Global Temperature Monthly Update

[Lewis]

Global Temperature Update for November 2019

 

Global Temperature in November was the second warmest in the 140 year record since 1880 (When measurements of adequate accuracy and spatial coverage began)

The warmest November’s were 2015 (+1.03C), 2019 (+1.02C) based on 1951 - 1980 mean.

 

As in October, parts of the U.S and Canada were unusually cold, but the cold area shifted eastward, entered around the Great Lakes where some locations were about 3C colder than the 1951 - 1980 mean. Much of the Northern Asia was also colder than average in November, but the Northern Hemisphere fall (Sept - Nov) as a whole was colder than average only in a Canada/US region (see map, blue)

 

The regional cold may have caused some to doubt the reality of global warming, but the maps confirm that this is a result of air exchange with the Arctic. Cold air outbreaks increase with a weakened jet stream, perhaps geography tends to favour a targeting of these cold air outbreaks on the United States.

 

So far we are trending for 2019 to be the second warmest year on record.

 

Hottest year on record based on 1951 - 1980 mean

2016 - 1.04C 

2019 - 0.97C

2017 - 0.90C

2015 - 0.87C

2018 - 0.83C (one more month to go)

 

http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/Emails/November2019.pdf

 

[Lewis]

Global Temperature Update for December 2019 & Year.

 

Global Temperature in December was the second warmest in the 140 year record since 1880 (When measurements of adequate accuracy and spatial coverage began)

 

Global surface temperatures in 2019 was the 2nd highest in the period of instrumental measurements in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis. The rate of global warming has accelerated in the past decade. The 2019 global temperature now stands at +1.2C  above the mean for 1880 - 1920 base period; global temperature in that base period is a reasonable estimate of ‘pre-industrial’ temperature. The five warmest years in the GISS record all occur in the past five years, and the 10 warmest years are all in the 21st century. Growth rates of the greenhouse gases driving global warming are increasing, not declining.

 

Average warming over land is twice as large as over ocean, and warming is greatest in the Arctic. The warming is reaching magnitudes at which it is easier for the public to notice that warming is occurring, even though it is small compared with the magnitude of weather fluctuations.

 

Cooling or absence of warming southeast of Greenland and in the Southern ocean surrounding Antarctica is associated with and likely a consequence of injection of freshwater in the upper ocean layers as a result of increasing melt of ice shelves and the ice sheets. If the melting rate continues to increase, the associated regional cooling will increase and may put a damper on global warming. That relative cooling effect, if it occurs, would be no cause for celebration as it would imply an increased heat flux into the ocean, an increased warming rate within the ocean that further increases the melt of ice shelves, and an accelerating rate of sea level rise.

 

[Lewis]

Global Temperature Update for January 2020

 

Global Temperature in January was the warmest January in the 141 year instrumental temperature measurement record since 1880 (When measurements of adequate accuracy and spatial coverage began) beating the old record of January 2016, the year with a large El Niño.

 

January 2020 Globally was 1.50C warmer than the 1880-1920. (In order to translate these temperatures to a pre-industrial baseline, we need to add 0.63C, making January 1.5C warmer than pre-industrial globally, and 3.73C in Europe.)

 

*Note* the 1.5C above pre-industrial, this January provides a glimpse of what life will be like after the 1.5C of warming: i.e large parts of the planet will have their seasons completely disrupted. Sustained over months and years one can only presume this will have a very significant consequences.

 

The contiguous U.S had its 5th warmest January, but Alaska was unusually cold. Parts of Siberia were much warmer than normal, by as much as 14C. For Europe it was the warmest January on record, about 0.2C warmer than the previous January in 2007. Average temperatures were especially high over large parts of northeastern Europe.

 

Left side of the figure below divides the world in three regions: northern and southern latitudes (each 30% of the globe) and the tropics (40% of the globe). The northern region, mostly land, has both the greatest warming and greatest variability. The map reveals the large warming at high northern latitudes over the past 50 years.

 

 

 

 

[Lewis]

Global Temperature update for February 2020.

 

February 2020, on global average, was the second warmest February since the reliable measurements began in 1880, at 1.26C relative to the 1951-1980 base period or 1.54C relative to the 1880 - 1920 base period. The Northern Hemisphere winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) was also the second warmest at 1.18C relative to the 1951-1980 base period or 1.47C relative to the 1880-1920 base period.

