New economic wars; global economy at risk of splitting

[Brandon]

A slew of recent economic policy changes coming out of the two biggest national economies this week (US, and China, respectively) are starting a new economic war (possibly threatening to splinter the whole world's economics?)

 

Trump begins trade war, slaps high tariffs on steel and aluminum

 

1.  March 1st:  trump announces a tariff of  25% on steel and 10% aluminum

• Trump declares his trade war: targets steel, aluminum [axios.com / US news source]
• Canada seeks exemption to Trump's steel tariffs, vows retaliation [cbc.ca / Canadian]
• Trump's tariff announcement effect: Is a global trade war in the offing? [New Indian Express]

 

2. The European Union threatens to retaliate against Trump should a tariff on steel and aluminum be imposed.

 

3. March 3rd:  Trump counters with a threat to tariff European car manufacturers  [official tweet (not necessarily truthful)]

 

China ceasing to import foreign waste

note: China used to import over half the world's plastic waste, recycling it into consumer goods which were sold back to those countries

 

1. January 1st:  China stops importing 24 classes of plastic and paper

 

2. March 1st:  China tightens their garbage contamination rules, now stricter than the global norms

 

sources: the Financial Times, CNN, Bloomberg, and others,  via WikiTribune: China refuses ‘foreign garbage,’ leaving waste mountains in West [WikiTribune.com]

Edited March 4, 2018 by Shawnster

[njwinans]

The bottom of Daniels statue was a conglomeration of clay and iron... making it unstable.  See the correlation?

 

Quote

Daniel 2:41-43 “And just as you saw the feet and the toes to be partly of clay of a potter and partly of iron, the kingdom will be divided, but some of the hardness of iron will be in it, just as you saw the iron mixed with soft clay. And as the toes of the feet were partly of iron and partly of clay, so the kingdom will be partly strong and partly fragile. Just as you saw iron mixed with soft clay, they will be mixed with the people; but they will not stick together, one to the other, just as iron does not mix with clay.

 

[Greg Dent]

Yup Trump is out of his mind if he thinks this will benefit the US! 75% of all the steel and aluminum the US uses comes from Canada. If he does that he will damage all the manufacturers and car makers in the US. These tariffs will increase consumers costs at all levels. From toys to cars to machinery to build road equipment to structural steel for buildings and everything in between. It will be interesting to see what happens. This could spell the collapse of economies all over the world in time.

[Dustparticle]

Things like this happens all the time. We just have to wait and see.

[Brandon]

2 hours ago, Dustparticle said:

Things like this happens all the time.

 

it's a little bit different this time, both because of the degree of severity and the randomness of it. Normally governments by definition move slowly and give notice for fear of destroying the world economy (even the Chinese rules in this case were announced in July 2017) but everything the current US president seems to do comes out of seemingly no where.

 

I'm not really "worried" about the world economy (there is a little part of me that is excited to see it all burn down), and I often wonder if harder economic conditions don't sort of draw us together inside our congregations.  bit of a silver lining, I guess.  At the very least I do believe that a "functioning" economy that keeps producing more and more each year tends to breed materialism (posing a greater challenge to spirituality overall in a society).

[Brandon]

11 hours ago, njwinans said:

The bottom of Daniels statue was a conglomeration of clay and iron... making it unstable.  See the correlation?

 

I do understand what the clay and iron represent, but we are taught that the toes represent only the anglo-american world power, rather than the entire world (or world economy).

[njwinans]

2 hours ago, Brandon said:

 

I do understand what the clay and iron represent, but we are taught that the toes represent only the anglo-american world power, rather than the entire world (or world economy).

 

 

Quote

*** w12 6/15 p. 19 Questions From Readers ***
The clay that is mixed with iron represents elements within the realm of the ironlike Anglo-American World Power. Over time, this clay has made it difficult for that power to be as strong as it would like to be.
 

 

^^^ true but I am thinking that there was new light on the matter that it means the whole world not just the anglo-american world power.  Someone else remember that?

[Shawnster]

2 hours ago, njwinans said:

 

 

 

^^^ true but I am thinking that there was new light on the matter that it means the whole world not just the anglo-american world power.  Someone else remember that?

No, there was no new light on that.  It sounds like something we used to believe, though. 

 

The most recent adjustment is the Watchtower from 2012. That is the new understanding.  

[njwinans]

22 minutes ago, Shawnster said:

No, there was no new light on that.  It sounds like something we used to believe, though. 

 

The most recent adjustment is the Watchtower from 2012. That is the new understanding.  

 

I might be thinking of Gog.  :/  

[Wm-Scott]

7 hours ago, Brandon said:

do understand what the clay and iron represent, but we are taught that the toes represent only the anglo-american world power, rather than the entire world (or world economy).

 

Since the current understanding is that the feet of the statue represents the anglo-amercian world power  the iron and clay must represent elements within the world power, particularly in Amercia the dominant part of the 7th beast. Since Amercia is practically ready to split into two different warring camps ready to fight a civil war, my guess would be that the iron represents the Republican far right while the clay represents the Democratic far left. The county is deeply divided along party lines and is becoming more polarized each day. People here are moving towards more extreme political views and increasingly demonize the other side. Of course in ten years time perhaps America will be deeply divided over whether eggs should be cracked open on the big end or the little end. There is a tendency to view current events as fitting key elements in the prophesies when some of them maybe nothing more than passing fads. Even the current political parties could pass away. Any one remember the Wig party or the Bullmoose party? Some details may only become clear closer to the end, but I can't help wondering if we are approaching the time when these things will become clearly evident.

