ENSO

[Lewis]

ENSO Neutral will be soon, which means we will be at 1.26C Global surface temperature.

 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

9 February 2023

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to begin within the next couple of months, and persist through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer. Although a weak La Niña was still apparent during January, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continued to weaken further across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño index values were mostly near -0.5°C, with the exception of Niño-1+2 which was +0.1°C [Fig. 2]. Like the surface, negative subsurface temperature anomalies continued to weaken [Fig. 3], with above-average subsurface temperatures expanding eastward at depth and near the surface of the eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level easterly wind anomalies continued, but were confined to the western and central Pacific Ocean. Upper-level westerly wind anomalies were evident over the east-central Pacific. Suppressed convection persisted over the western and central tropical Pacific, while enhanced convection was observed over western Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect La Niña. The most recent IRI plume predicts a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral in the next couple of months [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus is largely in agreement. ENSO-neutral is expected to prevail during the spring and early summer. There are increasing chances of El Niño at longer forecast horizons, though uncertainty remains high because of the spring prediction barrier, which typically is associated with lower forecast accuracy. In summary, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to begin within the next couple of months, and persist through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer [Fig. 7]. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 March 2023.

[Lewis]

 

La Niña is officially over and now in ENSO Neutral. Looking like strong probability of + EL Nino by mid to late summer. Will be a rough time period when this starts.

 

 

 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

9 March 2023

ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Niña Advisory

Synopsis:  La Niña has ended and ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer 2023. During February 2023, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) weakened and currently persist only in the central Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was -0.2°C [Fig. 2]. In contrast to the central Pacific, SSTs in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean were significantly above average, with the latest Niño-1+2 index value at +1.1°C. In the last month, area-averaged subsurface temperatures became slightly above average [Fig. 3], with positive temperature anomalies spanning the Pacific, though remaining mostly at depth [Fig. 4]. The atmospheric circulation anomalies across the tropical Pacific are lagging the changes in the ocean. Low-level easterly wind anomalies continue over the central Pacific Ocean. Upper-level westerly wind anomalies were evident over most of the Pacific. Suppressed convection persisted over the central tropical Pacific, while enhanced convection was observed over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system was consistent with ENSO-neutral. The most recent IRI plume favors ENSO-neutral to continue through the spring, with El Niño forming during summer 2023 and persisting through the fall [Fig. 6]. In contrast, the forecaster consensus favors ENSO-neutral through summer 2023, with elevated chances of El Niño developing afterwards. The smaller chances of El Niño relative to the model predictions are primarily because ENSO forecasts made during the spring are less accurate, and also the tropical Pacific atmosphere is still fairly consistent with a cool/La Niña-like state. However, it is possible that strong warming near South America may portend a more rapid evolution toward El Niño and will be closely monitored. In summary, La Niña has ended and ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer 2023 [Fig. 7]. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 13 April 2023.

 

 

 

[Lewis]

 

In the sea surface temperature gif above, you will notice a red patch of warm water growing off the cost of Ecuador & Peru. It appears an El Niño event is forming that will specifically affect Peru ‘s weather that may bring loads of rain. This El Niño event is a separate event from the larger scale El Niño that the rest of the world experience. A heavier rainfall is expected this month and apparently has started in the northern part of Peru.

 

An alert notice was issued, see link below.

 

https://www.gob.pe/institucion/imarpe/noticias/719268-nota-de-prensa-02-2023-estado-del-sistema-de-alerta-vigilancia-de-el-nino-costero?_x_tr_sl=es&_x_tr_t=en&_x_tr_hl=es&_X

 

Translation to English below

 

March 1, 2023 - 3:02 PM m. The ENFEN Multisectoral Commission changes the Alert System Status from “Not active” to “Coastal El Niño Surveillance”(1), since there is a greater probability that the anomalous warming observed will continue between the remainder of the summer and, therefore, soon, until mid-autumn 2023. This is due to the recent evolution of ocean-atmospheric conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific end, which includes the north and center of the Peruvian sea, and the forecast of warm Kelvin waves that would arrive between March and May. Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 1+2 region could reach values above 27°C and 26°C in March and April, respectively. Associated with this warming, and according to the current seasonal forecast of rains for March-May 20232, it is expected that, in the north and central coast, in addition to the northern and central-western mountains of the country, there will be episodes of moderate to strong intensity especially in March. On the other hand, for the central Pacific region, most international models estimate a higher probability that neutral conditions will remain until May and that a transition to warm conditions will then occur. It should be noted that forecasts for beyond autumn show high uncertainty due to the predictability barrier. Decision makers are recommended to take into account possible risk scenarios in accordance with the current seasonal forecast for disaster risk prevention and reduction purposes. The ENFEN Multisectoral Commission continues to monitor and report on the evolution of oceanic-atmospheric conditions and update the outlook. In view of the present conditions, ENFEN will issue its next official statement on March 16, 2023.

