ENSO

[Lewis]

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. The latest outlooks from the surveyed models suggest that an ENSO-neutral state is the most likely scenario for the remainder of 2019 and into the first quarter of 2020. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/#region=NINO34&tabs=Overview

 

ENSO outlook for December - Neutral

 

 

Outlook for January to April - Neutral

 

 

 

 

 

[Lewis]

Scientists predict 80% chance of an El Niño happening in late 2020 based on an earlier warning method.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/scientists-predict-el-nino-2020-163608017.html

 

Here’s a link regarding that earlier warning method, its based on the 18.6 year Lunar tidal cycle and El Niño.

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-33526-4

 

ENSO forecast from Columbia

 

Edited November 23, 2019 by Lewis

[Lewis]

Trending to a La Niña this year. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

 

[Lewis]

La Niña started in June according to NOAA. https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

 

Year.     DJ    JF    FM   MA    AM    MJ    JJ    JA    AS    SO    ON    ND

2020.    0.3   0.3   0.2   -0.1   -0.2    -0.7   -1.0  

[Lewis]

According to Australia, La Niña has officially started this month. Should last right through January/February.

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=SOI

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean

 

[Lewis]

NOAA’s climate prediction centre has declared a La Niña watch, most likely means a La Niña is likely to develop within the next six months.

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/july-2021-enso-update-la-niña-watch

 

[Lewis]

Latest news on La Niña 

 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the Internatio nal Research Institute for Climate and Society 9 December 2021

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis: La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2021-22 (~95%
chance) and transition to ENSO-neutral during the spring 2022 (~60% chance during April-June).

In November, the continuation of La Niña was reflected in the below-average sea surface temperatures(SSTs)extendingacrosstheequatorialPacificOcean(Fig.1). In the last week, all of the Niño indices were between -0.7oC and -1.2oC, with the largest departures occurring in the easternmost regions of Niño-1+2 and Niño-3. Below-average subsurface temperatures weakened slightly compared to the previous month, but a large pool of negative temperature anomalies still extended across the central and eastern Pacific, down to~200m depth. Low-level easterly and upper-level westerly wind anomalies persisted overmost of the equatorial Pacific. Enhanced convection and rainfall were observed over Indonesia and convection was suppressed over the central and western equatorial Pacific. The Southern Oscillation Index and Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index were more positive than the previous month. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system was consistent with La Niña.

The IRI/CPC plume average of forecasts for the Niño-3.4 SST index indicates La Niña will continue through the February-April 2022 season. The forecaster consensus anticipates a transition to ENSO-neutral sometime during the Northern Hemisphere spring, with chances for La Niña declining below 50% after March-May 2022. The chance of a moderate-strength La Niña declined slightly from last month’s update, but there is still a 59% chance of the Niño-3.4 index reaching a value less than -1.0oC for the November 2021 – January 2022 season. In summary, La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2021-22 (~95% chance) and transition to ENSO- neutral during the spring 2022 (~60% chance during April-June; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

La Niña is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thurs. Dec. 16th).

The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 13 January 2022. 

[Lewis]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

13 January 2022

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis:  La Niña is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring (67% chance during March-May 2022) and then transition to ENSO-neutral (51% chance during April-June 2022). In December 2021, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean were consistent with a mature La Niña [Fig. 1]. With the exception of the westernmost Niño-4 region, which warmed to -0.4°C at the end of the December, the other Niño indices were between -0.9°C and -1.4°C during the last week [Fig. 2]. Below-average subsurface temperatures weakened east of the Date Line [Fig. 3], reflecting the slow eastward movement of positive temperature anomalies, at depth, from the western into the central Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. However, below-average subsurface temperatures still dominated the eastern Pacific from ~200m to the surface. Low-level easterly wind anomalies and upper-level westerly wind anomalies prevailed over the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Enhanced convection persisted near Indonesia and the western Pacific, while suppressed convection remained over the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a mature La Niña. The IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index continues to forecast a transition to ENSO-neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus this month favors the continuation of La Niña through March-May 2022, with a transition to ENSO-neutral occurring in April-June 2022 (51% chance). ENSO-neutral is then expected to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer, though chances do not exceed 57% (for May-July 2022), which is consistent with the generally lower confidence forecasts made through the spring. In summary, La Niña is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring (67% chance during March-May 2022) and then transition to ENSO-neutral (51% chance during April-June; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period). La Niña is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thurs. Jan. 20th). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 10 February 2022.

