Global Temperature Monthly Update

[Vasilis]

On 9/17/2019 at 5:42 AM, Lewis said:

Global Temperature in August was the second warmest in the 140 year record since 1880

The warmest August’s were 2016 (+0.98C), 2019 (+0.90C)

Why 2016 was so hot?

[Lewis]

2 hours ago, Vasilis said:

Why 2016 was so hot?

2015/2016 experienced a super El Niño and broke all kinds of records as it did in 2019 but with a weak El Niño, the weather is usually warmer during the El Niño period.

 

During an El Niño period, the warm water in the western Pacific Ocean flows eastward towards South America and heats surface waters off the coast of northwestern South America. These warm water evaporate easily and fuel Hurricanes and other unusual weather events.

[Newtonian]

Locally (near New Orleans, La) we have been breaking records for a number of days in a row - including the hottest temperature ever recorded in October.

 

September was also the hottest and driest on record in our area.

 

And on planet earth the hottest:

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/10/04/global-warming-september-2019-hottest-record/3865898002/

 

Excerpt:

 

"This year's warmth is occurring without the heat from a strong El Niño event in the tropical Pacific Ocean, according to the Capital Weather Gang. El Niño is a natural climate pattern that often boosts global temperatures by bringing more ocean heat to the surface and adding it to the atmosphere.

 

A powerful El Niño occurred in 2015 and 2016, contributing to the record heat at that time, the Capital Weather Gang said."

[Vasilis]

What about September? What's the new data?

[Lewis]

Global Temperature Update for September 2019

 

Global Temperature in September was the second warmest in the 140 year record since 1880

The warmest September’s were 2016 (+1.16C), 2019 (+1.15C)

The last 8 September’s has been the hottest on record.

 

September’s mean temperature were extremely high from eastern Japan to Mongolia, from southwestern Tajikistan to Saudi Arabia, from the western part of Western Africa to the western part of Middle Africa, from Mauritius to southern Kenya, from the eastern USA to southern Mexico and in around central Brazil. More than 50 cities across the country in the U.S experienced their hottest Septembers in more than a century of record keeping.

 

Four billion dollar weather related disasters hit the earth in September according to the September 2019 Catastrophe Report. Hurricane Dorian, Tropical Storm Imelda, Typhoon Faxai and flooding in Spain. The 2019 tally of billion dollar weather disasters was 23 as of the end of September. Ten of these disasters were in the U.S, making it the fifth year in a row for ten or more billion dollar weather disasters. Over 4000 deaths from these disasters alone.

 

North Pole was also warm in September, the Arctic sea ice extent during this month was the 3rd lowest in the 41 year satellite record, behind 2012 and 2007. In October currently, the sea ice extent has reached its record low, beating 2007 by about 490k, its expected to make records once the month is done.

 

 

You can find additional information here http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/Emails/September2019.pdf

 

Edited October 20, 2019 by Lewis

[Lewis]

Global Temperature Update for October 2019

 

Global Temperature in October was the second warmest in the 140 year record since 1880 (When measurements of adequate accuracy and spatial coverage began)

The warmest October’s were 2015 (+1.09C), 2019 (+1.04C)

 

JMA & Columbia places October 2019 at 2nd warmest October on record, while Copernicus places October 2019 as the warmest just over October 2015 by 0.01C.

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/oct_wld.html

http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/Emails/October2019.pdf

https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-october-2019

 

2019 is currently and on track to be the second warmest year on record, trailing behind 2016 which was warmed by a super El Niño, 2019 has been affected by a very weak El Niño and by being near the solar cycle minimum. 

 

The warm air simultaneously sent north caused parts of the Arctic to be more than +10 Degrees Celsius warmer than Normal. October 2019 hit the lowest sea ice extent, see below on chart.

 

[Bek]

Here is a short video of Arctic ice extent since the mid 1980s to our days: 

 

 

Edited November 16, 2019 by Bek

[JennyM]

On 7/17/2019 at 2:48 AM, trottigy said:

Thanks for keeping us updated. We can see the full on collision course coming soon - environmental and financial issues are headed for something huge!

 

soon .....

some experts believe that there will be a global recession in 2020... 

 

IMF says that the world is experiencing a synchronized economic slowdown now. 

[BenJepthah]

On 11/17/2019 at 8:47 AM, JennyM said:

some experts believe that there will be a global recession in 2020... 

 

IMF says that the world is experiencing a synchronized economic slowdown now. 

It’s off topic but “ synchronized “ by wihom? To do that would take a multinational effort. 

[JennyM]

52 minutes ago, BenJepthah said:

It’s off topic but “ synchronized “ by wihom? To do that would take a multinational effort. 

oooppps maybe i posted it wrong here..... i don't  know what synchonized  means...  Maybe it means, the global economy is going  down simultaneously.  

[BenJepthah]

On 12/9/2019 at 8:24 PM, JennyM said:

oooppps maybe i posted it wrong here..... i don't  know what synchonized  means...  Maybe it means, the global economy is going  down simultaneously.  

No. You quoted correctly. I saw the original article or comment someplace.  The IMF chief states it. Synchronized implies planning and direction.

[JennyM]

8 hours ago, BenJepthah said:

No. You quoted correctly. I saw the original article or comment someplace.  The IMF chief states it. Synchronized implies planning and direction.

 I see.. Thank you. 

[trottigy]

We need a 2020 thread, eh?