 

Warmest February was 2016 (+1.34C) relative to the 1951-1980 base period.

 

Most of Eurasia was unusually warm, with parts of Siberia being 10C or more warmer than the 1951-1980 mean in February. However, Alaska and the Arctic region north of Canada were unusually cold.

 

The Southern Ocean has cooled over the past half century, this cooling is a result of growing melt of Antarctic Ice shelves (freshwater reduces the density of Ocean surface water), which has caused the Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation (SMOC) to slow down. It is predicted in a paper (https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/acp-16-3761-2016.pdf) that SMOC will shut down entirely by mid-century, if greenhouse gases continues to increase rapidly. SMOC shutdown closes the escape valve for deep Southern Ocean heat; resulting deep Ocean warming is largest at the foot of the ice shelves. The ice shelf foot provides most of the restraining force that ice shelves exert on landward ice, so there is danger of a strong feedback and rapid sea level rise, if global warming continues to increase.

[Lewis]

NASA GISS February Global Average Surface Temperature Anomaly of 1.24C.

 

Large anomalies over China and Russia due to less pollution created during the China Covid-19 lockdown.

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/index_v4.html

 

[Vasilis]

So currently 2020 is as warm as 2016 if not warmer but lacks the super el nino?

[Lewis]

The rate of increase in global atmospheric CO2 levels has jumped above those during the Super El Niño (2015/16) according to NOAA site.

 

2015: 2.97ppm increase

2016: 2.82ppm increase

2017: 2.15ppm increase

2018: 2.37ppm increase

2019: 3.08ppm increase

 

Atmospheric CO2 concentration at the South Pole from 2010 to March 2020 shows that 2020 without any El Niño event is the first year on the record where the daily CO2 concentration from Jan to March has not dropped below the trend line, this means that atmospheric CO2 concentration are currently accelerating even at the South Pole.

 

But due to Covid-19, the aerosols masking effect have been less all around the world and has so far affected the weekly increase in CO2 readings, but not by much. But the temperature extremes that will be brought on by the lower aerosols this year will be interesting.

 

[Lewis]

Global Temperature update for March 2020.

 

March 2020, on global average, was the second warmest March since the reliable measurements began in 1880, at 1.19C relative to the 1951-1980 base period (1.46C relative to 1880-1920). The warmest March on record was 2016 at 1.36C; third warmest was 2019 at 1.18C, both relative to the 1951-1980 Mean.

 

Most of Russia was unusually warm, some places more than 10C warmer than the 1951-1980 mean, but northern India and large portion of Antarctica were unusually cold.

 

 

The graph on the upper right implies (because the 2020 temperatures cannot realistically exceed 2019, the red line, which was boosted by a weak El Niño) that the 12-month running mean temperature, which conveniently removes the seasonal cycle, is now at or near the relative maximum associated with the recent marginal El Niño (Graph below). The temperature is almost as high as the 12-month running mean in early 2016, which was enhanced by a Super El Niño.

 

Its concluded that the recent global warming rate is about 0.24C per decade, substantially larger than the arming rate of 0.18C per decade that characterized the past half century. 

 

[Lewis]

Global Temperature update for April 2020.

 

April 2020, on global average, was the warmest April since the reliable measurements began in 1880, at 1.16C relative to the 1951-1980 base period.The second warmest April was 2016 at 1.07C relative to the 1951-1980 base period.

 

L

 

 

[Lewis]

Preliminary reports are showing that May 2020 was the hottest May ever recorded, will have final report by the 15th.

[Lewis]

Global Temperature update for May 2020

 

May 2020 was the warmest May since adequate global data began in 1880, exceeding the next warmest May (2016) by 0.06C. Global surface temperature was 1.02C relative to 1951-1980 base Period and 1.29C relative to 1880-1920. That is the third monthly record in the first five months of 2020, despite the fact temperatures are not boosted by a strong El Niño.

 

Siberia continued to be unusually warm, with a large area more than 4C warmer than during the 1951-1980 base period (See Map below). However, large portions of the United States, Canada, Europe, Australia were cooler than they were in the 1951-1980 average.