[Lewis]

The longer La Niña goes on the more heat accumulates in the ocean and more heat will be released in the next El Niño, should be a fun ride in 2023. Expecting it to be a record breaking year on all fronts.

 

 

 

 

 

[Lewis]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

10 March 2022

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis:  La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (53% chance during June-August 2022), with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO-neutral thereafter. Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strengthened during February 2022 across the central and east-central tropical Pacific, with negative anomalies stretching from the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. In particular, the weekly Niño-3.4 index decreased from -0.6°C at the beginning of February to -1.1°C in the last week [Fig. 2], while the other Niño SST regions were between -0.6°C and -1.3°C in the last week. Subsurface temperatures anomalies (averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth) were near zero [Fig. 3], as the recent warming associated with the downwelling Kelvin wave has attenuated. Below-average temperatures have expanded near the surface and at depth near ~150°W [Fig. 4]. Tropical atmospheric anomalies strengthened during the past month, with the extension of enhanced low-level easterly winds across the equatorial Pacific and upper-level westerly wind anomalies remaining over the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Suppressed convection strengthened around the Date Line, while convection was enhanced near Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the continuation of La Niña. The IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index continues to forecast a transition to ENSO-neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring [Fig. 6]. This month, the forecaster consensus favors a slower decay of La Niña due to the recent renewal of ocean-atmosphere coupling, which contributed to cooler near-term forecasts from several state-of-the-art climate models. For the summer and beyond, there is large uncertainty in the state of ENSO; however forecasters lean toward negative Niño-3.4 index values even if the index does not reach La Niña thresholds. In summary, La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (53% chance during June-August 2022), with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO-neutral thereafter; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period). La Niña is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thurs. Mar. 17th). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 14 April 2022.

[Lewis]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

14 April 2022

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis:  La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (59% chance during June-August 2022), with a 50-55% chance through the fall. During March 2022, La Niña continued with below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. In the past week, all of the Niño index regions were between -0.7°C and -1.1°C [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperatures anomalies (averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth) decreased and were negative the entire month [Fig. 3] due to the expansion of below-average temperatures from the surface to 200 meters depth in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. For the monthly average, low-level easterly wind anomalies prevailed across the western and central Pacific, and upper-level westerly wind anomalies remained over the east-central Pacific. Suppressed convection remained significant around the Date Line and was enhanced over the Philippines and Southeast Asia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the continuation of La Niña. The most recent IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index forecasts a transition to ENSO-neutral during the Northern Hemisphere summer [Fig. 6]. This month, the forecaster consensus predicts Niño-3.4 index values to weaken into the summer but remain below the threshold of La Niña (Niño-3.4 values equal to or less than -0.5°C). The change in the consensus forecast to slightly favoring the continuation of La Nina is primarily based on recent model runs from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the persistence of atmosphere-ocean coupling, which remains fairly strong for this time of year. While La Niña is slightly favored through the fall, there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty, given the combined 45-50% chance for ENSO-neutral or El Niño from July-September onwards. In summary, La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (59% chance during June-August 2022), with a 50-55% chance through the fall; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12 May 2022.   To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

[Lewis]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

12 May 2022

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis:  Though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer (58% chance in August-October 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (61% chance). Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) persisted during April across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. Over the past month, the Niño index values decreased, with the latest weekly values ranging from -1.1°C to -1.5°C [Fig. 2], which are quite negative for this time of year. Subsurface temperatures anomalies (averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth) remained negative [Fig. 3], reflecting an extensive area of below-average temperatures from the surface to ~100m depth across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. For the monthly average, low-level easterly and upper-level westerly wind anomalies dominated the equatorial Pacific. Convection remained significantly suppressed around the Date Line and was enhanced over the Philippines [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the continuation of La Niña. The most recent IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index forecasts borderline La Niña conditions during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with increasing odds for La Niña into the fall [Fig. 6]. Similar to last month, the forecaster consensus predicts Niño-3.4 index values to weaken into the summer, but remaining below the threshold of La Niña (Niño-3.4 values equal to or less than -0.5°C). In the near-term, westerly wind anomalies are predicted for mid-late May which supports the weakening of below-average surface and subsurface oceanic temperatures in the coming months. However, much of the model guidance is also hinting at a re-strengthening of La Niña conditions again in the fall and upcoming winter. In summary, though La Niña is favored to continue, the odds for La Niña decrease into the late Northern Hemisphere summer (58% chance in August-October 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (61% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 June 2022.

