Global Temperature Monthly Update

[Lewis]

Global temperature update for February 2021

 

February 2021 took a dive to +95C relative to the 1880-1920 base period. It was the 14th warmest February in the 1880-2021 period. The February’s in 2011, 2012, 2013 & 2014 were colder.

 

As noted in the Januarys update, this La Niña year will provide some indication of whether the apparent acceleration of global warming in 2016-2020 is real. The linear trend line (the red line) reaches 1.5C in the early 2040s. However, if there is a real acceleration of global warming, 1.5C average temperature could be reached by 2030 or sooner.

 

The relevant quantity to watch is the 12-month running mean (the blue curve). It will decline further in the next two months because of the high global temperatures in March and April 2020, but the question is: how far?

 

Solar irradiance is the largest cause of sub-decadal climate forcing variability among measured forcing (aerosols being unmeasured). Solar cycle minimum was reached in 2019, which yields maximum cooling effect now, due to a 1-2 year lagged response. So, if the 12-month mean does not fall much below the red trend line, it suggests that there is a real warming acceleration that could implicate an aerosol reduction.

 

Below are the global maps of temperature anomalies for January and February 2021. Most of North America experienced a remarkable swing from an unusually warm January to an unusually cool February. Record break cold in the central United States had a disastrous impacts, especially in Texas.

 

[Lewis]

Global temperature update for March 2021

 

March 2021 global temperature was +1.16C relative to the 1880-1920, the 8th warmest March since 1880. Monthly temperature continues to fall well below last year’s level.

 

 

The 12 month running mean global temperature (blue curve line, graph below) is still above the linear trend line based on the 1970-2015 global temperature, but it will continue to decrease as long the red curve continues to fall below the green curve. We need to see to what degree there is a global warming acceleration. 

 

 

The current NCEP (NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Prediction) forecast has tropical temperature headed for a double dip La Niña (Graph Below) in which case the global temperature may cool off further. ENSO forecasts fluctuate a lot, it seems that the tropic are inherently unpredictable or the modellers still have some work to do.

 

[Lewis]

Global temperature update for April 2021

 

April 2021 took a dive to +74C relative to the 1880-1920 base period. It was the 9th warmest April in the 1880-2021 period.

 

 

Global temperature in April continues to be much less than a year ago. See figure above left. La Niña is the principal cause of this years temperature change, we are in a moderately strong La Niña. See figure above right. Noaa’s National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) current forecast suggests that tropical temperatures are headed for a double dip La Niña and that 2021 will be much cooler than 2020.

 

So the big question is: does this mean that the global cooling this year imply that the apparent global warming acceleration of the past six years was a misleading deviation rather than a significant change of the warming rate, the answer is no.

 

Global temperature will ultimately respond to global climate forcing. We know that earth is now out of energy balance (more energy coming in than going out) at a record imbalance, close to +1W/m2. Greenhouse gases (GHGs) continue to increase rapidly and there is growing evidence that human made aerosols are decreasing. Aerosols have a cooling effect, so they partially offset GHG warming, but that offset is now decreasing.

 

What is the primary drive for global warming: it is Greenhouse gases.

 

 

The Methane (CH4) growth rate is shocking. A CH4 increase causes tropospheric ozone and stratospheric water vapour (H20) to also increase. Including these indirect effects, the climate forcing by observed CH4 growth is half as large as the climate forcing by CO2.

 

 

The CO2 growth rate is now a bit below the peaks that occur in conjunction with strong EL Niño. However, the CO2 growth rate is not declining. CO2 growth rate has not even slowed as a result of the reduced economic activity associated with COVID-19.

 

 

The N2O growth rate (the third strongest greenhouse gas) continues to increase.

 

 

[Lewis]

Global temperature update for May 2021

 

 

 

May 2021 global temperature was +1.07C relative to the 1880-1920 (0.80C to the 1951-1980 mean), the 6th warmest May since the 1880-1920 base period. The temperature was well below a year earlier (see above figure) as expected due to the La Niña that peaked in November 2020. Global temperature anomalies are correlated with ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation), with global temperature lagging the Nino 3.4 index by 5 months on average (see fig 1 in April’s update). 

 

The 12-month running mean global temperature (blue line in fig below) at 1.13C is now near the 1970-2015 trend line. This 12 month mean should continue to fall during the next six months, reaching a minimum in November. It is very likely that the year 2021 will rank among 10 the warmest years on record, with less than 2% chance for it to rank the 5 warmest years on record.

