ENSO

[Lewis]

Passing +1.2 now

 

[Lewis]

The winds have now joined in and the buoy’s have seen its atmospheric CO2 levels drop significantly, this drop in Ocean to atmosphere in CO2 exchange is typical for El Niño event, yet BOM has yet to declare El Niño event.

 

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/Open+Ocean+Moorings

 

 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

14 September 2023

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

Synopsis:  El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than 95% chance through January - March 2024). In August, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were above average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1], with strengthening in the central and east-central Pacific. All of the latest weekly Niño indices were in excess of +1.0°C: Niño-4 was +1.1°C, Niño-3.4 was +1.6°C, Niño-3 was +2.2°C, and Niño1+2 was +2.9°C [Fig. 2]. Area-averaged subsurface temperatures anomalies increased compared to July [Fig. 3] in association with anomalous warmth in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Tropical atmospheric anomalies were also consistent with El Niño. Over the east-central Pacific, low-level winds were anomalously westerly, while upper-level winds were anomalously easterly. Convection was slightly enhanced around the International Date Line, stretching into the eastern Pacific, just north of the equator. Convection was mostly suppressed around Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the traditional station-based SOI were both significantly negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected El Niño. The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24 [Fig. 6]. Despite nearly the same ensemble mean amplitude as last month, the shorter forecast horizon means that the odds of at least a "strong" El Niño (≥1.5°C for the November-January seasonal average in Niño-3.4) have increased to 71%. However, a strong El Niño does not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally, with the odds of related climate anomalies often lower than the chances of El Niño itself (e.g., CPC's seasonal outlooks). In summary, El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than 95% chance through January - March 2024; [Fig. 7]). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12 October 2023.

[Lewis]

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) just finally declared El Niño and also Indian Ocean Dipole.

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[Lewis]

The increase in Global temperatures in the current El Niño implies a strong acceleration of Global Warming. The current El Niño will probably be weaker than the 1997-1998 & 2015-2016 El Niños, however, that could change in the coming months. Current forecast is for a Strong El Niño.

 

 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

12 October 2023

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

Synopsis:  El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (with an 80% chance during March-May 2024). In September, equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were above average [Fig. 1], though positive anomalies weakened in the eastern Pacific. All of the latest weekly Niño index values remained in excess of +1.0°C: Niño-4 was +1.2°C, Niño-3.4 was +1.5°C, Niño-3 was +1.9°C, and Niño1+2 was +2.6°C [Fig. 2]. Area-averaged subsurface temperatures anomalies decreased [Fig. 3], but remained above-average, consistent with elevated subsurface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Tropical atmospheric anomalies were consistent with El Niño. In areas of the central Pacific, low-level winds were anomalously westerly, while upper-level winds were anomalously easterly. Convection was enhanced around the International Date Line, stretching into the eastern Pacific, just north of the equator. Convection was suppressed near Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the traditional station-based SOI were both significantly negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected El Niño. The most recent IRI plume favors El Niño to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2024 [Fig. 6]. Also considering recent observations and the NMME, the team favors at least a "strong" event with a 75-85% chance through November-January (≥ 1.5°C for the seasonal average in Niño-3.4). There is a 3 in 10 chance of a "historically strong" event that rivals 2015-16 and 1997-98 (seasonal average ≥ 2.0°C). Stronger El Niño events increase the likelihood of El Niño-related climate anomalies, but do not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally. Consider consulting CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation in the coming seasons. In summary, El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (with an 80% chance during March-May 2024; [Fig. 7]). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 November 2023

[Lewis]

Pushing past 1.3

 

[Lewis]

El Niño passed 1.4 on the index, continuing to rise. We are heading for a strong El Niño for sure.

 

[Lewis]

El Niño is now Strong

 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

9 November 2023

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

Synopsis:  El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (with a 62% chance during April-June 2024). Above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1] were indicative of a strong El Niño, with anomalies increasing in the central and east-central Pacific in the past month. The latest weekly Niño index values were +1.4°C in Niño-4, +1.8°C in Niño-3.4, +2.1°C in Niño-3, and +2.2°C in Niño-1+2 [Fig. 2]. Area-averaged subsurface temperatures anomalies increased slightly [Fig. 3] associated with the initiation of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which strengthened above-average subsurface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were westerly in the east-central Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were easterly in the western and central Pacific. Convection/rainfall was enhanced around the International Date Line, extending into the eastern Pacific. Suppressed convection/rainfall strengthened around Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the station-based SOI remained negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a growing El Niño. The most recent IRI plume favors El Niño to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2024 [Fig. 6]. Based on latest forecasts, there is a greater than 55% chance of at least a "strong" El Niño (≥ 1.5°C in Niño-3.4 for a seasonal average) persisting through January-March 2024. There is a 35% chance of this event becoming "historically strong" (≥ 2.0°C) for the November-January season. Stronger El Niño events increase the likelihood of El Niño-related climate anomalies, but do not necessarily equate to strong impacts (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation). In summary, El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (with a 62% chance during April-June 2024; [Fig. 7]). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 14 December 2023.