Edit: never mind - fixed.

 

 

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/02/13/weather/warmest-january-noaa-climate-trnd/index.html?__twitter_impression=true

 

Of the 1,681 months of the climate record, only March 2016, February 2016 and December 2015 each had a greater temperature departure from avg than #January 2020: @NOAANCEIclimate https://go.usa.gov/xdNBR  #StateOfClimate

 

524

8:13 AM - Feb 13, 2020

 

Edited February 14, 2020 by trottigy

[Lewis]

I still update but in greater format, over in the Global Warming Club. Didn’t want to flood the general forums with this.

[Lewis]

Preliminary reports showing February 2020 to be second warmest February on record.

[Newtonian]

From:

https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

 

Excerpt:

 

""The oceans have absorbed much of this increased heat, with the top 700 meters (about 2,300 feet) of ocean showing warming of more than 0.4 degrees Fahrenheit since 1969.[6]"

 

"6. Levitus, S.; Antonov, J.; Boyer, T.; Baranova, O.; Garcia, H.; Locarnini, R.; Mishonov, A.; Reagan, J.; Seidov, D.; Yarosh, E.; Zweng, M. (2017). NCEI ocean heat content, temperature anomalies, salinity anomalies, thermosteric sea level anomalies, halosteric sea level anomalies, and total steric sea level anomalies from 1955 to present calculated from in situ oceanographic subsurface profile data (NCEI Accession 0164586). Version 4.4. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. Dataset. doi:10.7289/V53F4MVP"

[Lewis]

Global Temperature update for February 2020.

 

February 2020, on global average, was the second warmest February since the reliable measurements began in 1880, at 1.26C relative to the 1951-1980 base period or 1.54C relative to the 1880 - 1920 base period. The Northern Hemisphere winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) was also the second warmest at 1.18C relative to the 1951-1980 base period or 1.47C relative to the 1880-1920 base period.

 

Warmest February was 2016 (+1.34C) relative to the 1951-1980 base period.

 

Most of Eurasia was unusually warm, with parts of Siberia being 10C or more warmer than the 1951-1980 mean in February. However, Alaska and the Arctic region north of Canada were unusually cold.

 

The Southern Ocean has cooled over the past half century, this cooling is a result of growing melt of Antarctic Ice shelves (freshwater reduces the density of Ocean surface water), which has caused the Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation (SMOC) to slow down. It is predicted in a paper (https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/acp-16-3761-2016.pdf) that SMOC will shut down entirely by mid-century, if greenhouse gases continues to increase rapidly. SMOC shutdown closes the escape valve for deep Southern Ocean heat; resulting deep Ocean warming is largest at the foot of the ice shelves. The ice shelf foot provides most of the restraining force that ice shelves exert on landward ice, so there is danger of a strong feedback and rapid sea level rise, if global warming continues to increase.

[BenJepthah]

Since air pollution over major cities including the worst offenders is obviously reduced due to managing the COVID crisis . Do we anticipate any reversals? Or will the world have to remain in lockdown for a generation to have an effect?

[Lewis]

While the pandemic has so far shown that emissions can be lowered, the science is showing that even if the entire globe stopped emitting carbon dioxide emissions today, CO2 will still rise for another decade at least. The current data is showing that this pandemic is showing very little effect on CO2 levels.

 

Satellites from the European Space Agency has shown a huge drop of NO2 all over Asia and Europe and NASA is showing huge drops over China and North America, NO2 comes directly from car engines and power plants and other industrial processes.

 

Its important to know that NO2 is not a greenhouse gas but rather an aerosol masking effect known as global dimming, it contributes towards global warming effects. As early as May we should start feeling the effects of the warming that will be brought on to us. There is usually a delay before the effects of this starts. So it should be a very hot year.

 

NOAA has projected 75% chance of 2020 of being the hottest year ever. Beating the current record of 2016 with even a super El Niño. 2020 is showing neutral on El Niño so far. 

[Lewis]

Billions projected to suffer nearly unlivable heat in 2070.

In just 50 years, 2 billion to 3.5 billion people, mostly the poor who can't afford air conditioning, will be living in a climate that historically has been too hot to handle, a new study said.

 

https://phys.org/news/2020-05-billions-unlivable.html

 

[BenJepthah]

18 hours ago, Lewis said:

Billions projected to suffer nearly unlivable heat in 2070.

In just 50 years, 2 billion to 3.5 billion people, mostly the poor who can't afford air conditioning, will be living in a climate that historically has been too hot to handle, a new study said.

 

https://phys.org/news/2020-05-billions-unlivable.html

 

Something the article does not mention. Precipitation.   I used to imagine that equatorial areas would become more 🐫 🌵 🐪 desert. But this will not be the case. In fact the water cycle will be amplified with more rainfall at the equator. This is already happening as demonstrated by the increase in agricultural land ( due to increased rainfall) in parts of Africa. Unfortunately those increases in rain and agriculture have also brought the current Locust problem. 

[Lewis]

Crazy Temperatures for May starting tomorrow all over US and Canada. Near 100 degrees temperature difference from west to east.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1258517061120090117

 

 

 

[BenJepthah]

On 5/7/2020 at 11:12 PM, Lewis said:

Crazy Temperatures for May starting tomorrow all over US and Canada. Near 100 degrees temperature difference from west to east.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1258517061120090117

 

 

 

Yeah, it’s almost as if we have entered a deep solar minimum or something.