[thebluebaron]

Is protectionism a bad thing?  Well that depends on your aims, remember there are no votes in Canada for Trump or any other political party.

 

The one thing you must remember is that China doesn't pay its workers like the Western world does nor do they have any intention to do so and this makes it 'unfair' to the world economy.  It also steals intellectual rights and mass produces them.

 

In Europe, the EU is not as innocent at it likes to make out.

 

Protectionism - Definition

[Brandon]

16 hours ago, thebluebaron said:

Is protectionism a bad thing? ...remember there are no votes in Canada for Trump

 

please don't take this in a bad way brother, but I really have no idea what you're trying to say here.

 

[thebluebaron]

Suppose that Trump creates or increases steel tariffs with Canada, the losers are Canadians. On the other hand, the beneficiaries will be American steelworkers and potential Trump voters.

 

The main reasons for tariffs are political and not economical. Ultimately, the reduction of choice within a market damages the end user through higher prices and reduced quality.

 

I would imagine the reason for announcing these tariff is to wind up the Chinese in the run up to their party conference and engage in a bit of currency and commodities/stock market warfare.

 

One example of this is to say, “we are not buying  your goods”, theoretical demand drops and its price.  You then swoop in and buy!

[trottigy]

3 hours ago, thebluebaron said:

Suppose that Trump creates or increases steel tariffs with Canada, the losers are Canadians. On the other hand, the beneficiaries will be American steelworkers and potential Trump voters.

 

The main reasons for tariffs are political and not economical. Ultimately, the reduction of choice within a market damages the end user through higher prices and reduced quality.

 

 

 

This is not completely true. 

 

There are many American businesses that rely on steel and aluminum. When tariffs are added the price for these raw materials goes up. The US is NOT  making this stuff cheaper. US Steel will go up TOO. Then who pays - all the consumers - including and especially - the US ones that buy these products. For example: cars, building materials, etc. These things will cost more. It's a lot like taxing the local consumer to "punish" other countries. The consumer is really the one getting the bad end - and so will businesses - as sales go down when prices go up. This is why many of the congressmen in the Presidents own party are saying it is a bad idea AND why his "Economic" advisor is quiting.

 

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/03/06/gary-cohn-wh-chief-economic-adviser-announces-resignation-hours-after-signaling-wont-back-tariffs.html

 

[trottigy]

Well it's signed now. Fortunately, he exempted Mexico and Canada as they are the largest import source of these, but we can be sure that inflation will take off. It won't be like Venezuela, but it will start going up faster than it has over the last decade. Then the Fed will raise rates faster to keep up. That's good for savers and saving accounts (and bad for those with 401ks), and bad for any who have to buy stuff - especially homes.

 

Just another thought - it's also good news that the economy won't take off too fast - even with the trillion dollars added to it thru the tax cuts. But bad news that the government programs will be short by a trillion and with nothing really to show for it.

 

Well, let's watch and see what happens and keep praying for the only solution - the Kingdom. 

 

Edited March 9, 2018 by trottigy

[Tortuga]

On 3/8/2018 at 7:41 PM, trottigy said:

Then the Fed will raise rates faster to keep up. That's good for savers and saving accounts

Also a good time to buy annuities...

[Wm-Scott]

This seems to be the flash in pan option where the US government creates a situation that causes a brief sudden surge in the economy. Tarffs can trigger a surge in some domestic businesses as foreign competitors are tarffed out of the domestic market. Local companies surge and hire many people tightening local labor market, wages skyrocket and consumer spending goes off the charts. But not everybody wins as major exporting economies like China implode and cheap labor countries are cut off from participating in the global economy. First world economies are on fire as they pull in the wealth of the world in a huge fire storm as the rest of the world collapses. Inflation takes off like a rocket in the first world economies driving living costs higher and sending interest rates soaring. Governments with huge debts like the US can not afford a large increase in the interest charged on the national debt. The financial fuse will be lit for the debt bomb. Everyone living beyound their means, including governments, businesses and individuals will be crushed as their interest payments go up and up. Those who listened to the warnings about living within your means and not pursuing a materialistic lifestyle will find themselves with some breathing room others will not have.

 

A series of events may have now started that can not be easily stopped and may lead to a chain reaction financial disaster that in the early stages may appear as financial security, but will quickly get out of control. Pay off your debts, learn how to live on less and get ready for a rainy day. I think a storm is coming, even if it may look sunny at first.

 

 

[trottigy]

I think with all the "carve outs", it will be mostly meaningless, but we'll see.

 

Always good to work at being debt free and simplifying.

[Brandon]

An interesting fact I heard listening to an NPR podcast a few days ago:

 

guess who the biggest importer of American coal is?  Brazil. and guess what most of that coal is used for?    to create steel which is sold back to the US...

 

trump's plan seems like it could easily backfire

[Greg Dent]

Your right Brandon it could backfire very easily. I still think that prices of products that use these metal will go up in the US. Not as much but it could effect companies bottom lines. Trump thinks it will make more jobs. Well he may have another thing coming. It could still raise the price of cars appliances and other items. Watch out for metal scrappers. Or people that collect scrap metal. THey will be all over it as the price increases.