[Lewis]

NOAA has reported in its report today that El Niño index 3.4 is now at 2.1C this week, Last week it was at 1.9C.

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[Lewis]

A super El Niño is ever increasing according to NOAA, could be as strong as the 1997/1988 or 2015/2016 Super El Niños.

 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

14 December 2023

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

Synopsis:  El Niño is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (60% chance). Sea surface temperatures (SST) were above average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1], increasing in the central and east-central Pacific during November. The growth in SST anomalies, however, abated in early December, with the latest weekly Niño index values at +1.4°C in Niño-4, +1.9°C in Niño-3.4, +2.0°C in Niño-3, and +1.3°C in Niño-1+2 [Fig. 2]. Area-averaged positive subsurface temperature anomalies increased significantly during November [Fig. 3], reflecting the strengthening of above-average subsurface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific associated with a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were westerly in the central and eastern Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were easterly across the Pacific. Convection/rainfall remained enhanced at the Date Line and was suppressed around Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the station-based SOI were negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a strong El Niño. The most recent IRI plume favors El Niño to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24 [Fig. 6]. Based on the latest forecasts, there is now a 54% chance of a "historically strong" El Niño during the November-January season (≥ 2.0°C in Niño-3.4). An event of this strength would potentially be in the top 5 of El Niño events since 1950. While stronger El Niño events increase the likelihood of El Niño-related climate anomalies, it does not imply expected impacts will emerge in all locations or be of strong intensity (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation). In summary, El Niño is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (60% chance; [Fig. 7]). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 January 2024.

[Lewis]

El Niño will fade in the next few months, but we should still see a record of monthly temperature that will continue this year due to earth unprecedented energy imbalance.
 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

11 January 2024

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

Synopsis:  El Niño is expected to continue for the next several seasons, with ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (73% chance). Above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) persisted across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with the largest anomalies observed in the central and east-central Pacific [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño index values remained at +1.4°C in Niño-4, +1.9°C in Niño-3.4, and +2.0°C in Niño-3, while Niño-1+2 weakened to +1.0°C [Fig. 2]. Area-averaged positive subsurface temperature anomalies decreased in December [Fig. 3], reflecting the strengthening and eastward expansion of below-average subsurface temperatures in the western Pacific [Fig. 4]. Over the east-central Pacific Ocean, low-level wind anomalies were westerly, while upper-level wind anomalies were easterly. Convection/rainfall remained enhanced at the Date Line and was suppressed around Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The equatorial and station-based SOI were negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a strong and mature El Niño. The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will gradually weaken and then transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024 [Fig. 6]. Some state-of the-art dynamical climate models suggest a transition to ENSO-neutral as soon as March-May 2024. The forecast team, however, delays this timing and strongly favors a transition to ENSO-neutral in April-June 2024. There are also increasing odds of La Niña in the seasons following a shift to ENSO-neutral. It is typical for El Niño to peak in December/early January, but despite weakening, its impacts on the United States could last through April (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation). In summary, El Niño is expected to continue for the next several seasons, with ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (73% chance; [Fig. 7]). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 February 2024

[Lewis]

Looking like a very short transition between El Niño to Neutral to La Niña, projection for La Niña should happen between June and August, however, this projection could be wrong as the Pacific surface is still quite warm right now indication El Niño is holding. Even if La Niña develops, temperature dip will be minimal. January was the hottest January on record.

 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

8 February 2024

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch

Synopsis:  A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance). During January 2024, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. SST anomalies weakened slightly in the eastern and east-central Pacific, as indicated by the weekly Niño index values [Fig. 2]. However, changes were more pronounced below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with area-averaged subsurface temperature anomalies returning to near zero [Fig. 3]. Although above-average temperatures persisted in the upper 100 meters of the equatorial Pacific, below-average temperatures were widespread at greater depths [Fig. 4]. Atmospheric anomalies across the tropical Pacific also weakened during January. Low-level winds were near average over the equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific. Convection remained slightly enhanced near the Date Line and was close to average around Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a weakening El Niño. The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during summer 2024 [Fig. 6]. Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events. The forecast team is in agreement with the latest model guidance, with some uncertainty around the timing of transitions to ENSO-neutral and, following that, La Niña. Even as the current El Niño weakens, impacts on the United States could persist through April 2024 (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation). In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance; [Fig. 7]). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 14 March 2024.

