Lewis

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS 14 May 2026 ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch Synopsis: El Niño is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-July 2026) and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% chance in December 2026-February 2027). In the past month, ENSO-neutral conditions continued, as indicated by near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was +0.4°C, with the westernmost (Niño-4) and easternmost (Niño-1+2) indices at +0.5°C and +1.0°C, respectively [Fig. 2]. The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 180°-100°W) increased for the sixth consecutive month [Fig. 3], with widespread, significantly above-average subsurface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific [Fig. 4]. Westerly wind anomalies were observed over the western equatorial Pacific at low levels and were evident over the central and east-central Pacific at upper levels. Convection was near average on the equator near the Date Line and was suppressed around Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral conditions. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average, including the NCEP CFSv2 [Fig. 6], favors El Niño to form by next month and persist through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27. While confidence in the occurrence of El Niño has increased since last month, there is still substantial uncertainty in the peak strength of El Niño, with no strength categorization exceeding a 37% chance [Figs. 7 & 8]. The strongest El Niño events in the historical record are characterized by significant ocean-atmosphere coupling through the summer, and it remains to be seen whether this occurs in 2026. Stronger El Niño events do not ensure strong impacts; they can only make certain impacts more likely (see CPC outlooks for probabilities of seasonal anomalies). In summary, El Niño is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-July 2026) and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% chance in December 2026-February 2027). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 June 2026

We are on track to be either hottest or second hottest for 2026, I know it doesn't look like it right now, it will take a turn soon. 2026 is trending towards an alignment of all 3 Ocean basins to be positive at the same time, which is a rare event. The Equatorial Pacific Ocean is Positive for 2026 The North Atlantic Oscillation is looking to be headed to positive forecast this year The Indian Ocean Dipole also showing heading to positive forecast this year April 2026 Global Temperature Update, 3rd Warmest April on Record +1.43°C Temperature Mean April (1880-1920)NASA Current record (2024) (+1.59C) Second (2025) (+1.51C) +1.48°C👇 For the Year Hottest year (2024) 1.56c Second hottest year (2025) 1.46c Third hottest year (2023) 1.45c +1.42°C👇 Last 12 Months

Once the Kelvin wave reaches max power, it will get crazy hot. That heat Pulse in the Ocean that is coming up that this article is describing is at least 7.0C above normal at minimum, the chart only goes to 7.0C, some experts say it may be as high as 9.0C, thats never been seen before. https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/super-el-nino-2026-record-breaking-intensity-forecast-weather-impacts-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ A major atmospheric change is about to start, as the latest oceanic data confirms the 2026 El Niño is intensifying below the ocean surface. New ensemble model runs from the ECMWF, NOAA, and BOM now align on a high-impact trajectory, with several forecasts suggesting this event could become the strongest El Niño in modern history, potentially surpassing the record-breaking event of 1877-1878. This “Code Red” scenario for the global atmosphere is being driven by a massive oceanic Kelvin wave that has grown more energetic in recent weeks. This subsurface heat pulse is expected to rise to the surface levels, acting as a “release valve”, that will kickstart the reorganization of global weather patterns, starting in the tropics.

Another update by NOAA on the forecast plumes, the forecast keeps increasing, some plumes are hitting 4.0C. This El Niño will be the hottest humans will experience if this model comes through. Guaranteed to be over 2.0C which is a Super El Niño, but looking like we will be over 3.0C.

Europe ECMWF released May 1st forecast for El Niño’s Strength. You can compare to the April 1st forecast above.

According to Hansen and NASA data, It’s looking like 2026 has a very big chance at toppling 2024 as hottest year based on comparison of 2026 current temperature trend with 2023 recorded data, the 2026 SST shows that it is consistently warmer by 0.13°C than 2023, that gap should be maintained throughout the year if not higher. The temperature change over land exceeds that over ocean by a factor of 2, land covers 30% of the globe, when you include that with the ocean gap of 0.13°C it implies a global warming of 0.17°C greater than 2023 according to GISS analysis. 2024 was greater than 2023 by 0.11°C, so that still makes 2026 greater than 2024 by 0.06°C. 2027 will be record breaking by large margins no matter what happens in 2026. Based on that data mentioned above, we should start seeing that red line crossing above 2024 soon if it is to overtake 2024 as hottest for the year.

More visuals, almost 1.0C into El Niño and its just the beginning of May.

Latest CFSv2 forecast. The 3 strongest historical Super El Niño on record in the graph and the current forecast (Black dotted line) to come, a much higher peak.

The NOAA CFSv2 is showing a greater forecast in heat coming with this coming El Niño, looking like the heat is gaining faster than previous models were forecasting. The scale only goes to 3C. Not looking forward to this Monster El Niño. ECMWF forecast of April 1 is showing samething, May 1 forecast should be interesting.

I wouldn’t be surprised, we are at already at record breaking wildfires worldwide this year comparing to any other year. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-area-burnt-by-wildfires-by-week?time=1..52&tab=line

OISST confirms we are now at +0.5C, we have entered El Niño territory. Ocean Heat just slingshot to record heat.