 

 

The first five months of 2016 were relatively cool, aided by a shift from El Niño to La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific, so 2020 has a chance to be the warmest year. Thus, there were widespread media reports that 2020 likely would be the warmest year, based mainly on a NOAA prediction.

 

Columbia.eu suggested caution with that prediction, because of a strong evidence that 2020 is also headed into a La Niña. The research group predicting El Niño and La Niña has become notoriously conservative, almost waiting until one is in place before “predicting” it, but the NCEP model for several weeks has been consistently predicting a rather strong La Niña (Graph at bottom)

 

 

 

 

Edited June 13, 2020 by Lewis

[Lewis]

For the first time ever, every month so far this year has been at least 1C greater than the 1951-1980 climate baseline. 

 

 

http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/T_moreFigs/

 

V denotes major Volcanic eruptions

mM denotes the years of the minima and Maxima of sunspot number cycles.

[Lewis]

Global Temperature update for June 2020

 

June 2020 was the warmest June since adequate global data began in 1880, tied with 2019. Global surface temperature was 0.93C relative to the 1951-1980 base period and 1.21C relative to the 1880-1920.

 

Southern Siberia was cooler than the base period average in June, the first occurrence this year, but Northern Siberia continue to be unusually warm with a large area more than 5C warmer than the base period. Most land areas were warmer than the base period, but the northern part of India has been cooler than normal since December 2019.

 

The first half year of 2020 is still the 2nd warmest in the record at 1.12C relative to 1951-1980 and 1.40C relative to 1880-1920, but it has moved up close to the same months in 2016, which were at 1.13C.

 

The second half of 2016 was relatively cool, so 2020 has a good chance to be the warmest year. 

 

[Lewis]

Global Temperature update for July 2020

 

July 2020 was the second warmest July since adequate global data began in 1880, second to July 2019. Global temperature was 0.89C relative to the 1951-1980 base period and 1.12C relative to the 1880-1920.

 

The first seven months in 2020 was the second warmest January-July at 1.08C (1.36C relative to 1880-1920), but 2016 was just barely warmer at 1.09C relative to 1951-1980.

 

The important matter, however, is not the interesting horse race between 2020 and 2016, but rather the apparent acceleration of global warming during the past several years, as shown by the figures below. The 12 month running has reached its relative maximum and will decline during the next several months as the budding La Niña in the Tropical Pacific will cause global temperature in coming months to fall generally below the temperature in the corresponding months in 2019 

 

 

 

[Lewis]

Global Temperature update for August 2020

 

 

August 2020 was the fourth warmest August since adequate global data began in 1880. Global temperature was 0.85C relative to the 1951-1980 base period and 1.10C relative to the 1880-1920 mean. Warmer August were in 2016 (1.27C), 2019 (1.19C) and 2017 (1.12) relative to the 1880-1920 mean.

 

2020 thus stumbled in its horse race with 2016 for record warm year (upper right figure), perhaps dragged down by the developing La Niña (upper left fIgure), It’s still possible for 2020 to catch 2016 though, as the late months in 2016 were also coooed by La Niña.

 

The important question concerns the acceleration in global warming in recent years, as global temperature in the past five years has been well above the nearly linear trend of warming in the past 50 years.

 

it was extreme hot in the large portion of Central Europe and the Southwest United States in August, Death Valley, California reached a record high 130F (54.4C). This heat wave continued into September and its contributing to the severity and spread of wildfires in the western states.

 

 

[Lewis]

Global Temperature update for September 2020

 

 

September 2020 was the warmest September since adequate global data began in 1880. Global temperature was +1.00C relative to the 1951-1980 base period and +1.25C relative to 1880-1920. January - September 2020 mean of +1.05C relative to the 1951-1980 has pulled almost even with 2016 (+1.06C). 2020 has the inside rail position for the last three months (upper right graph), but 2020 is also running in deeper La Niña mud (Graph on left at the bottom of page), which seems headed for a practically a dead heat.