[Lewis]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

9 June 2022

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis:  Though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (52% chance in July-September 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (58-59% chance). During May, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continued across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. However, negative SST anomalies weakened during the past month, as reflected by the Niño indices, which ranged from -0.6°C to -0.9°C during the past week [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperatures anomalies (averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth) also weakened with values returning to near zero [Fig. 3]. Below-average subsurface temperatures persisted near the surface to at least ~75m depth from the central to the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with above-average temperatures continuing at depth (~100 to 200m) in the western and central Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level easterly wind anomalies prevailed in the east-central equatorial Pacific, while upper-level westerly wind anomalies continued over most of the equatorial Pacific. Convection was suppressed over the western and central Pacific and was weakly enhanced over parts of Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system continues to reflect La Niña. The most recent IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index forecasts La Niña to persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23 [Fig. 6]. This is now in greater agreement with the forecast consensus this month, which also predicts La Niña to continue into the winter. However, it is clear that recent observed oceanic and atmospheric anomalies have weakened and this is anticipated to continue through the summer. Uncertainty remains over whether La Niña may transition to ENSO-neutral during the summer, with forecasters predicting a 52% chance of La Niña and a 46% chance of ENSO-neutral during July-September 2022. After this season, the forecast is for renewed cooling, with La Niña favored during the fall and early winter. In summary, though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (52% chance in July-September 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (58-59% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 14 July 2022.

[Lewis]

 

La Niña percent chance is increasing for winter and beginning of 2023.

 

 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

14 July 2022

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis:  La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (60% chance in July-September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (62-66% chance). During June, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) weakened across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean with SSTs returning to near-average in the east-central Pacific [Fig. 1], as reflected by the Niño indices, which ranged from -0.4°C to -1.2°C during the past week [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperatures anomalies averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth were weakly positive in June [Fig. 3]. Below-average subsurface temperatures persisted near the surface to ~75m depth in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with above-average temperatures at depth (~100 to 200m) in the western and central Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level easterly wind anomalies prevailed in the western and central equatorial Pacific, while upper-level westerly wind anomalies continued over most of the equatorial Pacific. Convection remained suppressed over the western and central Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system was consistent with La Niña conditions. The most recent IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index now forecasts La Niña to persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23 [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus also predicts La Niña to persist during the remainder of 2022, with odds for La Niña remaining at 60% or greater through early winter. Lowest odds occur during the next few months with a 60% chance of La Niña and a 39% chance of ENSO-neutral during July-September 2022. Subsequently, chances of La Niña increase slightly during the fall and early winter. In summary, La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (60% chance in July-September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (62-66% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 August 2022.

[Lewis]

We are entering a third year of La Nina (starting September), but a transitioning to Neutral around January-March timeline is in the forecast, and then the eventual scary El Niño later in 2023.

 

 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

11 August 2022

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis:  La Niña is expected to continue, with chances for La Niña gradually decreasing from 86% in the coming season to 60% during December-February 2022-23. During the past month, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) expanded across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The weekly Niño indices indicated renewed cooling, with the latest Niño-3.4 and Niño-4 indices reaching -1.0°C [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperature anomalies also decreased rapidly in the past month [Fig. 3], reflecting the reemergence of below-average subsurface temperatures across the east-central Pacific Ocean due to an upwelling Kelvin wave propagating eastward [Fig. 4]. Low-level easterly wind anomalies and upper-level westerly wind anomalies persisted across most of the equatorial Pacific. Convection and rainfall remained suppressed over the western and central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system remained consistent with an ongoing La Niña. The most recent IRI plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index forecasts La Niña to persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23 [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus, supplemented with the latest models from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), concurs that La Niña is the most likely outcome during the fall and winter. While a majority of NMME models suggest that La Niña will transition to ENSO-neutral in January-March 2023, forecasters are split on this outcome resulting in equal forecast probabilities for that season. In summary, La Niña is expected to continue, with chances for La Niña gradually decreasing from 86% in the coming season to 60% during December-February 2022-23 [Fig. 7]. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 September 2022.

