U.S. jobless claims fall more than expected

[trottigy]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/25/us-unemployment-usa-idUSKBN0TE1N120151125#tw

 

 

Nov 25 - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, drifting back to near 42-year lows as labor market conditions continue to tighten.

 

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 260,000 for the week ended Nov. 21, the Labor Department said on Wednesday.

 

The prior week's claims were revised to show 1,000 more applications received than previously reported. Claims have now held below the 300,000 threshold for 38 consecutive weeks, the longest stretch in years, and remain close to levels last seen in the early 1970s. Claims below this level are usually associated with a healthy jobs market.

 

 

 

[Julsey]

Of course, they don't count the people who have been unemployed for ages and stopped looking for work (discouraged workers), or people employed only part-time.  They took that out of their reports several years ago, to make things look better than they are.  The actual figures can be found here:

 

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

 

[kejedo]

This economist takes stats from two sources. A.- Brand new claims for unemployment benefits (which has already been seasonally adjusted and then revised). B.- Current Population Survey of sample households. Although the initial claimants for Unemployment benefits pictures a lower ratio, the ongoing claimants have risen. How could this be interpreted? "The four-week average of continuing claims rose 8,750 between the October and November survey periods, suggesting the unemployment rate will likely hold at a 7-1/2-year low of 5 percent this month," is the conclusion of the article.

More people already receiving unemployment cash benefits have stayed on as recipients, i.e, not found a job. I, for one, would not feel that the stated hypothesis is supported by these reports. Having worked for the Department of Labor, I have personally seen many statistical manipulations and/or faulty interpretations. 

p.s. the stats are also representative of two separate weeks, one being the week ending 11/14/2015 and the other regarding stats based on week ending 11/21/15.

 

 

Read more at Reutershttp://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/25/us-unemployment-usa-idUSKBN0TE1N120151125#4EtycJhUpVFXKVFy.9

Edited November 26, 2015 by kejedo

[trottigy]

Of course, they don't count the people who have been unemployed for ages and stopped looking for work (discouraged workers), or people employed only part-time. They took that out of their reports several years ago, to make things look better than they are. The actual figures can be found here:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

Even at this, the trend is good news - from 11.5% to 9.8%. It is good to see it steadily going down

Edit: Hey, remember when that list had it over 20%? It is less than half of that now. Things are really doing better in the US. Thanks for the link.

Edited November 26, 2015 by trottigy

[kejedo]

Even at this, the trend is good news - from 11.5% to 9.8%. It is good to see it steadily going down

Screenshot_20151125-195108.png

Edit: Hey, remember when that list had it over 20%? It is less than half of that now. Things are really doing better in the US. Thanks for the link.

This data table, when analyzed month by month shows little change.  I have not been following this, nationally, for awhile. I do know that New York went bankrupt due to unemployment benefit payouts. http://www.bizjournals.com/albany/print-edition/2013/03/29/ny-taxes-employers-to-rebuild-bankrupt.html.   There certainly do seem to be a number of definitions and measurements of unemployment.  Good to know.

Edited November 26, 2015 by kejedo

[trottigy]

I does not matter the definition. The trend regardless of definition is clearly downward. 11.5% to 9.8% (by that definition) is 1.7% less - year over year (oh, and good news!) See, my college degree in accounting is paying off

Edit: by the "official" rate it is only down .7%. I like seeing the other one better. Thanks for the link.

PS: The bizjournal link seems to be broken. Any chance we could get one that works? It would be good to get the full story. Was this referring to the 90s?

Edited November 26, 2015 by trottigy

[kejedo]

I does not matter the definition. The trend regardless of definition is clearly downward. 11.5% to 9.8% (by that definition) is 1.7% less - year over year (oh, and good news!) See, my college degree in accounting is paying off

I must admit, I have not been following employment tendencies. When I taught accounting, it was my least fave of the maths. Working on US Labor Statistics was one of my part time pioneer jobs. I guess they already paid off for me, so I haven't paid much attention lately. I agree with everything you have stated about trends. 

[trottigy]

I did find this RECENT link about NY unemploymet fund - http://www.pressconnects.com/story/news/politics/2015/11/20/new-york-unemployment-insurance/76128498/

 

“In 2013, we put into place sweeping reforms to fix New York’s broken Unemployment Insurance system in a way to help lower costs for employers, offer greater benefits for workers and increase the integrity of the program,” Cuomo said in a statement. “Today’s lower assessment is a direct result of these badly needed changes and one more way we are helping to move New York forward.”

 

The reforms also strengthened unemployment insurance fraud and prevention measures, as well as ensured employers are not charged for a former employee’s claim if it was the employee’s fault the job was lost.

 

In 2011, when Cuomo came into office, unemployment rates were 8.3 percent compared to the current 5.1 percent.

 

Due to the job growth, unemployment benefit payments in the state is estimated to be $2.4 billion this year compared to the $5.1 billion paid in benefits at the height of recession in 2009, which was largely borrowed from the Federal Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund.

 

 

 

It sounds like they DID have a serious problem, but thanks to the conitnued downward trend in unemployment - things have gotten better. It is now to the point that what they borrowed due to things at its peek in 2013 (2 years ago) are all paid off.

 

I hadn't done much in the past few months by way of analyzing unemployment. So, thanks for sending me on the path. I feel better now than I did.