[Lewis]

Enso Neutral is short lived as El Niño is quickly approaching. High probability of a super El Niño by next year.

 

 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

13 April 2023

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring, followed by a 62% chance of El Niño developing during May-July 2023. During the last month, above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) became more prominent in the western and far eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was 0.0°C, but the Niño1+2 index value was +2.7°C, indicating significant warming along the South American coast [Fig. 2]. Area-averaged subsurface temperatures also increased over the past month [Fig. 3], reflecting the dominance of above-average subsurface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. For the monthly average, upper-level and low-level winds were near normal across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. However, low-level westerly wind anomalies were evident in the first half of March associated with sub-seasonal activity. Suppressed convection was evident over the central tropical Pacific and over parts of Indonesia [Fig. 5]. While the warming near coastal South America was striking, the basin-wide coupled ocean-atmosphere system was consistent with ENSO-neutral. The most recent IRI plume favors a transition to El Niño, beginning June-August 2023 and persisting into the winter [Fig. 6]. While the lower accuracy of forecasts during the spring can result in surprises, the recent oceanic Kelvin wave plus recurring westerly wind anomalies are anticipated to further warm the tropical Pacific Ocean. The coastal warming in the eastern Pacific may foreshadow changes across the Pacific basin. Therefore, an El Niño Watch has been issued, and the range of possibilities toward the end of the year includes a strong El Niño (4 in 10 chance of Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.5°C) to no El Niño (1 in 10 chance). In summary, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring, followed by a 62% chance of El Niño developing during May-July 2023 [Fig. 7]. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 May 2023

[Lewis]

The Australia Government are forecasting a Super El Niño by August now and with the rise in Ocean temperature worldwide, we could be seeing world wide events with these extreme heatwave/domes. 

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/spring-ocean-temperatures-are-shockingly-hot-around-the-globe-scientists-aren-t-sure-what-happens-next/ar-AA1arzla

 

[Lewis]

More and more that this El Niño is going to be huge.

 

 

[Lewis]

Expect weather extremes to be in full swing worldwide as El Niño forms, including the rise of Ocean Temperatures, massive heat from the Oceans will have a huge impact in the Oceans and on Land. Models show Extreme or Super El Nino starting around August/September.

 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

11 May 2023

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

Synopsis:  A transition from ENSO-neutral is expected in the next couple of months, with a greater than 90% chance of El Niño persisting into the Northern Hemisphere winter. During April, above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) expanded slightly westward to the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was +0.4°C, with the easternmost Niño-3 and Niño1+2 regions at +0.8°C and +2.7°C, respectively [Fig. 2]. Area-averaged subsurface temperatures anomalies continued to increase [Fig. 3], reflecting widespread positive temperature anomalies below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were westerly during mid-April before switching back to easterly by the end of the month. Upper-level wind anomalies were westerly across most of the Pacific Ocean. Suppressed convection was observed over parts of Indonesia and anomalies weakened near the Date Line [Fig. 5]. While the warming near coastal South America remains striking, the basin-wide coupled ocean-atmosphere system remained consistent with ENSO-neutral. The most recent IRI plume also indicates El Niño is likely to form during the May-July season and persist into the winter [Fig. 6]. The combination of a forecasted third westerly wind event in mid-late May, and high levels of above-average oceanic heat content, means that a potentially significant El Niño is on the horizon. While at least a weak El Niño is likely, the range of possibilities at the end of the year (November-January) include a 80% chance of at least a moderate El Niño (Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.0°C) to a ~55% chance of a strong El Niño (Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.5°C). It is still possible the tropical atmosphere does not couple with the ocean, and El Niño fails to materialize (5-10% chance). In summary, a transition from ENSO-neutral is expected in the next couple of months, with a greater than 90% chance of El Niño persisting into the Northern Hemisphere winter [Fig. 7]. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 June 2023

[-Chris-]

Interestingly, this article just came up today, making me think of this thread.