 

 

On the longer run, global temperature will increase in response to the present large planetary energy imbalance (absorbed solar energy exceeds thermal emission to space by about +1W/m2) and the continuing growth of human made greenhouse gases. In addition. Solar irradiance reached the minimum of the present solar cycle during 2019, so about the next six years solar irradiance will add a small positive (warming) forcing (global temperature response to solar cycle forcing lags the solar cycle by 1-2 years due the climate system’s thermal inertia)

 

Global temperature should reach about 1.5C or higher in conjunction with the next El Niño that is projected to come between 2023 and 2026.

 

Local monthly temperature anomalies routinely exceed global mean warming. Here’s a recap for May

 

Canada

Coldest May since 2011

 

United States

Droughts emergencies declared parts of the west, with many reservoirs at low levels. Slow moving thunderstorms across parts of the Gulf coast in early May brought torrential rain and flash floods to many countries.

 

Europe

Coldest May since 2004

 

UK

Coldest May since 1996

 

Germany

Coldest May since 2010

 

Africa

Sixth warmest may on record

 

Asia

Second warmest May on record behind 2020 

 

Hong Kong

Warmest May on record

[Lewis]

Global Temperature Update for June 2021

 

Global Temperature in June was the second warmest in the 141 year record since 1880 (When measurements of adequate accuracy and spatial coverage began)

The warmest June’s were 2020 & 2019 tied (+1.21C), 2021 (+1.13C) based on 1880-1920 base period. It was +85C relative to the 1951-1980 base period. High temperature anomalies were notable in Northwest North America, Northeast SIberia, and a horseshoe-shaped area covering much of Europe and Western Asia. See below photo

The Pacific Northwest heatwave continued into July with daily temperatures exceeding prior records by several degrees, an extreme that merits discussion.

 

 

One proffered explanation is the “fat tail” of climate sensitivity, but that fat tail refers to different physical effects and is a wrong explanation for the Pacific Northwest heatwave. A correct partial explanation is implicit in the “bell curve” for inter annual variability of local temperature based on observations. The photo below shows that the warming of the past half-century has caused the bell curve to shift to the right and develop a long, fat tail. A summer that is three or more standard deviations warmer than the 1951-1980 average-  which almost never occurred during the 1951-1980 - is now rather common.

 

 

The shifting bell curve due to global warming can account for record temperatures in the U.S. Southwest this week, but a special factor contributed to the remarkable Pacific Northwest heatwave. Jacob and Reeder discuss the meteorological origin of an extreme atmospheric Rossby (planetary) wave with a slow-moving high-pressure system that essentially parked over the Pacific Northwest. Rossby waves are associated with waggles (undulations) of the upper tropospheric jet stream and are normal part of mid-latitude weather systems.

 

Rossby waves, the upper tropospheric jet stream, and storm tracks guided by the jet stream are all related, and all are affected by the global warming caused by increasing greenhouse gases. The jet stream is driven by the temperature gradient from middle to polar latitudes. An especially cold Arctic tends to cause a strong, tightly-wound jet stream. However, an increased greenhouse effect warms the Arctic more than mid-latitudes, reducing the temperature radiant, this slowing the jet stream and allowing it to have more extreme waggles. This was likely a contributing factor in the Pacific Northwest heatwave.

 

Such dynamical effects are of course included photo above, because they are based on observations and is for seasonal mean temperature anomalies. Effects of a more undulating jet stream may be more prominent in a similar analysis for short-term heatwaves.

 

 

Global temperature in June 2021 was close to being a record (see photo above) despite the fact that global temperature now is under the influence of the recent strong La Niña (see photo below). Global temperature is correlated with ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation), with global temperature lagging the Nino 3.4 index by 5 months on average (see photo in the April 2021 update)

 

 

By Northern Hemisphere summer, ENSO forecasts for the following winter become reasonably reliable, so the NOAA NCEP forecast of a double-dip La Niña (see above photo) is probably reliable. Nevertheless, the 12-month running mean global temperature (see below photo) is probably near a minimum, because it is not difficult for global temperature in upcoming months to match the temperatures 12-month-earlier temperatures that were cooled by a strong La Niña.