[Lewis]

EL Niño is ending, ENSO Neutral by April/May then quick transition to La Niña.

 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

14 March 2024

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch

Synopsis:  A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (83% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (62% chance). During February 2024, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to weaken across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In the last week, below-average SSTs emerged in a small region of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (~100°W; [Fig. 1]). The weekly Niño indices weakened but remained positive, with the latest value in Niño-3.4 standing at 1.4°C [Fig. 2]. Area-averaged subsurface temperature anomalies were slightly negative [Fig. 3], reflecting the consequences of an upwelling Kelvin wave and associated below-average temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level winds were near average over most of the equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific. Convection was enhanced near the Date Line and was suppressed near Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a weakening El Niño. The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during summer 2024 [Fig. 6]. While different types of models suggest La Niña will develop, the forecast team favors the dynamical model guidance, which is slightly more accurate for forecasts made during this time of year. Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events. In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (83% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (62% chance; [Fig. 7]). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 April 2024.

[Friends just call me Ross]

I hope the return of La Nina brings more rain and more moderate temps to the Upper Midwest of the USA. 

[Loopy]

Yeah 70’s would be fine with me. 🥰🥰🥰🥰

[CHecker]

I'm wondering if we're going to have another dry season. We've had some really intense rainfall the first couple months but now mid March it's sunny and over 75F.

Where I live it's typically more moist and a cooler environment but last year it was so dry our conifers, berries of all sorts and shrubs all dried up. No fruit and needles of so many trees falling. I love warm dry weather but it's really not good for this part of the world. It was just so shocking last year to not have ANY blackberries at all, I have so many that I've harvested 5 gallons of them with no trouble. And wow, the blueberry fields closed as well, no berries. I've never seen anything like that. 

Hmm, will see what happens.

[hatcheckgirl]

I was walking in the bush this morning. A lot of the trees have died, as have the bushes. More than anything I've seen before. Even along the dried watercourses, which must mean the water table has dropped.

 

We don’t have a drought here atm where I am, but because it hardly ever rains in summer, the bush has to adapt. But this past summer the temps were so high and for so long, it literally scorched the plants and trees. Even in gardens where we water our plants, all of us can see the plants struggled with the intensity of heat and long heatwave without relief. 

[CHecker]

5 minutes ago, hatcheckgirl said:

I was walking in the bush this morning. A lot of the trees have died, as have the bushes. More than anything I've seen before. Even along the dried watercourses, which must mean the water table has dropped.

 

We don’t have a drought here atm where I am, but because it hardly ever rains in summer, the bush has to adapt. But this past summer the temps were so high and for so long, it literally scorched the plants and trees. Even in gardens where we water our plants, all of us can see the plants struggled with the intensity of heat and long heatwave without relief. 

I can completely agree with all of that Lucy. Unprecedented weather.

[hatcheckgirl]

On 3/16/2024 at 9:02 AM, Lewis said:

EL Niño is ending, ENSO Neutral by April/May then quick transition to La Niña.

Thanks for the updates, Carl. I don’t always understand the scientific explanation, but we can all see that the whole natural world is suffering. Our amazing video this week coming up on “Use Creation to Build Your Faith” mentioned the ocean currents churning to distribute heat, which keeps our weather stable. And science is showing the instability happening in Jehovah’s natural complex and interrelated systems. He will be acting soon.

[Lewis]

On 3/16/2024 at 11:23 AM, Friends just call me Ross said:

I hope the return of La Nina brings more rain and more moderate temps to the Upper Midwest of the USA. 

 

Yeah for sure, but the intensities of these two phases are getting stronger each time. Where I am now, we are in drought and Environment Canada state that we may have a stronger fire season this year. Not looking forward to that.

[Friends just call me Ross]

35 minutes ago, Lewis said:

 

Yeah for sure, but the intensities of these two phases are getting stronger each time. Where I am now, we are in drought and Environment Canada state that we may have a stronger fire season this year. Not looking forward to that.

 

I am not looking forward to what our drought means for our fire season here, either.  

 

I fear I will not be able to enjoy sitting around a single campfire all spring and summer long. 🥲

[Lewis]

Status about same as last month.