La Niña is no more, We are in ENSO neutral heading towards El Niño. EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS 9 April 2026 ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Niña Advisory / El Niño Watch Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are present and are favored through April-June 2026 (80% chance). In May-July 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (61% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026. During the last month, ENSO-neutral conditions emerged, as indicated by near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was -0.2°C, with the westernmost (Niño-4) and easternmost (Niño-1+2) indices at +0.3°C and +0.6°C, respectively [Fig. 2]. The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 180°-100°W) increased for the fifth consecutive month [Fig. 3], with above-average subsurface temperatures extending across the Pacific [Fig. 4]. Westerly wind anomalies were observed over the western equatorial Pacific at low levels, and were evident over the eastern Pacific at high levels. Convection was near average over the Date Line, with suppressed convection over western Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral conditions. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average, including the NCEP CFSv2 [Fig. 6], favors ENSO-neutral through April-June 2026, with a transition to El Niño thereafter. El Niño is likely because of increasing subsurface temperature anomalies and recent westerly wind anomalies over the western Pacific Ocean. However, the possible outcomes range from ENSO-neutral to a very strong El Niño during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter [Figs. 7 & 8]. The possibility of a very strong El Niño (1 in 4 chance of Niño-3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) largely depends on the continuation of westerly wind anomalies across the equatorial Pacific throughout the Northern Hemisphere summer months, which is not assured. In summary, ENSO-neutral conditions are present and are favored through April-June 2026 (80% chance). In May-July 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (61% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 14 May 2026.

The way things are looking with the heat forming out of the Oceans currently, Earth will be hottest or second hottest for 2026, Most likely a Super El Nino by fall, for sure hottest for 2027. March 2026 Global Temperature Update, Tied 4th Warmest March on Record +1.51°C Temperature Mean March (1880-1920)NASA Current record (2024) (+1.67C) Second (2025) (+1.64C) Third (2016) (+1.63C) Tied Fourth (2023&2026) (+1.51C) +1.49°C➖ For the Year Hottest year (2024) 1.56c Second hottest year (2025) 1.46c Third hottest year (2023) 1.45c +1.44°C👇 Last 12 Months

Modern wars can now be characterized as climate wars because they are structurally embedded with the release of massive GHG making them more destructive to global carbon budgets in a shorter time. The consensus among analysts now is that modern wars like US/Iran & Russia/Ukraine is one of the most carbon intensive activities on earth adding more to the climate budget than historical conflicts have due to the reliance to fossil fuels. You can read some of the impacts here and here

Massive heat dome in the US starting in the West heading East & Siberia leading into the Arctic, Sparing Canada for this week.

James Hansen released his latest communication about the latest El Niño forecast yesterday and shows we are on trajectory for a Super El Niño. The Graph on the left are previous Super El Niño we’ve had in the past and the one on the right are the moderate El Niños we’ve had in the past. You can see the 2025 - Present line is more in line with a Super El Niño trajectory rather than the moderate. We wont know 100% as we go further into spring, but everyday its looking certain.

The South Shetland Islands is part of Antarctica, lots of research centers there.

Latest forecast suggest El Niño will be between a Very Strong and Super El Niño even with one model suggesting in the uncharted El Niño, This will be the strongest El Niño that we will experience since 1950 when record keeping began if this holds up going into spring.

Oceans heat is rising up fast and just bypassed previous record of 2024, so much heat in the deep ocean and it is making its way to the surface, this El Niño will be breaking records. It’s going to be very hot.

Reg Gas hit $2.05 per liter today in BC, while Diesel hit about $2.40 per liter at the high end, I travelled about 40 minutes to get a cheaper price at $2.05 per liter for Diesel yesterday. Conversion to Gallons $2.05 x 3.78541 = $7.76 ($5.67 USD) $2.40 x 3.78541 = $9.08 ($6.64 USD)

Signs Antarctica is starting to lose Ice gains just like 2023. On March 2nd it was 21st Lowest, today is now at 13th Lowest.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS 12 March 2026 ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory / El Niño Watch Synopsis: A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month, with ENSO-neutral favored through May-July 2026 (55% chance). In June-August 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (62% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026. La Niña continued in February 2026, with below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) persisting in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was -0.5°C, with the westernmost (Niño-4) and easternmost (Niño-1+2) indices at -0.2°C and +0.6°C, respectively [Fig. 2]. The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 180°-100°W) continued to increase [Fig. 3], reflecting the strengthening of above-average subsurface temperatures across the Pacific [Fig. 4]. Over the east-central equatorial Pacific, low-level wind anomalies were easterly, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly. Convection was suppressed over the Date Line and convection was enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system remained consistent with La Niña. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average, including the NCEP CFSv2 [Fig. 6], points toward ENSO-neutral through the late Northern Hemisphere Spring 2026, with a transition to El Niño thereafter. Even though model forecasts are relatively less accurate this time of year, the increasing odds of El Niño are supported by the large amount of heat in the subsurface ocean and the expected weakening of the low-level trade winds. If El Niño forms, the potential strength remains very uncertain, with a 1-in-3 chance that it would be "strong" during October-December 2026 (Niño-3.4 ≥ +1.5°C). In summary, a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month, with ENSO-neutral favored through May-July 2026 (55% chance). In June-August 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (62% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026 [Fig. 7]. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 April 2026.

Fourth warmest during a La Niña, now imagine a year from now with a very strong El Niño. Looking like El Niño will start to emerge late April/May. February 2026 Global Temperature Update, Tied 4th Warmest February on Record +1.54°C Temperature Mean February (1880-1920)NASA Current record (2024) (+1.74C) Second (2016) (+1.67C) Third (2025) (+1.56C) Tied Fourth (2020&2026) (+1.54C) +1.49°C👆 For the Year Hottest year (2024) 1.56c Second hottest year (2025) 1.46c Third hottest year (2023) 1.45c +1.44°C➖ Last 12 Months

Latest European forecast for 2026 El Nino. Strong or very strong El Nino forecast so far, probably know more precise next month. This could well be the strongest El Nino humans are about to experience. Lots of heat in the Ocean.

Most likely to develop before summer according to latest data.