 

 

Thus it is of interest to compare the current “hiatus” in global warming with the prior, more “famous” hiatus, as shown by the horizontal purple bars in the above photo. Global warming between those two periods is 0.37C, which is a rate of 0.24C per decade. That rate exceeds the longer term trend of 0.18C per decade, indicative of the global warming acceleration during the past decade. In the November 2020 update it was attributed that the acceleration to the measured increase in greenhouse gas growth rate and a presumed (but unmeasured) absolute decrease of atmospheric aerosols.

 

Global temperature anomalies in the two hiatus period are compared in the below photo, with the change between the two periods shown in the map on the right. Arctic warming is remarkably about 2C in just this short period of time (15 years). Other noteworthy features of the temperature change during this period are the cooling Southeast of Greenland and the absence of any significant warming in the Southern Ocean around Antarctica. These latter two features are consistent with the conclusion that most current Ocean models are unrealistically insensitive to fresh water injection from increasing ice melt.

 

 

Failure of models to simulate well the effects of increasing ice melt lead the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to conclude that even scenarios with increasing greenhouse gas emission will only a slowdown of the Atlantic Overturning Meridional Circulation (AMOC) and a sea level rise only of the order of 1 meter or less. It’s concluded, on the contrary that such greenhouse gas scenarios will cause complete shutdown of the AMOC and SMOC (Southern Ocean overturning circulation), with the latter spurring sea level rise of several meters.

[Lewis]

Global Temperature Update for July 2021

 

 

Global temperature in July 2021 was second warmest (+1.16C relative to the 1880 - 1920 baseline) by only 0.2C, July 2019 holds the record as hottest (see left graph above). I should also mention that these figures also include the pole temperatures. Being this hot is really remarkable because we are still under the influence of a fairly strong La Niña (see right graph above). Global cooling associated with La Niña peaks five months after La Niña peaks on average.

 

Something is going on in addition to greenhouse warming. The 12 month running mean global temperature (see blue curve right graph above) has already reached its local minimum. Barring a large volcano that fills the stratosphere with aerosols, the blue curve should rise over the next 12 months because Earths is now far out of energy balance, more energy coming in than going out.

 

How far is the recent global temperature above the 50 year warming trend? The best measure is probably the average deviation from the trend line of the two El Niño maxima and the two La Niña minima that followed. That average is 0.14C. That’s a lot, and we know that it’s a forced change, driven by a growing planetary energy imbalance (see below graph)

 

 

 

Global temperature doesn’t change that much due to meteorological noise. The Ocean is a huge heat reserve and can burp up heat, that is the cause of most inter annual variability of global temperature. However, over the past several years the ocean has not been given up heat, however, it is gaining heat at the fastest rate on record. Global warming is being forced.

 

None of the measured forcing can account for the global warming acceleration. The growth rate of climate forcing by well mixed greenhouse gases is near the 40 year mean (see above graph) Solar irradiance is just beginning to rise from the recent solar minimum, it is still before the average over the last few solar cycles.

 

It follows that the global warming acceleration is due to the one huge climate forcing that we have chosen not to measure, the forcing caused by imposed changes of atmosphere aerosols.

 

It’s a shame that the Aerosol climate forcing isn’t being measured to take advantage of this vast geophysical experiment to improve our understanding. The human made aerosol forcing is almost as large as the CO2 forcing, but it is of the opposite sign, aerosols cause cooling.

 

 

 

[Lewis]

Preliminary reports are showing July 2021 was the hottest ever on record on earth.

[Lewis]

Preliminary reports from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) that 2021 was the 6th warmest on record since record keeping began.

[Lewis]

 

Global Temperature in 2021     Fig. 1.  Global surface temperature relative to 1880-1920 average.

Global surface temperature in 2021 (Fig. 1) was +1.12°C (~2°F) relative to the 1880-1920  average in the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) analysis.[1],[2],[3]  2021 and 2018 are tied for 6th warmest year in the instrumental record.  The eight warmest years in the record occurred in the past eight years. The warming rate over land is about 2.5 times faster than over the ocean (Fig. 2).  The irregular El Nino/La Nina cycle dominates interannual temperature variability, which suggests that 2022 will not be much warmer than 2021, but 2023 could set a new record.  Moreover, three factors: (1) accelerating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, (2) decreasing aerosols, (3) the solar irradiance cycle will add to an already record-high planetary energy imbalance and drive global temperature beyond the 1.5°C limit – likely during the 2020s.  Because of inertia and response lags in the climate and energy systems, the 2°C limit also will likely be exceeded by midcentury, barring intervention to reduce anthropogenic interference with the planet’s energy balance.

