Lewis

James Hansen released his latest communication about the latest El Niño forecast yesterday and shows we are on trajectory for a Super El Niño. The Graph on the left are previous Super El Niño we’ve had in the past and the one on the right are the moderate El Niños we’ve had in the past. You can see the 2025 - Present line is more in line with a Super El Niño trajectory rather than the moderate. We wont know 100% as we go further into spring, but everyday its looking certain.

The South Shetland Islands is part of Antarctica, lots of research centers there.

Latest forecast suggest El Niño will be between a Very Strong and Super El Niño even with one model suggesting in the uncharted El Niño, This will be the strongest El Niño that we will experience since 1950 when record keeping began if this holds up going into spring.

Oceans heat is rising up fast and just bypassed previous record of 2024, so much heat in the deep ocean and it is making its way to the surface, this El Niño will be breaking records. It’s going to be very hot.

Reg Gas hit $2.05 per liter today in BC, while Diesel hit about $2.40 per liter at the high end, I travelled about 40 minutes to get a cheaper price at $2.05 per liter for Diesel yesterday. Conversion to Gallons $2.05 x 3.78541 = $7.76 ($5.67 USD) $2.40 x 3.78541 = $9.08 ($6.64 USD)

Signs Antarctica is starting to lose Ice gains just like 2023. On March 2nd it was 21st Lowest, today is now at 13th Lowest.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS 12 March 2026 ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory / El Niño Watch Synopsis: A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month, with ENSO-neutral favored through May-July 2026 (55% chance). In June-August 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (62% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026. La Niña continued in February 2026, with below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) persisting in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was -0.5°C, with the westernmost (Niño-4) and easternmost (Niño-1+2) indices at -0.2°C and +0.6°C, respectively [Fig. 2]. The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 180°-100°W) continued to increase [Fig. 3], reflecting the strengthening of above-average subsurface temperatures across the Pacific [Fig. 4]. Over the east-central equatorial Pacific, low-level wind anomalies were easterly, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly. Convection was suppressed over the Date Line and convection was enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system remained consistent with La Niña. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average, including the NCEP CFSv2 [Fig. 6], points toward ENSO-neutral through the late Northern Hemisphere Spring 2026, with a transition to El Niño thereafter. Even though model forecasts are relatively less accurate this time of year, the increasing odds of El Niño are supported by the large amount of heat in the subsurface ocean and the expected weakening of the low-level trade winds. If El Niño forms, the potential strength remains very uncertain, with a 1-in-3 chance that it would be "strong" during October-December 2026 (Niño-3.4 ≥ +1.5°C). In summary, a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month, with ENSO-neutral favored through May-July 2026 (55% chance). In June-August 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (62% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026 [Fig. 7]. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 April 2026.

Fourth warmest during a La Niña, now imagine a year from now with a very strong El Niño. Looking like El Niño will start to emerge late April/May. February 2026 Global Temperature Update, Tied 4th Warmest February on Record +1.54°C Temperature Mean February (1880-1920)NASA Current record (2024) (+1.74C) Second (2016) (+1.67C) Third (2025) (+1.56C) Tied Fourth (2020&2026) (+1.54C) +1.49°C👆 For the Year Hottest year (2024) 1.56c Second hottest year (2025) 1.46c Third hottest year (2023) 1.45c +1.44°C➖ Last 12 Months

Latest European forecast for 2026 El Nino. Strong or very strong El Nino forecast so far, probably know more precise next month. This could well be the strongest El Nino humans are about to experience. Lots of heat in the Ocean.

Most likely to develop before summer according to latest data.

This coming El Niño could become a Strong El Niño which was recently suggested by a climate scientist Leon Simons a couple of days ago, due to the amount of heat stored in the Oceans at record breaking levels. We could see a record this year for Hottest year, it seems breaking global heat records will be the norm now. James Hansen (NASA) suggest we will hit 1.7C+ as a 12 month mean for 2027 if it is a moderate El Niño, Zeke Hausfather (Berkeley) suggest a bit lower than 1.7C but if its a strong El Niño it can be at 1.7C. Hansen has all along maintained that fast feedback climate sensitivity is higher than the consensus of other scientists. So far its proving to be the case. So he is likely to be correct that the full earth system climate sensitivity is very high. February looking to be between 1.5C-1.6C

Looking like we are exiting La Niña.

