Lewis

Posted the wrong chart. So the average is more around +3.5C and a few of the plume models showing past +4.0C. Heres a chart made by a meteorologist that shows stripes of various strengths.

New EMCWF plumes forecast, a bit stronger than the May 1 forecast. The average the models are showing seem to be around the +3.0C above average range which would be historic and into the uncharted territory, and since the spring predictability barrier is pretty much over, this forecast should be taken seriously.

El Niño just crossed the +1.0C line, now at Moderate Strength.

Latest CFSv2 Forecast, This is the biggest forecast ever and this thing continues to grow.

This is really big news. The collapsing of the Thwaites Glacier sea Ice Shelf is now Imminent, it is projected to break away from Antarctica this year. The cracks are quite big and visible now. This sea Ice Shelf is no longer holding the Thwaites Glacier back. Once this land Glacier starts flowing off the continent and into the sea as Icebergs, we will start seeing a calamity because it will add sea level rise worldwide. How fast will this happen, don't know. We know it will be happening. Now with this massive El Niño being formed right now, all that heat in the Ocean will just speed things up, Antarctica is now 5th lowest on record. There is a Science Article that posted yesterday about this here. Great Tribulation is right around the corner.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS 14 May 2026 ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch Synopsis: El Niño is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-July 2026) and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% chance in December 2026-February 2027). In the past month, ENSO-neutral conditions continued, as indicated by near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was +0.4°C, with the westernmost (Niño-4) and easternmost (Niño-1+2) indices at +0.5°C and +1.0°C, respectively [Fig. 2]. The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 180°-100°W) increased for the sixth consecutive month [Fig. 3], with widespread, significantly above-average subsurface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific [Fig. 4]. Westerly wind anomalies were observed over the western equatorial Pacific at low levels and were evident over the central and east-central Pacific at upper levels. Convection was near average on the equator near the Date Line and was suppressed around Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral conditions. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average, including the NCEP CFSv2 [Fig. 6], favors El Niño to form by next month and persist through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27. While confidence in the occurrence of El Niño has increased since last month, there is still substantial uncertainty in the peak strength of El Niño, with no strength categorization exceeding a 37% chance [Figs. 7 & 8]. The strongest El Niño events in the historical record are characterized by significant ocean-atmosphere coupling through the summer, and it remains to be seen whether this occurs in 2026. Stronger El Niño events do not ensure strong impacts; they can only make certain impacts more likely (see CPC outlooks for probabilities of seasonal anomalies). In summary, El Niño is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-July 2026) and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% chance in December 2026-February 2027). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 June 2026

We are on track to be either hottest or second hottest for 2026, I know it doesn't look like it right now, it will take a turn soon. 2026 is trending towards an alignment of all 3 Ocean basins to be positive at the same time, which is a rare event. The Equatorial Pacific Ocean is Positive for 2026 The North Atlantic Oscillation is looking to be headed to positive forecast this year The Indian Ocean Dipole also showing heading to positive forecast this year April 2026 Global Temperature Update, 3rd Warmest April on Record +1.43°C Temperature Mean April (1880-1920)NASA Current record (2024) (+1.59C) Second (2025) (+1.51C) +1.48°C👇 For the Year Hottest year (2024) 1.56c Second hottest year (2025) 1.46c Third hottest year (2023) 1.45c +1.42°C👇 Last 12 Months

Once the Kelvin wave reaches max power, it will get crazy hot. That heat Pulse in the Ocean that is coming up that this article is describing is at least 7.0C above normal at minimum, the chart only goes to 7.0C, some experts say it may be as high as 9.0C, thats never been seen before. https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/super-el-nino-2026-record-breaking-intensity-forecast-weather-impacts-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ A major atmospheric change is about to start, as the latest oceanic data confirms the 2026 El Niño is intensifying below the ocean surface. New ensemble model runs from the ECMWF, NOAA, and BOM now align on a high-impact trajectory, with several forecasts suggesting this event could become the strongest El Niño in modern history, potentially surpassing the record-breaking event of 1877-1878. This “Code Red” scenario for the global atmosphere is being driven by a massive oceanic Kelvin wave that has grown more energetic in recent weeks. This subsurface heat pulse is expected to rise to the surface levels, acting as a “release valve”, that will kickstart the reorganization of global weather patterns, starting in the tropics.

Another update by NOAA on the forecast plumes, the forecast keeps increasing, some plumes are hitting 4.0C. This El Niño will be the hottest humans will experience if this model comes through. Guaranteed to be over 2.0C which is a Super El Niño, but looking like we will be over 3.0C.

Europe ECMWF released May 1st forecast for El Niño’s Strength. You can compare to the April 1st forecast above.

According to Hansen and NASA data, It’s looking like 2026 has a very big chance at toppling 2024 as hottest year based on comparison of 2026 current temperature trend with 2023 recorded data, the 2026 SST shows that it is consistently warmer by 0.13°C than 2023, that gap should be maintained throughout the year if not higher. The temperature change over land exceeds that over ocean by a factor of 2, land covers 30% of the globe, when you include that with the ocean gap of 0.13°C it implies a global warming of 0.17°C greater than 2023 according to GISS analysis. 2024 was greater than 2023 by 0.11°C, so that still makes 2026 greater than 2024 by 0.06°C. 2027 will be record breaking by large margins no matter what happens in 2026. Based on that data mentioned above, we should start seeing that red line crossing above 2024 soon if it is to overtake 2024 as hottest for the year.

More visuals, almost 1.0C into El Niño and its just the beginning of May.

Latest CFSv2 forecast. The 3 strongest historical Super El Niño on record in the graph and the current forecast (Black dotted line) to come, a much higher peak.

The NOAA CFSv2 is showing a greater forecast in heat coming with this coming El Niño, looking like the heat is gaining faster than previous models were forecasting. The scale only goes to 3C. Not looking forward to this Monster El Niño. ECMWF forecast of April 1 is showing samething, May 1 forecast should be interesting.

I wouldn’t be surprised, we are at already at record breaking wildfires worldwide this year comparing to any other year. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-area-burnt-by-wildfires-by-week?time=1..52&tab=line