Fig. 2. 12-month and 132-month (thick curves) running-mean land and ocean temperatures.

Fig. 3. December, final 3 months, and annual 2021 surface temperature anomalies.

Most interannual variability of global temperature (Fig. 1) is related to the El Nino/La Nina cycle.  However, there are two anomalies that stand out and warrant comment: the warming jumps in 1940-1945 and 2015-2021. The 1940-45 warming seems to be largely an artifact of changing, inadequate ocean observations during World War II,  this conclusion receives confirmation from Fig. 2: There’s no 1940-45 anomaly in the temperature over land, where the thousands of meteorological stations provided time-consistent data from a sufficient number of locations even during the war.  If there were such a large anomaly of ocean surface temperature, it would affect temperatures over land, but there is no indication of that in Fig.2.  Accelerated warming of the past seven years requires an explanation.  The big jump above the trend line (Fig. 1) is not caused by the ocean exhaling heat. On the contrary, ocean heat content and Earth’s energy imbalance increased markedly. accelerated warming seems to be caused by a decrease of human-made aerosols; the moderately increased growth rate of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the past several years cannot account for the observed large increase of Earth’s energy imbalance. Warming over land is much larger than warming over the ocean.  The warming rate over land in the past several decades is 2.5 times larger than over the ocean (Fig. 2).  Larger warming over land helps explain why climate impacts are becoming much more noticeable even though global warming is now “only” about 1.2°C (mean for past 7 years).

Fig. 4. Monthly global temperature anomaly. Right: Nino3.4 temperature anomaly for past 7 years.

Fig. 5.  Correlation of global and Nino temperatures is 60 percent with global temperature lagging the Nino3.4 anomaly by 5 months.

It was unusually warm in the Southeast U.S. and Greenland in December, the monthly average anomaly exceeding +5°C (+9°F) (Fig. 3).  Note that La Nina cooling increased at the end of the year consistent with the ongoing double-dip La Nina shown by the Nino3.4 index in Fig. 4. What are global temperature prospects in the near-term (1-2 years)?  The chaotic El Nino/La Nina cycle rules near-term, with exceptions for large volcanoes such as Pinatubo and a small effect of the solar cycle, Fig. 5, updated from that communication shows the consistent gap in the period 2015-2021 between actual global temperature and what would be expected given the Nino cycle.  We will soon be able to see whether this gap continues, disappears, or grows, but near-term global temperature change will be dominated by the Nino cycle. NOAA’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center provides a 6-second video that nicely helps us think about near-term prospects. It shows the equatorial temperature anomaly versus depth, which this week shows a positive temperature anomaly at depth 200m propagating from west to east as a manifestation of a downwelling eastward-propagating Kelvin wave. The warm anomaly should arrive at the South American coast in March, which would seem nicely timed to initiate an El Nino later in the year, if the fickle winds of Spring cooperate with an adequate westerly wind anomaly.  In that event, given the lags in the system, 2023 will be set up to break prior records for global temperature.  Let’s look at those lags. Global temperature, Nino3.4 temperature, and the temperature of the upper 300 m of the equatorial (longitude 100W-180W) ocean are compared in the upper part of Fig. 6 (for the period with data for all three).  The Nino3.4 and 300 m temperatures are highly correlated; the Nino3.4 temperature lags by the 4 months that it takes for the temperature anomaly to surface and reach the Nino3.4 area.  The Nino3.4 and 300 m temperatures are about equally good predictors of global temperature, both with correlations a bit less than 60 percent.  The 300 m temperature provides a longer lead time for a prediction. Based on the eastward-propagating anomaly in the 6-second video and the 9-month lag, we might say that there is a good chance of an El Nino warming beginning late in 2022  Coupled with the unusual positive global climate forcings discussed in the next section, that El Nino is likely to make 2023 the warmest year in the instrumental record.  Even if it’s just a little futz of an El Nino – like that in 2018-19 (see Fig. 4) – it could lead to record global temperature.

Fig. 6.  Global, Nino3.4, and Nino-region upper 300 m 12-month running-mean detrended temperature anomalies and their correlation. Global temperature lags Nino3.4 by 5 months and the 300 m mean temperature by 9 months.

