Hurricanes

[Lewis]

This disturbance is now a Depression (Invest 92) and the computer models show its trajectory to Florida. https://www.trackthetropics.com/INVEST92/

 

 

The climate analyzer that i usually use to check on Ocean temps is down due to the previous Hurricane (Helene) that disabled the monitoring center in North Carolina. https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=natlan

 

NOAA’s site showing the Gulf of Mexico is very warm about 28C-32C  https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/regsatprod/gom/sst_map.php

 

 

[Dolce vita]

5 minutes ago, Lewis said:

This disturbance is now a Depression (Invest 92) and the computer models show its trajectory to Florida. https://www.trackthetropics.com/INVEST92/

 

 

The climate analyzer that i usually use to check on Ocean temps is down due to the previous Hurricane (Helene) that disabled the monitoring center in North Carolina. https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=natlan

 

NOAA’s site showing the Gulf of Mexico is very warm about 28C-32C  https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/regsatprod/gom/sst_map.php

 

 

Is it danegerous, Brother Carl ?

[Lewis]

This is the key message for what to expect from this Storm https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7

 

 

 

[Lewis]

It is now tropical storm Milton

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/051725.shtml?

[BLEmom]

Ugh!!!!

Helene was enough for this year!

[Witness1970]

Here comes Milton!  Eastern North Carolina should get more rain from that!  How much rain depends on how close Milton remains to the coast.

[Qapla]

Our MWM for this Wed has already been cancelled for in-person ... we will be getting the streaming link

 

[Lewis]

Milton is now a Hurricane and will most likely become a major Hurricane.

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/

[Lewis]

Hurricane Milton is very dangerous, the surges from this Hurricane is very extreme.

 

This meteorologist explains about the surges quite well.

 

 

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/032137.shtml?peakSurge#contents

 

[Thomas Walker]

https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cly5z4w388qo

 

When the newscasters start tearing up, let alone BBC; I worry.

 

Edited October 8, 2024 by Thomas Walker

[Lewis]

Climate Reanalyzer is showing Milton will arrive in Florida very early Thursday morning. Use the slider to see the Hurricane movement.

 

 

https://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/?mdl_id=nam&dm_id=conus-lc&wm_id=prcp-mslp-gph500

[cme]

May Jehovah be with our friends in Florida and, all over the world.  We are at end of this system.

[Dolce vita]

3 hours ago, Lewis said:

Climate Reanalyzer montre que Milton arrivera en Floride très tôt jeudi matin. Utilisez le curseur pour voir le mouvement de l'ouragan.

 

 

https://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/?mdl_id=nam&dm_id=conus-lc&wm_id=prcp-mslp-gph500

Thank you, Brother Carl. Do we have reason to fear for Florida and other neighboring states—and especially for our local brothers and sisters—?

The prayers have already gone where they need to go. One of the signs that we are very close to Jehovah’s intervention is climate change and all that it brings. This was brought up just yesterday in the monthly broadcast. Let's Take courage!

[Lewis]

Crazy how fast this Hurricane grew from cat 1 to cat 5, it became a record as the fastest intensity in the Gulf of Mexico.

 

[Lewis]

US Government cuts has now affected the Satellite Data and will be shut down permanently starting June 30th. The shutdown affects Hurricane Forecasts along with Arctic & Antarctica Sea Ice tables/data.

 

For Hurricanes, using Satellites microwaves was crucial because not only did it track the storms but it was able to detect the rapid intensification of these storms. This is huge loss due to its real time weather forecasts and can detect the intensification a lot faster than what the Hurricane Hunter Flights can since they only fly every 6-8 hours, and a lot can happen in that time. article.

[Dolce vita]

2 hours ago, Lewis said:

US Government cuts has now affected the Satellite Data and will be shut down permanently starting June 30th. The shutdown affects Hurricane Forecasts along with Arctic & Antarctica Sea Ice tables/data.

 

For Hurricanes, using Satellites microwaves was crucial because not only did it track the storms but it was able to detect the rapid intensification of these storms. This is huge loss due to its real time weather forecasts and can detect the intensification a lot faster than what the Hurricane Hunter Flights can since they only fly every 6-8 hours, and a lot can happen in that time. article.

Is the effect on forecasts immediate, Brother Carl ? Does it affect international forecasts?

[Lewis]

On 6/28/2025 at 11:00 PM, Dolce vita said:

Is the effect on forecasts immediate, Brother Carl ? Does it affect international forecasts?

Yeah it’s immediate, foreign countries do have their own Satellites with similar capabilities, but the DMSP Satellites were heavily relied on for US when providing models and forecasts as these Satellites use Microwave technologies and can see through clouds and see inside Storms. US will still receive forecasts through the old fashion way, not sure on international forecasts as the Hurricane Hunter Flights never go outside of the Atlantic Ocean.

