ENSO

[-Chris-]

The Weather West blog has a good article on what a strong El Niño means in general and then narrowed more specifically on the Western US and California.

 

https://weatherwest.com/archives/43880

[Lewis]

El Niño is at +1.73C as of Saturday, getting close to a Very Strong or Super El Niño Strength (+2.0C).

 

 

[Lewis]

Latest forecast on Nino 3.4, a bit stronger than June’s forecast.

 

[Lewis]

We have crossed the +2.0C (+2.01C) and Earth is now in a Very Strong (Super) El Niño status. Will take a few months before we start feeling the maximum effects of it.

 

 

[Lewis]

The earliest we reached Super El Niño Status was in August 30, 1997 until we broke that record two days ago on July 8th, 2026.

 

Forecast plumes are predicting between +3.0C and +4.0C above average for Earth on top of the +1.5C that we have accumulated since pre-industrial, which are temperatures that we have never seen before. The extreme weather that is coming will be historical.

 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

9 July 2026

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

Synopsis:  El Niño continues and will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it will persist through early spring 2027. El Niño strengthened over the past month, with a large area of sea surface temperature anomalies in excess of +1.0°C across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was +1.2°C, with the westernmost (Niño-4) and easternmost (Niño-1+2) indices at +0.5°C and +2.7°C, respectively [Fig. 2]. The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 180°-100°W) increased [Fig. 3], as a recent downwelling Kelvin wave deepened the thermocline and raised temperatures in the eastern Pacific [Fig. 4]. Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies were observed over the western and central equatorial Pacific. Convection was enhanced over the central and east-central equatorial Pacific and was suppressed over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were significantly negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a strengthening El Niño. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average, including the NCEP CFSv2 [Fig. 6], forecasts El Niño to intensify through 2026. Alongside model forecasts, a strong coupling of the atmospheric and oceanic circulation across the Pacific contributes to very high confidence that El Niño will continue through early 2027 [Fig. 7]. There is an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño during October-December [Fig. 8] that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950. Even the strongest El Niño events do not lead to the typical impact everywhere, but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in favor of expected outcomes (see CPC outlooks for probabilities of seasonal anomalies). In summary, El Niño continues and will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it will last through early spring 2027. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 13 August 2026.

Edited 1 hour ago by Lewis