Let’s look at NOAA’s forecast: Fig. 7.  Hmm, no El Nino in their forecast. Nature rolls the dice in the (NH) Spring.  Outcome depends on fickle, hard to predict variable winds, especially winds in the central Pacific Ocean.  A sufficient westerly wind anomaly can weaken the Bjerknes feedback that tends to keep the system in La Nina mode.  Normally, easterly trade winds draw up cold deep water near South America and push cold water westward in the equatorial region. The resulting east-west temperature gradient affects atmospheric pressure so as to strengthen easterly trade winds (the Bjerknes feedback). But if wind anomalies weaken the easterly trade winds, warm water in the west tends to slosh back toward South America, weakening the temperature gradient, weakening the Bjerknes feedback, and reducing upwelling of cold water.  Conditions may be ripe for an El Nino that would begin late in 2022 with a big impact on 2023 global temperature.  But El Nino depends on fickle wind anomalies. Prediction for the longer run is easier.

Fig. 7.  Latest NCEP forecast.[7] In August the ensemble mean is still in La Nina mode(<0.5C).

Fig. 8.  Solar irradiance and sunspot numbers (data sources are here).

Long-term global temperature change is driven by natural and human-made forcings.  A forcing is an imposed perturbation of Earth’s energy balance.  For example, if the Sun’s brightness increases, the Earth is temporarily out of energy balance – more energy coming in than going out – so it will warm over time (with a lag due mainly to the ocean’s thermal inertia) to restore balance. We have been measuring solar irradiance accurately for almost half a century and have not found a long-term change, but there is a cyclic variability with the solar magnetic cycle of about 0.1 percent (Fig. 8).  Earth absorbs about 240 watts per square meter of solar energy (averaged over Earth’s surface).  So the full amplitude of this cyclic variability of the solar forcing is ~0.25 W/m2.  This should induce a cyclic variability of global temperature with full amplitude only of the order of 0.1°C.  That cyclic temperature variability does show up in the temperature record, but it’s hard to see because of larger changes associated with other forcings and the variability caused by El Ninos. A much larger forcing is caused by increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs), i.e., gases that absorb infrared (heat) radiation. Earth’s radiation to space emerges from all levels in the atmosphere and the surface, because the opacity of the atmosphere varies with wavelength in the infrared.  If the amount of GHGs increases, the opacity increases and the radiation emerges from a higher level in the atmosphere (it emerges mainly from the level where the opacity ~ 1, but you don’t need to worry about that).  Temperature falls off with height, so the radiation to space decreases when GHGs increase, and the planet will warm up to restore energy balance.  It’s easy to calculate the energy imbalance (i.e., the climate forcing) caused by any increase of GHG amount – it’s a simple radiation calculation, well tested in the laboratory and theory. The total human-made GHG forcing – from preindustrial time to 2022 – is about 4 W/m2.  This is partially offset by the negative forcing of human-made aerosols (fine airborne particles) that mainly increase Earth’s reflectivity, the aerosol forcing being about –1.5 W/m2.[8]  Of the net forcing of about 2.5 W/m2, about 1.5 W/m2 has been “used up” in causing the observed global warming of 1.2°C.  The remaining 1 W/m2 is Earth’s present energy imbalance.

Fig. 9.  Annual growth of greenhouse gas (GHG) climate forcing (red is trace gases, mainly CFCs).  RCP2.6 is a greenhouse gas scenario designed to keep global warming below 2°C.

If we stabilized atmospheric composition at today’s GHG amounts, we would get about 0.5-1°C further warming, depending on how long we wait. The big problem is that we are not stabilizing GHG amounts in the air.  The colorful “truth” diagram (Fig. 9) provides a simple, precise measure of how the largest human-made drive of global warming is changing.  This diagram shows how much additional climate forcing is being added each year by the still growing amount of GHGs in the air.  It’s more than 0.04 W/m2 per year – that’s almost half a watt per decade, and it is not declining.  At the time of the Paris Climate Accord (2015), popular GHG scenarios were RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, where the numbers are the GHG forcing in 2100.  RCP2.6 was designed to keep global warming below 2°C.  RCP2.6 has the net growth of GHGs becoming negative during the 2040s. There is a huge gap between the path that the real world is following (the top edge of the red area) and the scenario to keep warming below 2°C.  We could close that gap by extracting CO2 from the air and burying it, but the cost for extraction has reached $2.5-5.1 trillion for the single year (2021 cost estimates).