 

The same with viewing data for the Arctic, could not access data today, can only access through the Japanese Satellites for Sea Ice Extent only.

This also comes at time when the Arctic is in a major heatwave right now and the Ice is melting in large numbers.

 

Going to be an interesting year.

Edited 12 hours ago by Lewis
Typo

[Qapla]

3 minutes ago, Lewis said:

the Hurricane Hunter Flights never go outside of the Pacific Ocean.

 

Being in Florida, I can attest to the fact that they also fly in the Gulf and the Atlantic ...

[Lewis]

6 minutes ago, Qapla said:

 

Being in Florida, I can attest to the fact that they also fly in the Gulf and the Atlantic ...

That was a typo, I meant Atlantic. Thanks for catching that.

[Watching and Waiting]

4 hours ago, Lewis said:

The same with viewing data for the Arctic, could not access data today, can only access through the Japanese Satellites for Sea Ice Extent only.

This also comes at time when the Arctic is in a major heatwave right now and the Ice is melting in large numbers.

 

This is a "revolting development," though sad to say, not surprising.  After reading the link article, it reminded me of the "ostrich with its head in the sand" adage.  If you stop looking and assessing, you can pretend it doesn't exist!!  

 

I have really valued your postings Carl in the various threads about the polar ice caps, etc.  Is this  also affecting the ENSO reports issued in cooperation with NOAA? 

[jdcarlson]

7 hours ago, Lewis said:

Going to be an interesting year.

 

My Dear Brother:

 

For someone who lives in Canada (if I read the EXIF data correctly) you seem very concerned with tropical storms.

 

This appears to be a matter of intelectual curiosity.

 

Living in the Florida Panhandle (Escambia County, extreme western edge, next to Alabama) I have had a much more intense experience with Hurricanes.

 

I moved to Pensacola in 1963. 60 days from now will be 62 years I have lived here.

 

I have been through so many hurricanes that I do not remmber all of the names or years. The big problem with the Gulf of Mexico (I refuse to use King Trump's name) is that once a storm gets in the Gulf, some will "take it on the chin." There is no way to get out of the Gulf except turn around and go south by southeast. I do not remember any tropical storm doing that.

 

The one storm that remains in my mind is Hurricane Ivan (2004). The eye of Ivan cam ashore up through Perdidio Bay (the body of water that separates West Florida from Alabama). The eye was to the west of Pensacola. In a tropical storm in the Gulf (due in large part to counter-clockwiste wind storm patterns) the side with the storm with the greatest strength (thus destruction) is the north east quadrant of the storm. With the eye of the storm to the west, we were in the north-east quadrant when the strom hit.

 

After the storm the Elders were told to visit everyone in their congregation and assess the damage to their homes, etc. When the numbers were tallied, there were 800 homes of witnesses damaged in the two western counties of the Panhandle, and 300 that needed to be completely re-roofed.

 

The Branch appointed a Relief Committee and sent a considerable money to buy supplies. The Kitchen for the Regional Building Committee set up in the parking lot of our Kingdom Hall. Every Saturday and Sunday they would serve breakfast at 7:00. By 8:00 everyone was assigned to groups of 8 to 10 and given an assignment of a home to go to. 

 

The work started about October 1, 2004. By the end of the year, all houses needing re-roofing had been finished, and repairs on other houses had been completed. 

 

What was outstanding was the response of brothers and sisters, literally from all over. There was a large tree that had been blown down and a limb was sticking through the roof of my mother's house. The first job was to get the tree out of the way. The crew assigned to that included brothers from as far away as Wisconsin, and a missionary couple assigned to Kenya (who happened to be in the U.S. for extra training). Who would expect someone from Africa to show up in Florida to help get a tree out of an old lady's roof???

 

On Thanksgiving weekend there was a group (two or three cars full) that came from Boston. They left Wednesday (at the end of their work day) and drove all night to be at the Kingdom Hall for breakfast at 7:00 AM. They worked four days straight. They left at 5:00 Sunday afternoon to drive back to Boston to be at work Monday morning. There were several sisters in the group. Whenever anyone would question whether they should be nailing shingles, they would show them their pneumatic nail gun with their name engraved. These sisters were professional roofers!

 

I know there have been hundreds of similar situations in the past 20 years where Jehovah's people have gone to the aid of their fellow believers who have been through disasters. Probably there are similar stories in each of these situations. 

 

But, to me the experience we had when Ivan struck in 2004 has left an indellible impression of the love Jehovah's people show towards each other.

 

Thanks,

 

Jim