[Lewis]

La Niña continues and into the third year. Possible transitioning to ENSO neutral around Feb - April.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

8 September 2022

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis:  La Niña is favored to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23, with a 91% chance in September-November, decreasing to a 54% chance in January-March 2023. During August, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) persisted across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The largest SST anomalies were evident in the Niño-3.4 and Niño-4 regions, with the latest weekly values reaching -0.8°C and -1.1°C, respectively [Fig. 2]. Negative subsurface temperature anomalies were mostly unchanged during the month [Fig. 3], reflecting the dominance of below-average temperatures across the eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level easterly wind anomalies and upper-level westerly wind anomalies continued across most of the equatorial Pacific. Convection and rainfall remained suppressed over the western and central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect La Niña. The most recent IRI plume forecast of the Niño-3.4 SST index indicates La Niña will persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23 [Fig. 6]. There is an interesting split in the dynamical versus statistical model forecasts, with the latter set suggesting La Niña will persist longer, through January-March 2023. At this time, the forecaster consensus sides with the statistical models, although there is still large uncertainty over how long La Niña will last and when it will transition to ENSO-neutral (56% chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral during February-April 2023). In summary, La Niña is favored to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23, with a 91% chance in September-November, decreasing to a 54% chance in January-March 2023 [Fig. 7]. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 13 October 2022.

[Lewis]

La Niña continues to be strong for winter.

 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

13 October 2022

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis:  There is a 75% chance of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) 2022-23, with a 54% chance for ENSO-neutral in February-April 2023. Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continued across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during September [Fig. 1]. Most of the Niño indices decreased during the past month, with the latest weekly index values spanning -0.8°C to -1.6°C [Fig. 2]. For the last couple of months, negative subsurface temperature anomalies remained mostly unchanged [Fig. 3], reflecting the persistence of below-average temperatures across the eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level easterly wind anomalies and upper-level westerly wind anomalies prevailed across most of the equatorial Pacific. Convection was suppressed over the western and central tropical Pacific and was enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect La Niña. The most recent IRI plume forecast of the Niño-3.4 SST index indicates La Niña will persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23, and then transition to ENSO-neutral in January-March 2023 [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus for this month favors a slightly later transition to ENSO-neutral, during February-April 2023, which is consistent with the latest North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). However, predicting the timing of transitions is challenging, and there continues to be uncertainty over how long La Niña may last. In summary, there is a 75% chance of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) 2022-23, with a 54% chance for ENSO-neutral in February-April 2023 [Fig. 7]. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 10 November 2022.

[Dages]

That's why we will have 31°C (88F) next week in France? That's very hot for October. Never seen this

[Lewis]

The cooling effect we get from La Niña may not be enough to offset the rising temperatures from Global Warming. Also the reduction of Global Dimming globally could be another factor at play. In 2020, we saw what the effects of the reduction of Global Dimming had on the world, as 2020 ranked hottest ever by 0.01C over the previous record from the year 2016.

[Lewis]

Jennifer Frances a climate researcher explains about how extreme El Niño is about to get.

 

 

 

[Lewis]

The transitioning to ENSO neutral looking strong for spring time. That also means we will be at a global temperature of 1.26C above industrial once we enter ENSO neutral.

 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

10 November 2022

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis:  There is a 76% chance of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) 2022-23, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored in February-April 2023 (57% chance). Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strengthened in the east-central Pacific Ocean during the past month [Fig. 1]. All of the latest weekly Niño index values were near -1.0°C, with the exception of Niño-1+2 which was at -1.8°C [Fig. 2]. Since late July 2022, negative subsurface temperature anomalies have been quite persistent [Fig. 3], reflecting the stationary pattern of below-average temperatures across the eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. For the monthly average, low-level easterly wind anomalies and upper-level westerly wind anomalies were evident across most of the equatorial Pacific. However, in the last week, the low-level trade winds weakened in association with sub-seasonal tropical variability. Convection remained suppressed over the western and central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect La Niña. The most recent IRI plume forecast of the Niño-3.4 SST index indicates La Niña will persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23, and then transition to ENSO-neutral in February-April 2023 [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus, which also considers the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), is in agreement with the timing of this transition. The recent weakening of the trade winds suggest below-average SSTs may be near their minimum, though considerable uncertainty remains over how gradually the anomalies will decay. In summary, there is a 76% chance of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) 2022-23, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored in February-April 2023 (57% chance; [Fig. 7]). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 December 2022.