Edited January 14, 2022 by Lewis

[Lewis]

Global Temperature Update for January 2022

 

Global Temperature in January was tied for 5th warmest in the 142 year record since 1880. Warmest January’s were 2020 (1.18C), 2016 (1.17C), 2017 (1.03C), 2007 (0.94C), 2019 & 2022 (0.93C) and 2021 (0.86C) relative to the 1880 - 1920 baseline.

 

A strong double dip La Niña for the past two years brought global temperatures back to the 50 year trend line which causes some people to doubt the reality of a global warming acceleration. However, there is anticipation in the scientific community that global temperatures will rise steeply well above the trend line. How steeply global temperatures rises depends in part on the hard to predict ENSO.

 

The full range of Niño predictions by climate models extends from a strong La Niña to a super El Niño, currently models (see graph below)are showing El Niño neutral until late 2022. One of the models just touches the +0.5C Niño3.4 temperature that separates Niño neutral from El Niño, another model leaps to a 2.0C El Niño, while three models go below -0.5C into La Niña Territory.

 

Should El Niño begin by end of this year, 2023 will most likely be the warmest on record and even hit the 1.5C target or higher. Even if El Niño was as weak as the one in 2019 it would still produce record temperatures, because the earth is now substantially out of energy balance.

 

 

 

Edited February 21, 2022 by Lewis

[Lewis]

Global Temperature Update for February 2022

 

Global Temperature in February was 5th warmest in the 142 year record since 1880. Warmest February’s were 2016 (1.34C), 2020 (1.26C), 2017 (1.12C), 2019 (0.92C), 2022 (0.90C) relative to the 1880 - 1920 baseline.

 

In the topic of ENSO, recently, there was a Kelvin wave that was carrying a subsurface warm anomaly across the Pacific Ocean but it petered out as it approached the South American coast, very doubtful it will have enough effect at the surface to spur a transition of ENSO toward the El Niño phase. Most of the warm anomaly is pulling back to the Western Pacific Ocean where it will strengthen and reload for another run. 

 

So far we will see a continuation of La Niña and its impact should be another strong tropical storm in the Atlantic this year.

 

It’s safe to say that 2022 is not going to challenge the 2016/2020 record global temperature, but 2022 should beat 2021 even if La Niña continues because Earth presently has record planetary energy imbalance.

 

 

Edited March 15, 2022 by Lewis

[surfergirl]

Thanks for letting me into the group. 

Very interesting. We are really experiencing a lot of the La Nina ATM. Since November 2021 we've had Sooooo much rain.

So much devastating flooding. From QLD to Lismore NSW and western Sydney. And Sth coast.

It's raining. No escape ATM.

[Lewis]

17 hours ago, surfergirl said:

Thanks for letting me into the group. 

Very interesting. We are really experiencing a lot of the La Nina ATM. Since November 2021 we've had Sooooo much rain.

So much devastating flooding. From QLD to Lismore NSW and western Sydney. And Sth coast.

It's raining. No escape ATM.

Oh my pleasure, welcome to the group.

 

Yeah it’s insane how much it rained, a while month in a day is so much. Just to understand the scope of level, here is a graph.

 

How bad was it where you are Gabe?

 

[surfergirl]

Hey Thanks for asking. This is my coast. South East. 2,hrs away from Sydney. We faired well. Friends schools at Bulli had to be shut down for a couple of days cause of Flooding. My kids highschool was closed for 2 days. As well. It was more affected up North. Queensland and Northern NSW. First time Manly is in the Northern Suburbs was flooded. Behind my aunt's area West area many places Flooded. We have a few Passes. They were closed cause of Landslide. Water over the roads and Waterfall and Sink holes up in the Highlands.  Railway line from Thirroul North Part of Wollongong was out of commission to Waterfall a Suburb not so far away.

Were we live it's really boggy. 

It's all part of the times we live in.

Wild Seas of Wollongong last week

[surfergirl]

A Kingdom Hall up at Ballina. It's a days drive up north

[Lewis]

Warmest March on record for the Arctic.

