ENSO

[Lewis]

ENSO Neutral continues…

The forecast models have been a bit off.

 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

12 September 2024

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch

Synopsis:  La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (71% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025. ENSO-neutral continued during August 2024, with near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The weekly Niño indices did not change substantially during the month, with the latest weekly index values varying between +0.2°C (Niño-4) and -0.4°C (Niño-1+2; [Fig. 2]). Below-average subsurface temperatures were also similar to those in early August (area-averaged index in [Fig. 3]). Negative temperature anomalies continued to dominate across most of the subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over most of the equatorial Pacific, and upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific. Convection was slightly enhanced over parts of Indonesia and was near average near the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Both the Southern Oscillation index and the equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral. The IRI plume predicts a weak and a short duration La Niña, as indicated by the Niño-3.4 index values less than -0.5°C [Fig. 6]. This month, the team relies more on the latest North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) guidance, which predicts La Niña to emerge in the next couple of months and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter. The continuation of negative subsurface temperatures and enhanced low-level easterly wind anomalies supports the formation of a weak La Niña. A weaker La Niña implies that it would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC's seasonal outlooks). In summary, La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (71% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025 [Fig. 7]. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 10 October 2024.

[Cool.As.Ice]

La Niña winters where I live are usually colder. Looks like I’ll be dealing with -40F temps this winter.

[Watching and Waiting]

La Niña and El Niño?  I know the effect they've had on our climate in No America mostly, but enjoyed watching this youtube presentation for a simplified explanation of the phenomenon earth-wide, with great graphics. It's about 16 minutes in length, but well worth it to help understand the nuances of @Lewis ENSO posts.

 

What La Niña Will do to Earth in 2025

[-Chris-]

Some interesting patterns in the sea surface temperature anomalies

 

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/5km/index_5km_ssta.php

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelvin–Helmholtz_instability

 

Someone also pointed out that similar patterns appeared in 2016.

 

[Lewis]

We’re likely to see more sudden jumps in Global Temperature as seen in the past two years, The jumps were in part in the decrease in NO2 & SO2 emissions (Emissions caused Global Dimming Phenomenon) from commercial ships and El Niño and uncontrolled increases in Greenhouse Gas like CO2 & CH4.

 

Looking back at the previous El Niño data, some of the temperature gains the earth received  became permanent gains. We should see a few more El Niño’s in the next 10 years and at least 1 becoming a Super El Niño (may be the last). On top of that more ship emission cuts next year in May 1st by 80% in the Mediterranean Sea will go into effect. Current estimate we should reach 2C Global warming by 2035 at earliest.

 

Don't really see how we will not be in the new system by then on top of everything else that is happening.

[Lewis]

If a La Niña does happen, it will be short and weak. ENSO neutral continues.

 

 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

10 October 2024

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch

Synopsis:  La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (60% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025. During September 2024, ENSO-neutral continued with near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. Similar to this time last month, the latest weekly Niño indices ranged from +0.2°C (Niño-4) to -0.4°C (Niño-1+2; [Fig. 2]). Below-average subsurface temperatures persisted [Fig. 3] across the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central equatorial Pacific, and upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the eastern Pacific. Convection was near average over Indonesia and was slightly suppressed over the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral. The IRI plume predicts a weak and a short duration La Niña, as indicated by the Niño-3.4 index values less than -0.5°C [Fig. 6]. The latest North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecasts were warmer this month, but still predict a weak La Niña. As a result of the warmer predictions and the recent weakening of equatorial trade winds, the team still favors a weak event, but has lowered the chances of La Niña. A weaker La Niña implies that it would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC's seasonal outlooks). In summary, La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (60% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025 [Fig. 7]. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 14 November 2024.

[Lewis]

ENSO neutral continues, an emerging La Niña is near according to forecasters.

 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

14 November 2024

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch

Synopsis:  La Niña is most likely to emerge in October-December 2024 (57% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025. Over the past month, ENSO-neutral continued, as evidenced by overall near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. Similar to last month, the latest weekly Niño indices ranged from +0.2°C (Niño-4) to -0.3°C (Niño-3.4; [Fig. 2]). Below-average subsurface temperatures persisted [Fig. 3] across the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. For the monthly average, low-level wind anomalies were easterly over a small region of the east-central equatorial Pacific, and upper-level wind anomalies were near average. Convection was suppressed over the Date Line and was weakly enhanced over eastern Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral. The IRI plume predicts a weak and a short duration La Niña, as indicated by the Niño-3.4 index values less than -0.5°C [Fig. 6]. The latest North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecasts are cooler than the IRI plume and predict a weak La Niña. Due to this guidance and La Niña-like atmospheric circulation anomalies over the tropics, the team still favors onset of La Niña, but it is likely to remain weak and have shorter duration than other historical episodes. A weak La Niña would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC's seasonal outlooks). In summary, La Niña is most likely to emerge in October-December 2024 (57% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025 [Fig. 7]. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12 December 2024.

[Lewis]

 

ENSO Neutral status still holding, but according to the latest Nino 3.4 it is showing that the SST has fallen sharply.

 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

12 December 2024

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch

Synopsis:  La Niña conditions are most likely to emerge in November 2024 - January 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely by March-May 2025 (61% chance). ENSO-neutral continued in November, with near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. Similar to the last couple of months, the latest weekly Niño indices ranged from +0.1°C (Niño-1+2) to -0.4°C (Niño-3; [Fig. 2]). Below-average subsurface ocean temperatures persisted [Fig. 3] across the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Over the western and central equatorial Pacific, low-level wind anomalies were easterly and upper-level wind anomalies were westerly. Convection was suppressed over the Date Line and was enhanced over western Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral. The dynamical models in the IRI plume continue to predict a weak and a short duration La Niña, as indicated by the Niño-3.4 index values less than -0.5°C [Fig. 6]. This prediction is also reflected in the latest North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), which continues to predict slightly cooler SSTs and weak La Nina conditions. The forecast team leaned toward predicting an eventual onset of weak and short-lived La Nina conditions, based on the model guidance and current atmospheric anomalies. Weak La Niña conditions would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC's seasonal outlooks). In summary, La Niña conditions are most likely to emerge in November 2024 - January 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely by March-May 2025 (61% chance; [Fig. 7]). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 January 2025.