starts.

Global Temperature Update for January 2024 Global Temperature in January 2024 hit another record month and is the hottest January on record. Global surface temperature was recorded at 1.21C (1951-1980 mean) or 1.53C (1880-1920 mean). 2023 was a year that broke records from the previous record (2016/2020) by a record margin, we can expect more records to be broken this year as this year we will feel the effects from this El Nino event to which will drive temperatures in the following year which in this case is in 2024. Scientists are baffled as to what drove the temperatures so much last year as El Nino usually lags in seeing its effects, the only theory they are seeing is the reduction of Sulfur oxides in ships in the Atlantic due to emissions regulations that went into effect on January 1, 2023. https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/PressBriefings/pages/CII-and-EEXI-entry-into-force.aspx More emission cuts are set to begin for ships on May 1 2025 in the Mediterranean Sea by as much as 80%, how much will this add to our already warming world. https://transport.ec.europa.eu/news-events/news/new-shipping-fuel-standards-reduce-sulphur-oxides-mediterranean-80-2022-12-16_en

Looking like a very short transition between El Niño to Neutral to La Niña, projection for La Niña should happen between June and August, however, this projection could be wrong as the Pacific surface is still quite warm right now indication El Niño is holding. Even if La Niña develops, temperature dip will be minimal. January was the hottest January on record. EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS 8 February 2024 ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch Synopsis: A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance). During January 2024, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. SST anomalies weakened slightly in the eastern and east-central Pacific, as indicated by the weekly Niño index values [Fig. 2]. However, changes were more pronounced below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with area-averaged subsurface temperature anomalies returning to near zero [Fig. 3]. Although above-average temperatures persisted in the upper 100 meters of the equatorial Pacific, below-average temperatures were widespread at greater depths [Fig. 4]. Atmospheric anomalies across the tropical Pacific also weakened during January. Low-level winds were near average over the equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific. Convection remained slightly enhanced near the Date Line and was close to average around Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a weakening El Niño. The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during summer 2024 [Fig. 6]. Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events. The forecast team is in agreement with the latest model guidance, with some uncertainty around the timing of transitions to ENSO-neutral and, following that, La Niña. Even as the current El Niño weakens, impacts on the United States could persist through April 2024 (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation). In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance; [Fig. 7]). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 14 March 2024.

Extreme heat in Australia, how do you survive in this without an air conditioner.