 

[Lewis]

Global Temperature Update for March 2022

 

Global Temperature in March was 5th warmest in the 142 year record since 1880. Warmest March’s were 2016 (1.36C), 2020 (1.19C), 2017 (1.12C), 2019 (1.11C), 2022 (1.05C) based on the 1951 - 1980 baseline

 

 

March was notably warm (Fig. 1), more than 1.3°C warmer than the average March in 1880-1920, despite continued La Nina cooling of the Pacific. Because of the present planetary energy imbalance its expected that 2022 will be substantially warmer than 2021. The imbalance is due to surging growth rates of GHGs (greenhouse gases), solar irradiance rising from its recent minimum, and perhaps the aerosol forcing becoming less negative, although the latter remains speculative given the absence of measurements of the global aerosol forcing.
The imbalance – excess energy coming in – is not enough to push the 2022 annual temperature above the 2020 record, but it will soon do that. Meanwhile, models forecasting the tropics favor continuation of the La Nina this summer, which favors strong tropical storms.
Note that monthly temperature anomalies on land now commonly exceed +2°C (+3.6°F), with the Arctic anomaly often exceeding +5°C (+9°F) (Fig. 2).

 

[Lewis]

Global Temperature Update for April 2022

 

Global Temperature in April was 5th warmest in the 142 year record since 1880. Warmest April’s were 2020 (1.16C), 2016 (1.07C), 2019 (0.99C), 2018 (0.86C), 2022 (0.82C) based on the 1951 - 1980 baseline.

 

 

 

The major hotspot in April stretched from Iraq to India and Pakistan, and toward the northeast through Russia (see above graph). Temperature exceeded 45°C (113°F) in late April in at least nine Indian cities, on its way to 50°C (122°F) in Pakistan in May, a meteorologist describing growing heatwaves since 2015 says “The intensity is increasing, and the duration is increasing, and the frequency is increasing.” Halfway around the world, Canada and north-central United States were cooler than their long-term average, but people in British Columbia and northwest United States remember being under their own record-breaking hotspot last summer.

 

Asia, as a whole, had its warmest April on record, dating back to 1910, with a temperature departure of +2.62°C (+4.72°F). This was +0.05°C (+0.09°F) higher than the previous record set in 2016.

 

* A high-pressure system brought unusually warm temperatures to parts of southern Asia during the last few days in April and into early May. The areas most impacted were India and Pakistan, where daily maximum temperatures were over 40.0°C (104.0°F). Several locations across the region set new maximum and minimum temperature records during this timeframe. According to Pakistan's Meteorological Department, Pakistan's hottest day during the month was April 30 when temperatures soared to 49.0°C (120.2°F) at Jacobabad (Sindh). This was a new maximum temperature record for the station, surpassing the previous record set in 2018 by 1.0°C (1.8°F). Karachi Airport had a minimum temperature of 29.4°C (84.9°F) on April 30, also a new record for the location. According to reports, the extremely high temperatures affected crops and the demand for power was the worst in six years.

* According to the Times of India, Delhi, India's capital, had a monthly maximum temperature of 40.2°C (104.4°F) — Dehli's second highest April maximum temperature in the location's 72-year record.

* Pakistan had its warmest April on record, which extends back to 1961, with a temperature departure of 4.05°C (7.29°F) above average. This was 0.9°C (1.7°F) higher than the now-second highest April temperature set in 2010.

 

April 2022 was Oceania's fifth-warmest April on record with a temperature departure of +1.71°C (+3.08°F). Aprils of 2002, 2005, 2016, 2018 had a higher temperature departure.

 

* Australia had an April temperature that was 1.61°C (2.90°F) above the 1961–1990 average — the seventh highest for April in the nation's 113-year record. The national minimum temperature for April 2022 was the third-warmest on record, while the maximum was the ninth-warmest for April. Regionally, Queensland, Tasmania, and the Northern Territory had an April temperature that ranked among the five highest for the month.

* New Zealand had a warmer-than-average April. Averaged as a whole, New Zealand had a national April temperature of 14.5°C (58.1°F), which is 1.3°C (2.3°F) above the 1981–2010 average. This was New Zealand's warmest April since 2006 and the ninth-warmest April since national records began in 1909. According to NIWA, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was in a positive phase, which is associated with high pressure around the nation, which can bring warmer and dry conditions to the region. During April 2022, the SOI had its third-highest April value since records began in 1876. Only Aprils of 1904 and 2011 had a higher value.

 

Africa's April 2022 temperature tied with 2003 as the ninth-warmest April and South America had its 12th warmest April in the 113-year continental record. Despite Europe having a warmer-than-average April, its temperature departure did not rank among the top 20 warm Aprils. North America had a slightly below-average April temperature and it was its coldest April since 2018.

 

The contiguous U.S. had several states across the central and northwestern tier that had an April temperature that ranked among the 12th-coldest for the month.

 

 

Now onto the forecast of La Niña and El Niño. What can we expect.

