ENSO

[Lewis]

Latest European forecast for 2026 El Nino. Strong or very strong El Nino forecast so far, probably know more precise next month. This could well be the strongest El Nino humans are about to experience. Lots of heat in the Ocean.

 

[Lewis]

 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

12 March 2026

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory / El Niño Watch

Synopsis:  A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month, with ENSO-neutral favored through May-July 2026 (55% chance). In June-August 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (62% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026. La Niña continued in February 2026, with below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) persisting in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was -0.5°C, with the westernmost (Niño-4) and easternmost (Niño-1+2) indices at -0.2°C and +0.6°C, respectively [Fig. 2]. The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 180°-100°W) continued to increase [Fig. 3], reflecting the strengthening of above-average subsurface temperatures across the Pacific [Fig. 4]. Over the east-central equatorial Pacific, low-level wind anomalies were easterly, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly. Convection was suppressed over the Date Line and convection was enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system remained consistent with La Niña. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average, including the NCEP CFSv2 [Fig. 6], points toward ENSO-neutral through the late Northern Hemisphere Spring 2026, with a transition to El Niño thereafter. Even though model forecasts are relatively less accurate this time of year, the increasing odds of El Niño are supported by the large amount of heat in the subsurface ocean and the expected weakening of the low-level trade winds. If El Niño forms, the potential strength remains very uncertain, with a 1-in-3 chance that it would be "strong" during October-December 2026 (Niño-3.4 ≥ +1.5°C). In summary, a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month, with ENSO-neutral favored through May-July 2026 (55% chance). In June-August 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (62% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026 [Fig. 7]. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 April 2026.