Lewis

July 2025 Global Temperature Update, Third Warmest July on Record +1.28°C👇 Temperature Mean (1880-1920)NASA Current record (2024) (+1.45C) Second record (2023) (+1.44C) +1.48°C👇 For the Year Hottest year (2024) 1.56c Second hottest year (2023) 1.45c +1.51°C👇 Last 12 Months

La Niña on the horizon, will most likely last until January. Then back to neutral. EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS 14 August 2025 ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is most likely through the late Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (56% chance in August-October). Thereafter, a brief period of La Niña conditions is favored in the fall and early winter 2025-26 before reverting to ENSO-neutral. During the past month, ENSO-neutral continued, with near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) established across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. With the exception of the easternmost Niño-1+2 index (+0.8°C), the latest weekly Niño SST index values ranged from -0.3°C to +0.0°C [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperature anomalies in the eastern Pacific Ocean became weakly negative over the past month [Fig. 3], with below-average temperatures generally observed between 25- and 200-meters [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central and eastern tropical Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the west-central and eastern tropical Pacific. Convection remained enhanced over a small region of Indonesia and was suppressed over the western tropical Pacific [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific reflected ENSO-neutral. The IRI predictions indicate ENSO-neutral is most likely to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2025-26 [Fig. 6]. However, similar to last month, the North American Multi-Model Ensemble favors La Niña conditions for a short duration during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter. Based on this guidance and recent changes in the tropical Pacific, the forecast team narrowly favors La Niña thresholds being reached in three overlapping, 3-month seasons (Niño-3.4 index ≤ -0.5°C during September-November, October-December, and November-January). In summary, ENSO-neutral is most likely through the late Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (56% chance in August-October). Thereafter, a brief period of La Niña conditions is favored in the fall and early winter 2025-26 before reverting to ENSO-neutral [Fig. 7]. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 September 2025.

World Oceans getting really hot again, catching up to the 2023 & 2024 records. https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=world2 Meanwhile, in the Mediterranean Sea is well above record temp, is this due to the Ship emissions control that took affect on May 1st? https://climate.copernicus.eu/sites/default/files/2025-07/C3S_Bulletin_temp_202506_FigH6b_timeseries_daily_sst_western_mediterranean.pdf

I’m sure you already know, there are many facets when it comes to making forecasts, weather balloons, Satellite Data, Buoys, so less workforce means less data collection, less data collection means less accuracy to forecasting and possibly timely forecasting. In the Monthly Global Temperature Update that I do, the data I collect to post the Monthly temperature came from a NASA scientist who no longer updates due to the cuts, actually she took early retirement, so now I have to retrieve the data from a different source and make the conversion from the 1951-1980 mean that is posted and convert it to 1880-1920 mean to get the data that was once all readily easily available to the public. Forecasts will still be there but may not always be as timely and accurate.

So far on track for second warmest year. June 2025 Global Temperature Update, Third Warmest June on Record +1.33°C👇 Temperature Mean (1880-1920)NASA Current record (2024) (+1.54C) Second record (2023) (+1.38C) +1.52°C👇 For the Year Hottest year (2024) 1.56c Second hottest year (2023) 1.45c +1.52°C👇 Last 12 Months

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS 10 July 2025 ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is most likely through the late Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (56% chance in August-October). Thereafter, chances of La Niña conditions increase into the fall and winter 2025-26, but remain comparable to ENSO-neutral. During June 2025, ENSO-neutral continued, with near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) prevailing across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño SST index values ranged from 0.0°C to +0.4°C [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperature anomalies were weakly positive and nearly unchanged from last month [Fig. 3], with mostly above-average temperatures established along the thermocline [Fig. 4]. Over the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, low-level wind anomalies were easterly and upper-level wind anomalies were westerly. Convection remained enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific reflected ENSO-neutral. The IRI predictions indicate ENSO-neutral is most likely through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2025-26 [Fig. 6]. In contrast, the North American Multi-Model Ensemble favors the onset of La Niña conditions during the Northern Hemisphere fall, though lasting a shorter duration than NOAA's requirement of five consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons. While the subsurface equatorial Pacific remains above average, easterly trade winds are predicted to strengthen in the coming month, which could portend cooler conditions. In summary, ENSO-neutral is most likely through the late Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (56% chance in August-October). Thereafter, chances of La Niña conditions increase into the fall and winter 2025-26, but remain nearly equal to ENSO-neutral [Fig. 7]. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 14 August 2025.

