Global Temperature Monthly Update

[Lewis]

Global Temperature Update for September 2022

 

Global Temperature in September was 5th warmest in the 143 year record since 1880. (NASA)

The warmest September’s are 2020 (0.99C), 2021, (0.92C), 2019 (0.92C), 2016 (0.90C), 2022, (0.88C)

 

 

 

Right now, RCP 8.5 seems to be the optimistic scenario, since most methane emission are not included nor do other tipping points

 

 

The situation with the methane levels lately is getting a lot of attention among scientists around the world. The recent boost of methane going into our atmosphere has been noticed. As of this month, we are now at 1925 ppb of methane in the atmosphere and 420 ppm of CO2. Combined greenhouse gases is about 510 ppm. That guarantees us 2.0C of global surface temperature at minimum.

 

The recent boost is most likely coming from feedback from the planet responding to Global Warming by the planet producing greenhouse emissions from the tropics that is rich in peat.

 

In the upcoming COP27 in November, there is a growing concern about lack of funds needed to tackle Global Warming by all countries, right now they have only $40 billion committed to the 300 billion needed for annual adaptation.

[Lewis]

There is a site that shows up to the second of human induced global warming since the second half of the mid century (1880) https://globalwarmingindex.org

 

Just to help understand, we currently are at 1.26C without La Niña, with La Niña we are at 1.15C-1.19C range.

 

Since this site factors only from 1880, we have been adding greenhouse gases since 1750 (the start of the industrial revolution), so from 1750 to 1880 we added 0.3C which is not factored in. 

 

So we are technically at 1.56C without La Niña or 1.45C-1.49C with La Niña.

 

But because the IPCC and Paris Accord agreement only count starting from 1880, they omit anything prior to that baseline.

Edited November 7, 2022 by Lewis

[Witness1970]

This topic started in 2019, and I just found out about it.

[Lewis]

 

Global Temperature Update for October 2022

 

Global Temperature in October was 5th warmest in the 143 year record since 1880. (NASA)

The warmest October’s are 2015 (1.09C), 2018, (1.02C), 2019 (1.01C), 2021 (0.99C), 2022 (0.96C) relative to the 1951 - 1980 Mean.

 

The average global temperature for the last twelve months leading into October 2022 is 1.2C using the 1880 baseline.

 

Europe saw its hottest October on record. Europe’s hottest summer (June/July/August) on record likely resulted in more than 20,000 excess deaths between France, Germany, Spain and the UK. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/europe-s-hottest-summer-led-to-20-000-excess-deaths-1.1850742

 

Going into the next year, 2023, should be warmer because of the present strong planetary energy imbalance, which is driven by the increase of greenhouse gases. Perhaps an El Nino will begin in the second half of the year, but the El Nino effect on global temperature lags by 3-4 months. So, the 2023 temperature should be higher than in 2022, rivaling the warmest years.

 

In 2024, it is likely to be off the chart as the warmest year on record. It is unlikely that the current La Nina will continue a fourth year. Even a little futz of an El Nino – like the tropical warming in 2018-19, which barely qualified as an El Nino – should be sufficient for record global temperature. A classical, strong El Nino in 2023-24 could push global temperature to about +1.5°C relative to the 1880-1920 mean.

 

 

[Friends just call me Ross]

Supposed to hit 51° f. here in Michigan's Upper Peninsula.  Unheard of for this late in November. 

Instead of more snow, we now have hardly any...and RAIN is in the forecast!  🤔

[Lewis]

 

Global Temperature Update for November 2022

 

Global Temperature in November was much colder than the previous years, it was tied 12th warmest in the 143 year record since 1880. (NASA)

The warmest November’s are 2020 (1.11C), 2015, (1.06C), 2019 (0.99C), 2021 (0.93C), 2016 (0.91C), 2017 (0.99C), 2013 (0.83C), 2018 (0.82C), 2010 (0.81C), 2009 (0.79C), 2012 (0.78C), 2005/2006/2022 tied (0.73C) relative to the 1951 - 1980 Mean.

 

Global Warming is about to get much worst very soon.

 

New disturbing new research has come out this past November on climate change disruption on La Niña / El Niño cycle. New research finds that Global Warming will disrupt La Niña / El Niño in a major way very soon. 40 years earlier than previously predicted. You can read about the research here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33930-5

 

James Hansen (top exNASA scientist) has also released new research about the earths energy imbalance on how models mixed heat too rapidly and therefore underestimating the Aerosol forcing  and what that means for the planet in the near future. You can read about it here: https://mailchi.mp/caa/earths-energy-imbalance-and-climate-response-time

 

 

[Lewis]

 

Global Temperature Update for December 2022 & Year.

 

Global Temperature in December was 8th warmest in the 143 year record since 1880. (NASA)

The warmest December’s are 2015 (1.16C), 2019, (1.09C), 2017 (0.93C), 2018 (0.92C), 2021 (0.87C), 2016 (0.86C), 2020 (0.81C), 2022 (0.80C)

 

Global Temperature for Year 2022 was 6th warmest at 1.16C (2.1F) in the 143 year record since 1880.

 

9 out of the last 10 warmest years on record happened in the last 9 years.

 

1. 2020 - 1.29C

2. 2016 - 1.28C

3. 2019 - 1.24C

4. 2017 - 1.19C

5. 2015 - 1.17C

6. 2022 - 1.16C

7. 2021 - 1.12C

8. 2018 - 1.12C

9. 2014 - 1.01C

10. 2010 - 0.99C

 

The current La Niña cool phase of the El Niño/La Niña cycle which dominates year to year global temperature fluctuation had maximum annual cooling effect in 2022. In 2022 it was ~0.04°C warmer than 2021, likely because of the unprecedented planetary energy imbalance. The already long La Niña is unlikely to continue, tropical neutral conditions are expected by Northern Hemisphere by spring, with continued warming as the year progresses. 2023 should be notably warmer than 2022 and global temperature in 2024 is likely to reach around 1.5°C relative to the 1880 baseline.

 

La Niña cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean was greatest in 2022, yet global temperature rose moderately in 2022 rather than declining. Its safe to say that global warming in regards to the tropical cooling is due to the current unprecedented Earth Energy Imbalance. The global temperature change is small, because in the past few years short term tropical cooling has been opposing long term human made warming. That situation is poised to change rapidly during the next two years. There are two basic factors that will drive accelerated warming.

First, there is a large, persistent, planetary energy imbalance. EEI fluctuates from year to year because it is sensitive to cloud cover, which is sensitive to ocean dynamical variability. And Second, for the past decade Earth has been out of energy balance by more than 1 W/m², an increased imbalance traced to faster net growth rate of the human made climate forcing. During 1970-2010, greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing increased ~0.45 W/m² per decade, but this warming was partly offset by cooling from human made aerosols, resulting in a net forcing increase of ~0.3 W/m² per decade. Since ~2010 aerosol climate forcing has been declining because of reduced air pollution in China and regulations on the sulfur content of fuels used by ships. Less aerosol cooling increases net forcing growth to 0.5-0.6 W/m², which should increase the decadal warming rate at least 50%.

 

 

 

 

[Michał]

I just Watched a video of Carl Sagan from 1985 what consequences greenhouse effect can have on our planet. It was almost 40 years ago and these predictions came true. He said at the end that international effort (not only by US, USSR and China)is needed to curb man-made GH effect. Well, we know how humanity has fared so far and why. Thank you brother Carl @Lewis for your regular updates. 
 

Here’s the link:

 

 

[Lewis]

 

Global Temperature Update for March 2023.

 

Global Temperature in March 2023 was 2nd warmest in the 144 year record since 1880. (NASA)

2016 (1.36C), 2023 (1.21C)

 

Here are January and Feb updates

 

Global Temperature in January 2023 was 7th warmest

Global Temperature in February 2023 was 4th warmest

 

Latest Australian Bureau of Meteorology models are showing we are headed towards a Super El Niño this coming September/October and beyond. See graph below. Anything over +2.0 is generally means a Super.

 

 

 

The intensity of an El Niño event is measured by the anomaly in sea surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region of the Pacific Ocean, which is an area between 120°W and 170°W longitude and 5°N and 5°S latitude.

 

Now question is will we see wet bulb temperature this summer and/or the next.

[Lewis]

 

Global Temperature Update for April 2023.

 

Global Temperature in April 2023 was 4th warmest in the 144 year record since 1880. (NASA)

2020 (1.13C), 2016 (1.10C), 2019 (1.01C), 2023 (1.00C)

 

The international climate models suggest further warming in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is likely,  6 out of 7 models indicate El Niño thresholds for sea surface temperature will be met or exceeded. Models suggest El Niño will be fully under way by June and Super El Niño by August @ 1.5C temp and by Oct @2.0C temp, Australian BoM the upper outlier showing 2.8C by Oct. We are in for a rough one.

 

 

[Lewis]

 

Global Temperature Update for May 2023.

 

Global Temperature in May 2023 was 3rd warmest in the 144 year record since 1880. (NASA)

2020 (1.02C), 2016 (0.95C), 2023 (0.94C)

 

Now that El Niño has arrived we can expect a spike in the rise of global temperatures for this year and the next. 

 

Since the formation of El Niño in the beginning of June, in the first 11 days of June, global average temperatures peaked over 1.5C as average, on June 9th alone it peaked 1.69C globally, we have never seen temperatures like this before in a global setting, since then temperatures has dipped a bit as we are currently back under +0.8 in the Nino 3.4 index. June 2023 is poised to become a record month beating 2020’s record. (See graph below)

 

 

As of right now with things are going we could be seeing 2023 becoming the warmest year on record and 2024 to be even warmer.

 

There has been a staggering increase in Earth Energy Imbalance between 2005 and 2015 of about 0.71W/m2, that imbalance has now increased to over 1 W/m2 today. Earth Energy Imbalance provides the direct driving force for global warming and all of the consequences that we see today. 

 

There is a projection that was made by Hansen and team of 50%-100% of global warming increase a few decades following 2010, if that projection is right, then a rise of global temperature is set to rise in the yellow region (see graph below)

 

 

 

 

[Lewis]

Looking like a record breaking month for global surface temperature for June based on ERA5 dataset, if this chart is correct, we blew past all previous records by a long shot @ 1.46C making June 2023 the hottest ever. Not final until NASA gives its final update around mid month.

 

If we are seeing this type of temperature, we are poised to be the hottest year ever, and 2024 being even hotter.

 

Edited July 5, 2023 by Friends just call me Ross

[Lewis]

A lot more heat in the works for our planet, our Earth Energy Imbalance has shot past 1.8 W/m2 according to NASA Satellites, rough times ahead.

 

Graph by Leon Simons

Data: NASA

 

Edited July 5, 2023 by Friends just call me Ross

[Lewis]

Hottest day for the globe ever recorded yesterday at 17.1C.

 

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/

 

previous record, July 24, 2022 and Aug 13, 2016 tied at 16.92C

 

[Lewis]

23 hours ago, Lewis said:

Hottest day for the globe ever recorded yesterday at 17.1C.

 

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/

 

previous record, July 24, 2022 and Aug 13, 2016 tied at 16.92C

 

 

Broke the record again July 4th, at 17.18C.

 

We will most likely be seeing broken records for the next 6 - 8 weeks.

 

[Lewis]

Up and Up we go.

 

June 3 - 17.01C

June 4 - 17.184C

June 5 - 17.181C

June 6 - 17.23C - new record for global

[Lewis]

 

Global Temperature Update for June 2023

 

Global Temperature in June 2023 was hottest June on record since adequate global data began in 1880.

June global surface temperature record was at 1.07C (1951-1980 mean) or 1.36C (1880-1920 mean).

 

Currently, we are tied for hottest year on record at 1.29C (1880-1920 mean), 2023 will easily become the hottest year on record.

 

We are undoubtedly in uncharted territory and we are about to experience much worst very soon, so lets look at what is happening around the globe.

 

El Niño - daily Index on the rise again (first graph), also comparison to the other two super El Niño years (second graph)

 

 

 

 

Oceans - Both the World SST and the North Atlantic SST are rising at an extreme pace, at this rate we will reach record breaking temperatures in 2 weeks where we should be for September 1st. NOAA has a high percentage of probability of coral bleaching to happen between July and October.

 

 

 Antarctica - To date Antarctica is behind in sea ice gains of about 2.6 million km2 of where it should be. As of lately, there has been sign of accelerating sea ice gains in the past week, we are at about 80% done into winter now, record low maximum should still be easily reached. Antarctica will most likely take even a bigger beating when melt season arrives.

 

 

 

Arctic Circle - While Antarctica is having a mini rebound, Arctic and Greenland are doing the opposite. Arctic is having 100kms daily losses while Greenland surface daily melt has reached over 60% for 8 days in an row and over 50% for 17 days. Pretty sure these are record numbers.

 

 

Heatwaves- With temperatures rising all over the world, we are seeing daytime temperatures staying so high over a sustained period of time as it is likely night time temperatures will also rise causing dangerous levels for humans to endure in.

 

Our planet isn’t doing to well

Edited July 16, 2023 by Lewis

[Lewis]

This month (July) is poised to be the hottest month ever recorded in human history.

 

Going forward we should expect every month for the next 12 months or so to be between 1.5C and 2.0C as El Niño is picking up now.

Edited July 29, 2023 by Friends just call me Ross
At request of poster.

[Lewis]

On 7/4/2023 at 7:19 AM, Lewis said:

A lot more heat in the works for our planet, our Earth Energy Imbalance has shot past 1.8 W/m2 according to NASA Satellites, rough times ahead.

 

Graph by Leon Simons

Data: NASA

 

 

The earths energy imbalance is now at a net flux of 1.97 W/M2

 

This imbalance is the primary cause of global warming and extreme events.

[Lewis]

 

Global Temperature Update for July 2023

 

Warmest for both Land and Ocean.

 

Global Temperature in July 2023 was hottest month of any month on record since adequate global data began in 1880.

It was 1.18C (1951-1980 mean) or 1.42C (1880-1920 mean).

 

For the year we are at 1.03C (1951-1980 mean) or 1.32C (1880-1920 mean), that translates to hottest year on record thus far.

 

July’s air temperature global average was at a record of 17.23C making it the warmest month on record.

 

Oceans are currently at its highest temperatures and continue to climb. Global is currently at 21.06C highest on record ever. North Atlantic 25.09C highest on record ever.

 

El Niño continues to strengthen.

 

The leap in the rise of temperatures in the last two months and future isn’t a normal fluctuation, it is the result of having too much of imbalance in the earths energy. The greater the imbalance the greater the extreme we will see.

 

 

 

[SteveAus]

This is concerning i.e. the rise in altitude of the 0°C level.  To quote: 

'Switzerland's MeteoSuisse reported another measure of record summer heat Monday when its weather balloon climbed to a record-high 17,400 feet before reaching what it calls the zero-degree line.

 

The zero-degree line, which is the altitude at which the temperature falls below freezing, is considered a key meteorological marker, particularly in mountainous regions, has been climbing and set a record in 2022.

 

"The Payerne, [Switzerland] radiosounding this night from August 20 to 21, 2023 measured the 0°C isothermal 5,298 meters, which is a record since the start of measurements in 1954," MeteoSuisse said in a translated social media post.

 

The weather service said the zero-degree line "affects vegetation, the snow line and the water cycle so has a considerable impact on the habitats of humans, animals and plants alike."