 

https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/05/wildfire-smoke-from-australia-fueled-three-year-super-la-nina/?comments=1

 

about this paper:

 

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adg1213

 

Quote

The aerosol fallout from wildfires that burned across more than 70,000 square miles of Australia in 2019 and 2020 was so persistent and widespread that it brightened a vast area of clouds above the subtropical Pacific Ocean.

Beneath those clouds, the ocean surface and the atmosphere cooled, shifting a key tropical rainfall belt northward and nudging the Equatorial Pacific toward an unexpected and long-lasting cool phase of the La Niña-El Niño cycle, according to research published today in Science Advances.

 

[Lewis]

Nino 3.4 index continue to climb up, once it reaches +0.8, El Niño will have arrived. 

Link updates daily.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

[hatcheckgirl]

On 5/12/2023 at 12:05 PM, -Chris- said:

brightened a vast area of clouds above the subtropical Pacific Ocean.

Yes, the sunsets were spectacular, but eerie.

[Lewis]

We are on a straight path up towards El Niño, once the value reaches +0.8, El Niño will have arrived.

 

 

 

[Lewis]

El Niño appears to be imminent as we crossed the +0.8 mark

 

 

 

 

[Friends just call me Ross]

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/el-nino-strong-development-noaa-watch-forecast-seasonal-weather-winter-impact-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

 

Looks like imminent impact...

 

Quote

El Niño is now developing rapidly, with long-range data already showing a strong event is likely, impacting the Fall and Winter Weather patterns

 

With effects never seen before...

Quote

Based on the latest global anomaly data, this El Niño might be something we have never seen before in such an environment.

 

[Lewis]

 

El Niño has officially formed, likely to be strong and warping our weather worldwide, this El Niño will be different than previous ones. Be ready.

Graph below showing how fast it is increasing early on, almost at a +1.0 on the index.

 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

8 June 2023

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

Synopsis:  El Niño conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24. In May, weak El Niño conditions emerged as above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strengthened across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. All of the latest weekly Niño indices were more than +0.5°C: Niño-3.4 was +0.8°C, Niño-3 was +1.1°C, and Niño1+2 was +2.3°C [Fig. 2]. Area-averaged subsurface temperatures anomalies remained positive [Fig. 3], reflecting the continuation of widespread anomalous warmth below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. For the May average, low-level wind anomalies were westerly over the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convection was enhanced along the equator and was suppressed over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Both the equatorial SOI and traditional SOI were significantly negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the emergence of El Niño conditions. The most recent IRI plume indicates the continuation of El Niño through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24 [Fig. 6]. Confidence in the occurrence of El Niño increases into the fall, reflecting the expectation that seasonally averaged Niño-3.4 index values will continue to increase. Another downwelling Kelvin wave is emerging in the western Pacific Ocean, and westerly wind anomalies are forecasted to recur over the western Pacific. At its peak, the chance of a strong El Niño is nearly the same as it was last month (56% chance of November-January Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.5°C), with an 84% chance of exceeding moderate strength (Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.0°C). In summary, El Niño conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24 [Fig. 7]. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 13 July 2023.

[Friends just call me Ross]

https://www.wfla.com/weather/climate-classroom/spike-in-ocean-heat-stuns-scientists-have-we-breached-a-climate-tipping-point/

 

And the records keep being broken:

 

[Loopy]

Yeah, I think it was Ryan Hall that mentioned about the water temperature of the oceans. How the weather for June we are having has never happened before. 
 

Seems a lot of things are increasing in intensity recently.

 

 

 

 

[Lewis]

New El Niño forecast now showing Nino 3.4 passing +3.0 starting around September 2023, The highest reading of any recorded El Niño for Nino 3.4 was +2.6 in 2016. Not good.

 

[Lewis]

1 hour ago, Friends just call me Ross said:

https://www.wfla.com/weather/climate-classroom/spike-in-ocean-heat-stuns-scientists-have-we-breached-a-climate-tipping-point/

 

And the records keep being broken:

 

 

 

Thanks for the link, this heat is having huge effects on marine life now, for example, Marine Sponges are reportedly dying in vast numbers around the world, thousands of sponges turned white and died around New Zealand and the Mediterranean Sea this year. They play a huge role for the Oceans ecosystem.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43705-023-00247-3

 

The North Atlantic Ocean now reached 23.1C just on the 18th and rapidly rising to new records, hate to imagine what next year will look like when El Niño will be worst.