 

The important point is that there is an acceleration of global warming rate (Graph on lower right) in the past decade. This enhanced warmth is large enough to demand an explanation. The net growth rate of measured Climate forcing decreased during the period of accelerated warming. Widespread concern about factors such increase emissions of CH4 (Methane) and CO2 from melting tundra or fracking offer no explanation, because they are accounted for in measured gas amounts. The likely explanation is an increase of the large unmeasured climate forcing.

 

The global warming acceleration will become clearer in 2021 from the depth of global cooling that results from the growing 2020 La Niña, which should be comparable to the 2007 and 2010 La Niña.

 

[Lewis]

Preliminary reports showing October 2020 to be third warmest globally and hottest ever in Europe for October, will have final report by the 15th.

[Lewis]

Global temperature update for October 2020.

 

 

October 2020 was the 3rd warmest October, tied with 2017, since adequate global data began in 1880. Global temperature was +90C relative to the 1951-1980 and 1.13C relative to 1880-1920. Warmest October’s were 2015 (+1.08C), 2018 (+0.99C), 2017 & 2020 (+0.90C) relative to the 1951-1980 mean.

 

The January to October 2020 mean of +1.03C relative to 1951-1980 is nearly even with 2016 (+1.04C). For practical purpose 2020 and 2016 are tied for warmest year and will likely end that way, but their race provides entertainment during the COVID pandemic and a weak hint about climate physics. 2020 could pass 2016 in the next two months, because 2016 was stuck in La Niña mud (upper right and and lower left figures). 2020 is in a deeper La Niña, but 2020 is buoyed by 4-year growth of greenhouse gases (and possibly by less aerosol cooling, if only we knew the aerosol forcing).

 

A large area in Canada and the U.S was unusually cold (as much as 4C colder than 1951-1980) while California and Arizona remained very hot (4C hotter than 1951-1980 mean). The Arctic was extremely warm (as much as +10C at the Arctic Coast). That warmth is related to the unusually large ice-free area in the Arctic Ocean in October. 

 

A vast area of the Arctic Ocean remains ice free as November begins, far later in the season than is typical. The monthly average ice extent for October is the lowest in the satellite record. The sea ice area has increased rapidly in the past 2-3 weeks, but the ice thickness and ice volume are likely to remain unusually low.

 

[Lewis]

Preliminary reports showing November 2020 to be warmest November on record. December is trending to be warmest also. Final report on the 15th.

[Lewis]

November 2020 was the warmest November on record by a clear margin of 1.13C, jumping 2020 ahead of 2016 in the 11 month average. December 2016 was relatively cool, so it is clear that 2020 will slightly edge 2016 for the warmest year.

 

A record global temperature in 2020, despite a strong La Niña in recent months, reaffirms a global warming acceleration that is too large to be unforced noise, it implies an increased growth rate of the total global climate forcing and Earth’s energy imbalance. Growth of measured forcing (greenhouse gases plus solar irradiance) decreased during the period of increased warming, implying that atmospheric aerosols probably decreased in the past decade.

 

Temperatures were most above average over a large region covering much of Northern Europe, Siberia and the Arctic Ocean and bordering coastal seas, extending into western and northern Alaska and the far northwest of Canada, while temperatures were most below average over central and West Antarctica.

 

Remember the cry of the climate deniers? Many of them were counting on the Sun to go into a new, prolonged Maunder Minimum. That was possible, although the resulting negative climate forcing (cooling) would be small compared with the human made GHG forcing.

 

It turns out that, on the contrary, we are now entering the next solar cycle. Solar minimum was late in 2019. The uptick in irradiance is small so far, but the predictions from some solar models are that the coming maximum will be a strong one.

 

The impact of solar irradiance on global temperature lags solar irradiance by 1-2 years, so we are still on the point where we are getting maximum cooling from the solar cycle. Maximum added push of the solar cycle towards a warmer climate will be in about mid decade.

 

2021 will be cooler than 2020, because of the lagged effect of the current strong La Niña. When the next EL Nino occurs, perhaps in about mid decade, hang onto your hats because the little blip of extra warming that we got in the past five years is only a down payment for what’s really coming.

 

 

 

[Lewis]

It’s looking like 2020 will be the hottest ever, December just needs 0.59C above average of the 1980 - 2010 average to beat 2016 current record holder. Last I checked before months end, globally we were at 1.16C.