[Lewis]

71% chance of ENSO neutral in Feb-April timeline now.

 

 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

8 December 2022

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis:  La Niña is expected to continue into the winter, with equal chances of La Niña and ENSO-neutral during January-March 2023. In February-April 2023, there is a 71% chance of ENSO-neutral. Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) persisted in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean during the past month [Fig. 1]. All of the latest weekly Niño index values were near -1.0°C, except for the Niño-1+2 index which was at -0.5°C [Fig. 2]. In November 2022, negative subsurface temperature anomalies weakened [Fig. 3], reflecting an eastward expansion of the above-average subsurface temperatures in the western and central Pacific and contraction of the below-average temperatures across the eastern Pacific [Fig. 4]. Low-level easterly wind anomalies and upper-level westerly wind anomalies were evident across most of the equatorial Pacific throughout the month. The convection pattern continued to show suppressed convection over the western and central tropical Pacific and enhanced convection over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect La Niña. The most recent IRI plume indicates that La Niña will persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23. For the dynamical model averages, ENSO-neutral is favored in January-March 2023, while the statistical model average shows the transition to ENSO-neutral occurs in February-April 2023 [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus, which also considers the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), is split on whether La Niña or ENSO-neutral will prevail during January-March 2023. Regardless, there is higher confidence that ENSO-neutral will emerge by the Northern Hemisphere spring. In summary, La Niña is expected to continue into the winter, with equal chances of La Niña and ENSO-neutral during January-March 2023. In February-April 2023, there is a 71% chance of ENSO-neutral [Fig. 7]. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12 January 2023

[Lewis]

The latest long term ENSO forecast was just released, and it now looks like almost 50% that El Niño will return by next late Summer or early Fall, 2023. Given the massive ocean heat content that could get released, 1.5°C in 2024 is within the realm of what's possible.

 

 

 

[Lewis]

 

82% chance for ENSO Neutral in Feb - April. By the end of summer or fall we may see the start of El Niño. 

 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

12 January 2023

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis:  A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is anticipated during the February-April 2023 season. By Northern Hemisphere spring (March-May 2023), the chance for ENSO-neutral is 82%. During December, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) weakened over the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. All of the latest weekly Niño index values were between -0.7°C and -0.8°C [Fig. 2]. The subsurface temperature anomalies also weakened substantially [Fig. 3], but below-average subsurface temperatures persisted near the surface and at depth in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. However, the atmospheric circulation anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean did not notably weaken. Low-level easterly wind and upper-level westerly wind anomalies remained across most of the equatorial Pacific. Suppressed convection persisted over the western and central tropical Pacific, while enhanced convection was observed around Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect La Niña. The most recent IRI plume predicts that La Niña will transition to ENSO-neutral during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23 [Fig. 6]. Interestingly, the dynamical models indicate a faster transition (January-March) than the statistical models (February-April). At this time, the forecaster consensus favors the statistical models, with a transition to ENSO-neutral in the February-April 2023 season. The sustained atmospheric circulation anomalies and the weakening downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave do not support an imminent transition. However, lower accuracy during times of transition, and when predictions go through the spring, means that uncertainty remains high. In summary, a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is anticipated during the February-April 2023 season. By Northern Hemisphere spring (March-May 2023), the chance for ENSO-neutral is 82% [Fig. 7]. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 February 2023.

[Lewis]

According to this article, A natural shift in Pacific Ocean winds could push global temperatures even higher in 2023, wreaking havoc on weather across the entire world.

 

https://www.dw.com/en/how-does-climate-change-affect-el-nino-and-la-nina-cycles/a-64534667

 

We could see global average of 1.5C during El Niño this year, next year over 1.5C, which is unprecedented. Scientists wont know for sure until May, the next ENSO forecast update will be in a few days, should be interesting to see what the US climate prediction center has to say.