Hurricanes

[Lewis]

Invest90E has now transformed into a Tropical Depression in the Eastern Pacific Ocean and the first ever recorded as a Tropical Depression in April since records started back in 1960. 

[Lewis]

Hurricane season is expected to be worst than normal this year.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1203246

https://mashable.com/article/hurricane-season-2020-forecast-prediction.amp

 

In the Atlantic Basin this year, the university of Arizona expects 19 storms and 10 hurricanes, 

Accuweather predicts 14 to 18 storms and 7 to 9 hurricanes

State Penn University predicts 20 storms

 

An average season is about 6 hurricanes and 12 storms

 

https://seasonalhurricanepredictions.bsc.es

 

[Lewis]

[Lewis]

Typhoon VongFong is now a Cat 2 Strength and heading towards the Philippines, its expected to be a Cat 4 (a super typhoon) in the next 24 hours. 

 

https://earther.gizmodo.com/typhoon-vongfong-rapidly-intensifies-as-it-heads-for-th-1843443041

[Lewis]

Tropical Storm Arthur and its projected path.

 

 

[Lewis]

Tropical Cyclone Amphan is becoming a big storm intensifying to a cat 4. Waters are very warm and could grow substantially. https://imgur.com/cX1J7RR

 

 

 

 

[Lewis]

Cyclone Amphan (pronounced um-pun) has sustained winds of 140 kts which ties the record for the Bay of Bengal, thats in the Cat 5 category. It is forecast to track towards eastern India and Bangladesh. 

https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/cyclone.php#

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-05-16-tropical-cyclone-one-amphan-bay-of-bengal-india-bangladesh

 

Extreme strong surge warning for the area.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Lewis]

Tropical Storm Bertha has been officially named and is also the 5th time two named storms were formed before May 27th.

 

[Lewis]

Another Cyclone (Nisarga) headed to India from the Arabian Sea, it is very likely to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm in the next 12 hours.

 

https://www.theweek.in/news/india/2020/06/02/cyclone-nisarga-set-to-intensify-coastal-areas-on-alert.html

[Lewis]

Tropical Storm Cristobal has duly formed in the Gulf of Mexico. It also sets a record for a earliest third named storm in a season.

 

[Lewis]

Laura the 12th named storm and is forecasted to make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border early Thursday morning. As Laura moves across the country, heavy rainfall will occur from the Gulf Coast, to the Mississippi Valley, and east into the Ohio Valley. Flooding and flash flooding is likely. Laura will intensify all the way to the coast and forecast to be a major storm. Be ready by bedtime tonight. Impacts will go far inland. Have supplies for 7 days. If told to evacuate, do it, this is a life threatening storm.

 

 

 

 

Edited August 26, 2020 by Lewis

[Lewis]

Looks like the remnants of Hurricane Laura is forecasted to head into the Central Arctic by next week Thursday. Could cause some damage to the already fragile ice thats left.

 

[Lewis]

Typhoon Maysak looking to hit Korea by Wednesday/Thursday. 

 

 

Edited September 1, 2020 by Lewis

[Lewis]

High activity of storms a possibility in the coming two weeks in the Atlantic.

 

 

[Lewis]

Huge activity forming in the Atlantic Ocean, possibly 4 storms forming at once.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2020/09/08/watching-four-maybe-more-tropical-systems-in-the-atlantic/

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/09/its-the-peak-of-the-atlantic-hurricane-season-and-the-tropics-are-bonkers/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Lewis]

New normal for Atlantic hurricanes show more frequent and intense storms - https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/03/03/hurricanes-atlantic-climate-normal/

 

Every 10 years, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration revises the baseline of what weather and climate conditions are considered “normal.” The most recent normals for Atlantic hurricane activity will soon be released, and a preview reveals a spike in storm frequency and intensity.

 

During the most recent 30-year period, which spans 1991 to 2020, there has been an uptick in the number of named storms and an increase in the frequency of major hurricanes of category 3 intensity or greater in the Atlantic.

 

[Lewis]

Looks to be leaning towards Long Island for landfall. 

 

[Lewis]

So its official, 2021 hurricane season was third most active. The three most active years have occurred in the last 7 years, this puts 2021 behind 2020 and 2015.

 

This year there were 21 named tropical storms including 7 hurricanes and 4 of which were major hurricanes with speeds of 111 mph or greater. All the pre-determined names have been exhausted for the second year in a row.

[Lewis]

Hurricane Idalia looking like a beast, it is sitting in waters of about 30C and when it moves northward it will be in even warmer waters, it has strengthened to more than originally anticipated and looking like this hurricane could intensify even more.

 

Current forecast

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 20.1N  85.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 21.1N  85.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 22.6N  85.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 24.8N  84.8W   85 KT 100 MPH.  (Cat 2)
 48H  30/0600Z 27.7N  84.0W  100 KT 115 MPH.  (Cat 3)
 60H  30/1800Z 30.7N  82.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 72H  31/0600Z 32.8N  79.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  01/0600Z 34.5N  72.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 34.5N  67.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

 

[Qapla]

Personally, I do not like the projected path of this storm ... it is a little too close to home  

 

 

[Lewis]

Are you in Jacksonville? I saw a list of 28 county’s under evacuation order.

 

Evacuations in at least 28 counties: Alachua, Baker, Citrus, Dixie, Franklin, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hernando, Hillsborough, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Levy, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Nassau, Pasco, Pinellas, Putnam, Sarasota, Suwannee, Sumter, Taylor, Union, Volusia and Wakulla have all issued evacuation orders

[Loopy]

Watching Ryan Hall’s live weather video it looks so frightening. Areas of extreme flooding. He stated that it’s going to take years for some places to recover.

 

Also, some crazy people have been swimming in those dangerous storm surge waters. Common sense has seriously been replaced by extreme stupidity.

 

They are now warning people in Georgia to get ready as it’s coming their way. 
 

Just announced high winds hitting portion of Georgia already. 

[Qapla]

14 hours ago, Lewis said:

Are you in Jacksonville?

 

No, I am near Gainesville. Earlier projections had Idalia going right over where we live but, the hurricane took a more northern path and seems to have missed us. So far, we have only had a few power blips and no wind damage. Unless the storm changes direction and heads more due east, it looks like Jacksonville will escape severe damage.

 

Looks like the worst of the flooding, so far, has been in Cedar Key where the whole community is under 7' of storm surge. There is not a KH in Cedar Key - but there is one in Chiefland (they work that territory) and there has been some wind and storm damage in that area. I haven't heard of any damage to the Chiefland KH. My married daughter was in that congregation before they moved to Michigan.

 

There has been substantial wind damage between where Idalia came ashore and Valdosta, Ga. Some really large and old Oak trees have sustained wind damage and nearly 1/4 million are without power in Fl. In the path of the storm there has also been several cell phone towers damaged or destroyed and cell coverage is not all that good.

 

There are several KH's in the path of the storm and I have worked on many of them in the past - from initial building to minor and major remodeling. The KH's in Perry and Madison, Fl are right in the path the eye went over.

 

 

[Lewis]

Hurricane Beryl is now a category 5 and broke the record for earliest category 4&5. Sea surface temperatures are running record levels that are usually seen in August/September.

 

 

https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1807468546751881502

[Lewis]

A new disturbance is in the works in the same spot where Helene started. Could become Hurricane in a week or so. Gulf of Mexico is very warm right now too.

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7