[Lewis]

Preliminary reports showing that 2020 is warmest on record beating 2016 by a very very slim margin of 0.001k.

[Lewis]

Global temperature update for Year 2020.

 

Global surface temperature in 2020 was in a virtual dead-heat tie with 2016 for warmest year in the period of instrumental data in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis. The rate of global warming has accelerated in the past several years. The 2020 global temperature was 1.3C (2.3F) warmer than in the 1880-1920 base period; global temperature in that base period is a reasonable estimate of ‘pre-industrial’ temperature, The 6 warmest years in the GISS record all occur in the past 6 years, and the 10 warmest years are all in the 21st century. Growth rates of the greenhouse gases driving global warming are increasing, not declining.

 

Update of the GISS global temperature analysis finds 2020 to be the warmest year in the instrumental record, but by an amount so slight (0.01C) that the difference with 2016 temperature is insignificant.

 

1880 - 1920 is a baseline that the scientific community use as a zero point for temperature anomalies, in part because it is the earliest period with substantial global coverage of instrumental measurements. Global temperature in 1880-1920 should approximate ‘preindustrial’ temperature, because the small warming from human made greenhouse gases in that period tends to be offset by unusually high volcanic activity then.

 

The 6 warmest years in the GISS record are the past 6 years, 2015-2020. (Chart below) compares the temperature anomalies for each of these years relative to the 1951-1980 base period. The 1951-1980 is also used as a baseline because the data includes Antarctica.

 

 

Decadal average surface temperature anomalies (chart below) show that since the 1970s each decade has been notably warmer than the prior decade. Average warming over land is twice as large as over ocean, and warming is greatest in the Arctic. Average warming over land is now about 3F (more than 1.5C). The warming is reaching magnitudes at which it is easier for the public to notice that warming is occurring, even though it is small compared with the magnitude of weather fluctuations.

 

Cooling or absence of warming southeast of Greenland and in the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica is associated with and likely a consequence of injection of freshwater in the upper ocean layers as a result of increasing melt of ice shelves and the ice sheets. If the melting rate continues to increase, the associated regional cooling will increase and may put a damper on (slow the rate of) global warming. The relative cooling effect, if it occurs, would be no cause for celebration, as it would imply an increased heat flux into the ocean, an increased warming rate within the ocean that further increases the melt of ice shelves, and an accelerating rate of sea level rise.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 15, 2021 by Lewis

[Lewis]

Global temperature update for January 2021

 

January 2021 was 0.32C cooler than January 2020, to which made it the 6th warmest January since adequate global data began in 1880, at +0.86C relative to the 1951-1980 base period or +1.17C relative to the 1880-1920 mean. Global maps of temperatures for the past 6 January’s below.

 

 

What can we learn this year about global warming acceleration? Since 2015 we’ve had an acceleration of global warming and the thing to watch is how much the current La Niña will cool the planet, specifically the blue line on the graph below.

If the blue line minimum does not drop below the red trend line, we probably have a real acceleration that we can then try to relate to climate forcing.

 

 

[Lewis]

Here are a few things to keep in mind regarding earth global temperatures when equating global surface temperatures to date.

 

 

As of December 31, 2020 Earth was 1.25C hotter than year 1900, based on 30 Year average (1880-1910)

 

As of December 31, 2020 Earth was 1.55C hotter than 1750 (actual year used for start of preindustrial)

 

Earth grew 0.3C hotter from 1750 to 1900 based on proxy evidence

 

Adequate global data began in 1880

 

Paris Climate Agreement in 2015 had numerous countries promise to strive to work together to keep the global average rise, relative to preindustrial (1750) below 2C, with aspirations to stay below 1.5C. However, they moved their start date to year 1900 as a baseline instead 1750. A lot of scientist calling this cheating or fraudulent.

 

When an El Niño happens you need to add 0.3C to the year

 

When an El Niño neutral happens you need to add 0.1C to the year

 

Had an El Niño happened in year 2020, temperature would have been 1.55C hotter than year 1900 or 1.85C hotter than year 1750.

 

An El Niño is projected active around 2023 - 2025, so you can imagine what type of numbers we will be getting.

 

 

Edited February 16, 2021 by Lewis