Lewis

Once the Kelvin wave reaches max power, it will get crazy hot. That heat Pulse in the Ocean that is coming up that this article is describing is at least 7.0C above normal at minimum, the chart only goes to 7.0C, some experts say it may be as high as 9.0C, thats never been seen before. https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/super-el-nino-2026-record-breaking-intensity-forecast-weather-impacts-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ A major atmospheric change is about to start, as the latest oceanic data confirms the 2026 El Niño is intensifying below the ocean surface. New ensemble model runs from the ECMWF, NOAA, and BOM now align on a high-impact trajectory, with several forecasts suggesting this event could become the strongest El Niño in modern history, potentially surpassing the record-breaking event of 1877-1878. This “Code Red” scenario for the global atmosphere is being driven by a massive oceanic Kelvin wave that has grown more energetic in recent weeks. This subsurface heat pulse is expected to rise to the surface levels, acting as a “release valve”, that will kickstart the reorganization of global weather patterns, starting in the tropics.

Another update by NOAA on the forecast plumes, the forecast keeps increasing, some plumes are hitting 4.0C. This El Niño will be the hottest humans will experience if this model comes through. Guaranteed to be over 2.0C which is a Super El Niño, but looking like we will be over 3.0C.

Europe ECMWF released May 1st forecast for El Niño’s Strength. You can compare to the April 1st forecast above.

According to Hansen and NASA data, It’s looking like 2026 has a very big chance at toppling 2024 as hottest year based on comparison of 2026 current temperature trend with 2023 recorded data, the 2026 SST shows that it is consistently warmer by 0.13°C than 2023, that gap should be maintained throughout the year if not higher. The temperature change over land exceeds that over ocean by a factor of 2, land covers 30% of the globe, when you include that with the ocean gap of 0.13°C it implies a global warming of 0.17°C greater than 2023 according to GISS analysis. 2024 was greater than 2023 by 0.11°C, so that still makes 2026 greater than 2024 by 0.06°C. 2027 will be record breaking by large margins no matter what happens in 2026. Based on that data mentioned above, we should start seeing that red line crossing above 2024 soon if it is to overtake 2024 as hottest for the year.

More visuals, almost 1.0C into El Niño and its just the beginning of May.

Latest CFSv2 forecast. The 3 strongest historical Super El Niño on record in the graph and the current forecast (Black dotted line) to come, a much higher peak.

The NOAA CFSv2 is showing a greater forecast in heat coming with this coming El Niño, looking like the heat is gaining faster than previous models were forecasting. The scale only goes to 3C. Not looking forward to this Monster El Niño. ECMWF forecast of April 1 is showing samething, May 1 forecast should be interesting.

I wouldn’t be surprised, we are at already at record breaking wildfires worldwide this year comparing to any other year. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-area-burnt-by-wildfires-by-week?time=1..52&tab=line

OISST confirms we are now at +0.5C, we have entered El Niño territory. Ocean Heat just slingshot to record heat.

La Niña is no more, We are in ENSO neutral heading towards El Niño. EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS 9 April 2026 ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Niña Advisory / El Niño Watch Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are present and are favored through April-June 2026 (80% chance). In May-July 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (61% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026. During the last month, ENSO-neutral conditions emerged, as indicated by near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was -0.2°C, with the westernmost (Niño-4) and easternmost (Niño-1+2) indices at +0.3°C and +0.6°C, respectively [Fig. 2]. The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 180°-100°W) increased for the fifth consecutive month [Fig. 3], with above-average subsurface temperatures extending across the Pacific [Fig. 4]. Westerly wind anomalies were observed over the western equatorial Pacific at low levels, and were evident over the eastern Pacific at high levels. Convection was near average over the Date Line, with suppressed convection over western Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral conditions. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average, including the NCEP CFSv2 [Fig. 6], favors ENSO-neutral through April-June 2026, with a transition to El Niño thereafter. El Niño is likely because of increasing subsurface temperature anomalies and recent westerly wind anomalies over the western Pacific Ocean. However, the possible outcomes range from ENSO-neutral to a very strong El Niño during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter [Figs. 7 & 8]. The possibility of a very strong El Niño (1 in 4 chance of Niño-3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) largely depends on the continuation of westerly wind anomalies across the equatorial Pacific throughout the Northern Hemisphere summer months, which is not assured. In summary, ENSO-neutral conditions are present and are favored through April-June 2026 (80% chance). In May-July 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (61% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 14 May 2026.

The way things are looking with the heat forming out of the Oceans currently, Earth will be hottest or second hottest for 2026, Most likely a Super El Nino by fall, for sure hottest for 2027. March 2026 Global Temperature Update, Tied 4th Warmest March on Record +1.51°C Temperature Mean March (1880-1920)NASA Current record (2024) (+1.67C) Second (2025) (+1.64C) Third (2016) (+1.63C) Tied Fourth (2023&2026) (+1.51C) +1.49°C➖ For the Year Hottest year (2024) 1.56c Second hottest year (2025) 1.46c Third hottest year (2023) 1.45c +1.44°C👇 Last 12 Months

Modern wars can now be characterized as climate wars because they are structurally embedded with the release of massive GHG making them more destructive to global carbon budgets in a shorter time. The consensus among analysts now is that modern wars like US/Iran & Russia/Ukraine is one of the most carbon intensive activities on earth adding more to the climate budget than historical conflicts have due to the reliance to fossil fuels. You can read some of the impacts here and here

Massive heat dome in the US starting in the West heading East & Siberia leading into the Arctic, Sparing Canada for this week.

James Hansen released his latest communication about the latest El Niño forecast yesterday and shows we are on trajectory for a Super El Niño. The Graph on the left are previous Super El Niño we’ve had in the past and the one on the right are the moderate El Niños we’ve had in the past. You can see the 2025 - Present line is more in line with a Super El Niño trajectory rather than the moderate. We wont know 100% as we go further into spring, but everyday its looking certain.

The South Shetland Islands is part of Antarctica, lots of research centers there.