Increasing climate extremes are occurring because of global warming that is now 1.16°C (2.09°F) for the 12-month running mean (See graph above). Background (Nino neutral) global warming (relative to 1880-1920) is now at least 1.2°C (2.2°F) as a result of accelerated warming since 2015. The current global temperature is reduced by a continuing La Nina, which is rather strong, considering the effect of increasing global ocean warming on the Nino index (See graph below). The La Nina seems set to last through the summer, possibly into next year according to models focused on the tropics (See graph below). Continuation of La Nina this summer favors strong tropical storms in the Atlantic region because the vertical wind shear that can decapitate tropical storms is minimal during the La Nina phase.

Despite the La Nina, we can be sure that 2022 will be warmer than 2021 because of the present record planetary energy imbalance. The next El Nino will bring record global temperature of at least +1.4°C, possibly 1.5°C. The basis for confident prediction is, again, the present planetary energy imbalance.

 

Edited May 23, 2022 by Lewis

[Lewis]

Global Temperature Update for May 2022

 

Global Temperature in May was the Fifth warmest in the 142 year record since 1880.

The warmest May’s were 2020, 2016, 2017, 2019 and 2022 (jointly with 2018 and 2021)

 

https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-may-2022

[Lewis]

Preliminary reports showing June 2022 was hottest ever globally.

 

 

[Lewis]

On 7/15/2022 at 10:17 PM, Lewis said:

Preliminary reports showing June 2022 was hottest ever globally.

 

 

Just to follow up on this. 

 

June 2022 came in second hottest, after 2020 and 2019 (tied for first) @0.93C.

 

 

 

 

 

[Lewis]

Preliminary reports shows July 2022 was tied for third hottest ever, making it 1.15C above the 1880-1920 while in a La Niña season.

[Lewis]

Global Temperature Update for July 2022

 

Global Temperature in July was the 6th warmest in the 143 (not 142) year record since 1880.

The warmest July’s were 2021, 2016/2019/2020 (tied for 2nd), 2017 and 2022

2022 came at +0.90C (based on the 1951-1980 baseline or +1.15C to the 1880-1920 baseline)

 

 

 

Previous post I mentioned it was third warmest, but it was third for North America and not global. Revised figures has now showed North America was second warmest for the month of July, more than 154 million people were under heat warnings or advisories.

In other Continents, Asia had its third warmest, South America had its Fourth warmest and Europe had its sixth warmest for July.

 

La Niña conditions intensified during July and are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere autumn and early winter (80% chance in September-November, dropping to 60% for December-February), NOAA reported in its August monthly discussion of the state of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. The odds of an El Niño event are no more than 6% into early 2023.

 

The impact of the current La Niña event may be boosted by a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO. The PDO is an index of sea-surface temperatures across the northeast and tropical Pacific Ocean that reflects some of the circulation aspects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The PDO can swing sharply from month to month, but usually it leans positive (warm) or negative (cool) for a few years at a time. Nearly every month since 2017 has had a negative PDO; July’s value was the lowest for any July since 1955 and the seventh lowest July value in NOAA data going back to 1854. When the PDO is negative, La Niña’s impacts often are more pronounced.

 

So as of right now, even under a cooling La Niña, global warming is tracking close to worst case RCP 8.5. We are at 1.2C above the 1880-1920 pre industrial at the moment.

 

 

 

Edited September 5, 2022 by Lewis

[Lewis]

Global Temperature Update for August 2022

 

Global Temperature in August was the 2nd warmest in the 143 year record since 1880. (NASA)

The warmest August’s were 2016 (+1.01C) and 2022 (+0.95C)

 

 

Globally, earth experienced the hottest summer ever for the months of June, July and August combined.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/09/15/hottest-summer-august-world/

 

 

China

It was the hottest August on record.

The extreme heat and drought that has been roasting a vast swath of southern China for at least 70 straight days broke the record for the longest heatwave days (40C+) in a row ever recorded on earth. 

It's dimmed skyscrapers, shut factories, darkened subways, and plunged homes and offices into rolling blackouts, forcing air conditioning to be unplugged -- and killed thousands of poultry and fish at farms hit by electricity cuts.

.

North America and Europe

They saw the hottest August on record

 

 

 

 

[Lewis]

James Hansen former top scientist for NASA, has mentioned in a report that Earth may reach average global surface temperature of 1.5C in 2024 if El Niño starts in the latter part of 2023.