 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

11 April 2024

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch

Synopsis:  A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (60% chance). During March 2024, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to weaken across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. SST anomalies were coolest in the far eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1], with the latest weekly Niño-1+2 value at -0.1°C [Fig. 2]. Weekly SST index values in the other Niño regions were between +0.9°C and +1.2°C. Below-average subsurface temperatures strengthened (area-averaged index in [Fig. 3]), reflecting the expansion of negative subsurface anomalies associated with an upwelling Kelvin wave [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the west-central equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly near average. Equatorial convection was slightly suppressed around the Date Line and was near average around Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the continued weakening of El Niño. The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during late summer 2024 [Fig. 6]. The forecast team continues to favor the dynamical model guidance, which is slightly more accurate than statistical models during this time of year. La Niña tends to follow strong El Niño events, which also provides added confidence in the model guidance favoring La Niña. In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (60% chance; [Fig. 7]). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 May 2024.

[Friends just call me Ross]

I'm gonna miss the little guy.

 

He brought us the mildest Winter we have ever experienced here, in Michigan's Upper Peninsula.

 

 

 

 

[Lewis]

 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

9 May 2024

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch

Synopsis:  A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely in the next month. La Niña may develop in June-August (49% chance) or July-September (69% chance). During April 2024, below-average equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) emerged in small regions of the eastern Pacific Ocean. However, above-average SSTs prevailed across the rest of the equatorial Pacific [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño index values remained between +0.5°C and +0.8°C in all regions, except for Niño-3 which was +0.3°C [Fig. 2]. Below-average subsurface temperatures held steady during the month (area-averaged index in [Fig. 3]), with negative anomalies extending from the Date Line to the eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the western equatorial Pacific, while upper-level winds were near average. Convection was near average overall across the equatorial Pacific Ocean and Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the continued weakening of El Niño and transition toward ENSO-neutral. The most recent IRI plume favors an imminent transition to ENSO-neutral, with La Niña developing during July-September 2024 and then persisting through the Northern Hemisphere winter [Fig. 6]. The forecast team continues to favor the dynamical model guidance, which suggests La Niña could form as early as June-August 2024, with higher confidence of La Niña during the following seasons. La Niña generally tends to follow strong El Niño events, which also provides added confidence in the model guidance favoring La Niña. In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely in the next month. La Niña may develop in June-August (49% chance) or July-September (69% chance; [Fig. 7]). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 13 June 2024.

[Lewis]

El Niño is over, now in ENSO neutral.

 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

13 June 2024

ENSO Alert System Status: Final El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch

Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral conditions are present. La Niña is favored to develop during July-September (65% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (85% chance during November-January). ENSO-neutral conditions returned during the past month. Near-to-below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) expanded across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The most recent weekly Niño-3.4 index was +0.1°C, while SST anomalies remained cooler in the far eastern Niño-1+2 region (-0.5°C) and warmer in the western Niño-4 region (+0.8°C; [Fig. 2]). Below-average subsurface temperatures were mostly unchanged during the past month (area-averaged index in [Fig. 3]), with negative anomalies persisting in the eastern half of the Pacific [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central equatorial Pacific, and upper-level winds were near average. Convection was mostly average around Indonesia, while below-average rainfall strengthened near the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral conditions. The most recent IRI plume indicates La Niña may develop during July-September 2024 and then persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter [Fig. 6]. The forecast team is also favoring the development of La Niña during July-September because the rate of cooling has slowed since last month. The team still favors La Niña to emerge sometime during the summer months, given the persistent below-average subsurface ocean temperatures and changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation. In summary, ENSO-neutral conditions are present. La Niña is favored to develop during July-September (65% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (85% chance during November-January; [Fig. 7]). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 July 2024.

[Lewis]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

11 July 2024

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch

Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral is expected to continue for the next several months, with La Niña favored to emerge during August-October (70% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (79% chance during November-January). ENSO-neutral continued this past month, indicated in the mostly near average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The most recent weekly Niño-3.4 index was +0.3°C, while SST anomalies remained cooler in the eastern Niño-3 region (-0.1°C) and warmer in the western Niño-4 region (+0.5°C; [Fig. 2]). Below-average subsurface temperatures weakened during the past month (area-averaged index in [Fig. 3]), but negative anomalies still dominated the eastern half of the Pacific [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the western equatorial Pacific, and upper-level winds were westerly over the eastern Pacific. Convection was near average around Indonesia and the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral. Compared to the previous month, the most recent IRI plume delayed the emergence of La Niña to September-November 2024, with La Niña then persisting through the Northern Hemisphere winter [Fig. 6]. The forecast team is also favoring a delayed development of La Niña this month, but is anticipating the transition to occur earlier (August-October). This is, in part, supported by the continuation of below-average subsurface ocean temperatures and near-term forecasts suggesting a resurgence of easterly wind anomalies in July. In summary, ENSO-neutral is expected to continue for the next several months, with La Niña favored to emerge during August-October (70% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (79% chance during November-January; [Fig. 7]). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 August 2024.