 

[Lewis]

Wow, Ocean temp keep rising. Not normal.

June 18 @ 23.1

June 20 @ 23.2

June 21 @ 23.3

[Lewis]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

13 July 2023

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

Synopsis:  There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter. In June, a weak El Niño was associated with above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. Nearly all of the weekly Niño indices were at or in excess of +1.0°C: Niño-3.4 was +1.0°C, Niño-3 was +1.5°C, and Niño1+2 was +3.3°C [Fig. 2]. Area-averaged subsurface temperatures anomalies increased compared to May [Fig. 3], with positive anomalies below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. In contrast, the tropical atmospheric anomalies were weaker compared to the oceanic anomalies. For the June monthly average, low-level winds were near average over most of the equatorial Pacific. Upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the western Pacific and westerly over the eastern Pacific. Convection and rainfall were enhanced around the International Date Line and were weakly suppressed in the vicinity of Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remained negative (0.5 standard deviations below average), while the traditional, station-based SOI was near zero. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a weak El Niño. The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24 [Fig. 6]. Forecasters favor continued growth of El Niño through the fall, peaking this winter with moderate-to-strong intensity (81% chance of November-January Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.0°C). An event that becomes "historically strong" (seasonally averaged Niño-3.4 ≥ 2.0°C), rivaling the winters of 1997-98 or 2015-16, has an approximately 1 in 5 chance. In summary, there is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter [Fig. 7]. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 10 August 2023.

[daydream]

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/12/europe/italy-heat-wave-record-temperatures-climate-intl/index.html   Wed July 12, 2023

Italy swelters under deadly ‘Cerberus’ heat wave which could break European temperature records

 

A blistering and deadly heat wave in Italy this week could break records, with temperatures predicted to soar past 45 degrees Celsius (113 Fahrenheit) in some parts of the country.

The Italian Meteorological Society has named the heat wave Cerberus after the three-headed monster that features in Dante’s Inferno as a guard to the gates of hell.

[Lewis]

Bureau of Meteorology release an update on status on ENSO today.  

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

 

Still in its early stages and continues to be on El Niño status, they state that the two components that make it a full El Niño has not fully coupled together yet.

 

Forecast on the Indian Ocean Dipole is for a positive IOD in the late winter or early spring.

[Lewis]

El Niño has now crossed the +1.0 on the Nino Index 3.4, getting stronger.

 

[Lewis]

El Niño is gaining momentum, forecasters are 2 in 3 odds of a strong El Niño with temperatures reaching 1.5C as a seasonal average in Nino 3.4.

 

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

10 August 2023

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

Synopsis:  El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than 95% chance through December 2023 -February 2024). In July, El Niño continued as indicated by above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. Nearly all of the weekly Niño indices in the central and eastern Pacific were in excess of +1.0°C: Niño-3.4 was +1.1°C, Niño-3 was +1.8°C, and Niño1+2 was +3.4°C [Fig. 2]. Area-averaged subsurface temperatures anomalies decreased compared to June [Fig. 3], but remained positive, in association with anomalous warmth across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Tropical atmospheric anomalies were also consistent with El Niño. Starting in mid-July, low-level winds were anomalously westerly over the western equatorial Pacific, while anomalous easterlies prevailed over the eastern Pacific. Upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the eastern Pacific. Convection continued to be enhanced around the International Date Line and was weakly suppressed in the vicinity of Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the traditional SOI were both negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected El Niño. The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24 [Fig. 6]. Given recent developments, forecasters are more confident in a "strong" El Niño event, with roughly 2 in 3 odds of an event reaching or exceeding 1.5°C for the November-January seasonal average in Niño-3.4. Note that a strong El Niño does not necessarily equate to strong El Niño impacts locally, with the odds of related climate anomalies often lower than the chances of El Niño itself (e.g., CPC's seasonal outlooks). In summary, El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than 95% chance through December 2023 -February 2024; [Fig. 7]). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 14 September 2023.

[Lewis]

Interesting year so far, but extremes are just beginning.

 

El Niño passing +1.1 on the Nino 3.4 index and continue to gain strength. 

 

 

 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is forecast to be positive by September. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean