Arctic Sea Ice

[Lewis]

Latest news on the Arctic has come out that we should expect a Blue Ocean Event within 10 years as early as this year (highly doubt it).. Scientists are now discussing this issue and an article has come out to alert the world.

 

https://phys.org/news/2024-03-arctic-ice-free-decade-scientists.html

 

A blue Ocean Event is considered in having less than 1 million square km of ice, at that point ice would be in chunks and scattered.

[Lewis]

Predictions of sea ice level in the Arctic for 2024 to be about 5 million sq kilometer in September's minimum according to the naval school who keep track of sea ice due to US security interest and make yearly predictions. No Blue Ocean Event this year.

 

https://nps.edu/web/rasm/predictions

[daydream]

9 hours ago, Lewis said:

https://nps.edu/web/rasm/predictions

The chart shows sea ice concentration in the Artic area is dropping sharply. Is this trend alarming and any possibility the percentage can increase in the next few months.

[Lewis]

2 hours ago, daydream said:

The chart shows sea ice concentration in the Artic area is dropping sharply. Is this trend alarming and any possibility the percentage can increase in the next few months.

Tab over to extent, thats what everyone looks at. Extent is the total ice in the area (or concentration)

 

If you compare to the amount of ice from the 1850s, its half of what it was when record keeping began.

 

It’s possible for the percentage to increase, it is just a prediction not a forecast. I saw a poll among scientists and they project Blue Ocean Event to happen between 2025 and 2035 and their projection for ice minimum this year was around 4.5m - 5m sq km.

[Lewis]

Looks like some major sunshine coming to the Arctic Circle that hasn't been seen in a while. All that high pressure (anything over 1013hps is considered high) and what it will do to the ice and for how long.      

 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=2&model=gfs&var=1&run=0&time=108&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref

 

[Lewis]

Arctic sea ice suffered big losses in the last 6 days, especially in the last 3 days. Heatwave is picking up. 619,000 square kilometers loss in this short time. 

 

June 3 - 81k

June 4 - 96k

June 5 - 83k

June 6 - 140k

June 7 -104k

June 8 - 115k

[Lewis]

On 5/10/2024 at 8:12 AM, Lewis said:

It’s possible for the percentage to increase, it is just a prediction not a forecast. I saw a poll among scientists and they project Blue Ocean Event to happen between 2025 and 2035 and their projection for ice minimum this year was around 4.5m - 5m sq km.

 

 

Updated prediction for sea ice minimum they now think will be around 2.5M km2 - 4.0M km2. They now feel that the Arctic Sea Ice and Greenland will hit record territory melt this year.

 

We are currently at 10.5M km2, Around mid September is when the melt season ends.

 

Here are the last 20 years of lowest sea ice extent in the Arctic.

Year   Minimum 

2012.   3.18M km2

2020.  3.55M

2019.   3.96M

2016.   4.02M

2007.   4.07M

2023.   4.14M

2015.   4.16M

2011.   4.27M

2018.   4.26M

2017.   4.27M

2008.   4.50M

2022.   4.52M

2021.   4.61M

2010.   4.62M

2013.   4.81M

2014.   4.82M

2009.   5.05M

2005.   5.18M

2002.   5.51M

2006.   5.63M

 

[Lewis]

Sea Ice melt in the Arctic is accelerating, lots of hot air coming in doing a lot of damage

Arctic Sea Ice Extent went from 12th lowest to now 7th lowest in 5 days

Arctic Sea Ice Area is now at 3rd lowest.

 

[Lewis]

On 5/9/2024 at 8:01 PM, Lewis said:

Predictions of sea ice level in the Arctic for 2024 to be about 5 million sq kilometer in September's minimum according to the naval school who keep track of sea ice due to US security interest and make yearly predictions. No Blue Ocean Event this year.

 

https://nps.edu/web/rasm/predictions

 

Arctic Sea Ice Extent is now about 4.8 million sq kilometers and continuing to melt.

 

Arctic Sea Ice Area is about 2.8 million sq kilometers and will most likely see a record by September if melt hold steady. Record is 2.25 km2.

 

Lots of heat going into the Arctic right now, the cooling from the Arctic is not as strong as it should be, its getting weaker.