Update of ENSO forecast on Feb 19th, earlier start to El Niño it seems. New Forecast Previous Forecast a week earlier Feb 12th

January 2026 Global Temperature Update, Fifth Warmest January on Record +1.43°C👇 Temperature Mean January (1880-1920)NASA Current record (2025) (+1.71C) Second record (2024) (+1.58C) +1.43°C For the Year Hottest year (2024) 1.56c Second hottest year (2025) 1.46c Third hottest year (2023) 1.45c +1.44°C Last 12 Months

I believe that makes it the 4th carrier in the Middle East.

Record Breaking westerly winds have been observed in the Western Pacific Ocean for the second time this year, this is very unusual behavior, and it is a cause of concern as the winds is driving warm water faster to South America. This behavior could trigger a surge in heat worldwide, 2026 could potentially be hottest if El Nino does emerge soon. if 2026 becomes hottest, 2027 will be even hotter.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS 12 February 2026 ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory Synopsis: A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in February-April 2026 (60% chance), with ENSO-neutral likely persisting through the Northern Hemisphere summer (56% chance in June-August 2026). La Niña continued in January 2026, with below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was -0.9°C, with the westernmost (Niño-4) and easternmost (Niño-1+2) indices at -0.4°C and 0.0°C, respectively [Fig. 2]. The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 180°-100°W) significantly increased [Fig. 3], reflecting the strengthening and expansion of above-average subsurface temperatures across the Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Atmospheric anomalies weakened due to subseasonal variability, but still reflected aspects of La Niña. Low-level westerly wind anomalies were present over the western equatorial Pacific, and upper-level westerly wind anomalies continued across the east-central equatorial Pacific. Suppressed convection was weakly evident near the Date Line and over the equatorial Maritime Continent, with enhanced convection located off the equator [Fig. 5]. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system remained consistent with La Niña. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average, including the NCEP CFSv2 [Fig. 6], favor the onset of ENSO-neutral in February-April 2026. The team consensus also reflects this outcome, with ENSO-neutral persisting through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2026. For the late summer and beyond, there is a 50-60% chance of El Niño forming, though model uncertainty remains considerable and forecasts made this time of year tend to have lower accuracy. In summary, a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in February-April 2026 (60% chance), with ENSO-neutral likely persisting through the Northern Hemisphere summer (56% chance in June-August 2026; [Fig. 7]). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12 March 2026.

A third carrier group USS Roosevelt is now positioned in the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea, right by Israel. https://x.com/FaytuksNetwork/status/2014338900584534307?s=20

This carrier group has arrived and there’s a big US military build up happening to the Middle East. Something tells me something big is about to happen.

A second carrier strike group USS George Bush has been deployed to the Mediterranean Sea. https://x.com/MonitorX99800/status/2012093947309646291?s=20

This is the new normal. 2027 will be a new record for sure.

Earthquake of 6.0 just happened in the Oregon area tonight, not exactly San Francisco but it’s about 500 miles away. I’d say their projection was close. Dutchsinse just released a video discussing this earthquake on a new video he posted just now.

NASA declares 2025 as second hottest on Record. WMO declares 2025 as the third hottest year on record @ 1.44C based on these 8 agencies average. 2 new additional dataset were added this year. NASA GISTEMP (1.45C) 2nd Hottest Hadley/UAE HadCRUTS (1.39C) 3rd NOAA GlobalTemp (1.41C) 3rd Berkeley Earth (1.44C) 3rd Copernicus ERA5 (1.47C) 3rd JRA-3Q (1.46C) 3rd 2 additional added this year DCENT (1.44C) 2nd China-MST (1.42C) 3rd December 2025 Global Temperature Update & Year, Fifth Warmest December on Record +1.35°C Temperature Mean (1880-1920) Current record (2024) (+1.65C) +1.45°C For the Year (NASA) +1.44°C For the Year (WMO)

The US has now deployed the USS Abraham Lincoln strike group to CENTCOM's Area of Responsibility.