Late reply, it affects slightly but not directly, and looks like the shutdown was postponed by a month.

That was a typo, I meant Atlantic. Thanks for catching that.

Yeah it’s immediate, foreign countries do have their own Satellites with similar capabilities, but the DMSP Satellites were heavily relied on for US when providing models and forecasts as these Satellites use Microwave technologies and can see through clouds and see inside Storms. US will still receive forecasts through the old fashion way, not sure on international forecasts as the Hurricane Hunter Flights never go outside of the Atlantic Ocean. The same with viewing data for the Arctic, could not access data today, can only access through the Japanese Satellites for Sea Ice Extent only. This also comes at time when the Arctic is in a major heatwave right now and the Ice is melting in large numbers. Going to be an interesting year.

US Government cuts has now affected the Satellite Data and will be shut down permanently starting June 30th. The shutdown affects Hurricane Forecasts along with Arctic & Antarctica Sea Ice tables/data. For Hurricanes, using Satellites microwaves was crucial because not only did it track the storms but it was able to detect the rapid intensification of these storms. This is huge loss due to its real time weather forecasts and can detect the intensification a lot faster than what the Hurricane Hunter Flights can since they only fly every 6-8 hours, and a lot can happen in that time. article.

Sea Ice Extent in the Arctic back to lowest since records began 47 years ago, and is now at 66 days of lowest ice this year. The Peripheral Seas is taking a beating with all the warm air, meanwhile the High Arctic has stalled in melting.

ENSO Neutral EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS 12 June 2025 ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active Synopsis: ENSO-Neutral is likely in the Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (82% chance in June-August) and may continue into winter 2025-26, though confidence is lower (48% chance of Neutral and 41% chance of La Niña in November-January). In the past month, ENSO-neutral conditions persisted, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near average over most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño index values ranged from -0.1°C to +0.4°C [Fig. 2]. Subsurface ocean temperatures were near-to-above average (averaged across 180°-100°W, [Fig. 3]), with above-average subsurface ocean temperatures at depth in the central and western Pacific [Fig. 4]. For the month, low-level winds were easterly over the east-central Pacific, while upper-level winds were mostly near average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Convection was enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific reflected ENSO-neutral. The IRI and North American Multi-Model Ensemble predictions indicate ENSO-neutral is most likely through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2025-26 [Fig. 6]. The forecast team also continuously favors ENSO-neutral through early 2026, with smaller chances that La Niña could form during winter 2025-26. In summary, ENSO-Neutral is likely in the Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (82% chance in June-August) and may continue into winter 2025-26, though confidence is lower (48% chance of Neutral and 41% chance of La Niña in November-January; [Fig. 7]). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 10 July 2025.

Thanks Mike, there are many global issues going on right now and all of them are getting worst, but this one imo takes the cake. Global temperatures are reaching to a point of no return. It’s all timing, by the time the proclamation of peace and security is said, the events that we will experience from the destruction of our ice caps from human caused Global Warming will be felt worldwide. This will no doubt contribute to a great tribulation that we will experience on top of everything else. Within the next 5 years or so we should see an Ice free Arctic.

May 2025 Global Temperature Update, Second Warmest May on Record +1.35°C👇 Temperature Mean (1880-1920) Current record (2024) (+1.44C) +1.55°C👇 For the Year Hottest year (2024) 1.56c Second hottest year (2023) 1.45c +1.54°C👇 Last 12 Months

Not really anything new, it’s becoming more talked about for a long time but no one took its seriousness for the long term. Now that long term has arrived. That imbalance that remained on Earth equaled to about 800000 Hiroshima bombs worth of energy each day during the summer of 2023. in June/July 2023, the energy from the sun Earth received was 340.38 w/m2 and the energy radiated back to space was 338.41 with a positive balance of 1.97 m/w2. This year we’re half on the positive balance, but we should expect this to continue to get worse especially during El Niño since it affects the Albedo effect and with the reduction of Aerosols. 1.97 m/w2 is the highest positive imbalance we’ve ever measured since Satellites measurements started.