 

The zero-degree line averaged 8,432 feet from 1991 to 2020, with a high of about 13,123 feet in the summer.'

 

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2023/08/21/Switzerland-zero-degree-line-MeteoSuisse/6421692629616/

 

Edited August 23, 2023 by SteveAus

[Lewis]

 

 

Global Temperature Update for August 2023

 

Global Temperature in August 2023 was hottest August on record since adequate global data began in 1880.

Global surface temperature was recorded at 1.24C (1951-1980 mean) or 1.49C (1880-1920 mean).

We are at 1.34C for the year since 1880, hottest year on record to date.

 

Global temperatures in the current El Nino exceeds temperatures from the prior Super El Nino of 2015/16 by more than the expected warming of 0.14C. The cause of the accelerated warming is due to an increase of Earths Energy Imbalance which has been brought on by a decline in the cooling effect of human made aerosols and increase in greenhouse gases.

 

If you look at the first graph below made by James Hansen you can see how in the two El Niño event in the past exceeded the previous El Niño , the current El Niño 2023/24 will trend the same exceeding the previous El Niños leading into the second year (El Nino Peak Years Graph).

We can expect to exceed 1.5C as soon as this year and especially next year.

The damage it will do to Antarctica and Arctic could be severe next year. 

 

 

 

Currently path in red

 

 

 

[Lewis]

On 8/23/2023 at 3:22 PM, SteveAus said:

This is concerning i.e. the rise in altitude of the 0°C level.  To quote: 

'Switzerland's MeteoSuisse reported another measure of record summer heat Monday when its weather balloon climbed to a record-high 17,400 feet before reaching what it calls the zero-degree line.

 

The zero-degree line, which is the altitude at which the temperature falls below freezing, is considered a key meteorological marker, particularly in mountainous regions, has been climbing and set a record in 2022.

 

"The Payerne, [Switzerland] radiosounding this night from August 20 to 21, 2023 measured the 0°C isothermal 5,298 meters, which is a record since the start of measurements in 1954," MeteoSuisse said in a translated social media post.

 

The weather service said the zero-degree line "affects vegetation, the snow line and the water cycle so has a considerable impact on the habitats of humans, animals and plants alike."

 

The zero-degree line averaged 8,432 feet from 1991 to 2020, with a high of about 13,123 feet in the summer.'

 

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2023/08/21/Switzerland-zero-degree-line-MeteoSuisse/6421692629616/

 

 

The extreme weather event you posted has had a huge effect on Switzerlands Glaciers, in the last 2 years there was a “dramatic acceleration” in decline in glacier ice, a 10% loss. It’s dramatic because the amount of loss is equivalent as the loss from 1960-1990 the report says. 

 

https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/09/28/dramatic-acceleration-switzerland-has-lost-10-of-its-glaciers-in-the-last-two-years

[Lewis]

 

Global Temperature Update for September 2023

 

Global Temperature in September 2023 smashed the prior global record of September 2020 of 1.23C (1880-1920 mean)

Global surface temperature was recorded at 1.47C (1951-1980 mean) or 1.72C (1880-1920 mean). 

We are at 1.38C for the year since 1880, hottest year on record to date.

 

The September global temperature anomaly leaped to more than +1.7°C relative to the 1880-1920 mean. The average anomaly of the past 4 months is +0.44°C relative to the same record months in 2015, the origin year of the 2015-16 El Nino. If this relative anomaly is maintained through this El Nino (through Northern Hemisphere 2024 spring) the peak 12-month mean global warming will reach +1.6-1.7°C relative to 1880-1920. Decline of global temperature following an El Nino peak is 0.2-0.3°C. Earth’s enormous energy imbalance assures that global temperature will be rising still higher for the foreseeable future.

 

[Lewis]

Preliminary reports showing October to be hottest on record for the planet at around 1.7C, thats an increase of 0.4C from the previous record back in 2015.