La Cumbre Vieja Volcano in the Canary Islands

[Friends just call me Ross]

I have been getting a steady stream of reports on my Volcanoes & Earthquakes app

stating that earthquake swarms are occurring at shallow depths under the Combre Vieja volcano

on La Palma, an island in the Canary Island chain, off the western coast of Africa.

 

Quote

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/la-palma/news/141368/La-Palma-volcano-Canary-Islands-likelihood-of-new-volcanic-eruption-increases.html

 

 

The volcanic-seismic crisis continues to evolve. During the past 24 hours, earthquakes have been moving westwards and become shallower, the National Geographic Institute(IGN) reported. 
This is likely reflecting continued magma intrusion and migration under the surface, supported also by continued deformation of the surface in the same area as the quakes. In places, the ground has been uplifted by 1.5 cm (almost one inch) already. The likelihood of an eruption has thus increased and the situation is being followed closely, although it is still far from certain whether it will or not result in a new eruption of the volcano.

More than 2000 earthquakes in 4 days
Since the beginning of the seismic series at 3:18 (UTC) on Sep 11th until 8:00 a.m. local time today, 2935 earthquakes have been detected in the southern area of the island of La Palma. Of these, 616 were large enough to have their epicenters and depths located. The largest quake occurred today at 06:00 a.m. with a provisional magnitude of 3.9. Anomalies in the seismic attenuation that currently exist under the island of La Palma caused the magnitude to have been overestimated, IGN reported, and revised the magnitude to only 3.5. At any rate, the larger quakes are now being frequently felt and reported by residents who are increasingly worried about the situation under their feet.

 

Today, I was informed that the eruption alert level was raised to yellow.

 

There are dozens of volcanoes erupting earth wide EVERY DAY, and I don't usually get alerts for them.

 

This made me wonder what was so special about this particular volcano that it would warrant my app sending me daily reports.

 

So I Googled it, and this is what I found:  

Quote

 

 

Cumbre Vieja Volcano -- Potential collapse and tsunami at La Palma, Canary Islands

https://websites.pmc.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/La_Palma_grl.pdf

 

Steven N. Ward

Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Santa Cruz California, USA

 

Simon Day
Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre, Department of Geological Sciences, University College, London, UK

 

Canary Island chain off the western coast of Africa. 

La Palma Island, home to Cumbre Vieja volcano.

 

As evidenced by the abundant landslide deposits strewn about their bases, the Canary Island volcanoes have experienced at least a dozen major collapses in the past several million years.

 

Abstract. Geological evidence suggests that during a future eruption, Cumbre Vieja Volcano on the Island of La Palma may experience a catastrophic failure of its west flank, dropping 150 to 500 km3 of rock into the sea. Using a geologically reasonable estimate of landslide motion, we model tsunami waves produced by such a collapse. Waves generated by the run-out of a 500 km3 (150 km3) slide block at 100 m/s could transit the entire Atlantic Basin and arrive on the coasts of the Americas with 10-25 m (3-8 m) height.

Now I know what is so special about La Combre Vieja volcano on La Palma Island off the western coast of Africa. 

[Friends just call me Ross]

Quote

https://www.pilotonline.com/news/article_f64a498f-e2bc-5a75-bdb3-9ad0fb9c5da0.html

A theory of a "mega-tsunami" that wipes out the East Coast was widely debunked. Yet it persists.

 

"One of the things we struggle with with natural disasters is that these are rare events that don't happen very often. But when they do, they are serious disasters."

 

Some in the scientific community put more stock in the possibility than others, like Steve Ward of the University of California at Santa Cruz and Simon Day, who formally worked there. In analysis papers written in 2001 and 2005, they said the BBC scenario was "highly possible."

Others downplay it but maintain just a touch of caution, like Larry Atkinson, an oceanography professor at Old Dominion University.

 

"There is some geological evidence that it could happen," Atkinson said, pointing to rocks that seem to indicate a landslide at the Fogo volcano in the Cape Verde Islands off west Africa 73,000 years ago.

 

"But a lot of things 'could happen.' Asteroids fly by all the time, too."

 

The Fogo eruption was detailed in a paper written by Ricardo Ramalho, a research fellow at the University of Bristol in England. He wrote that 700-ton boulders high in the hills of an island about 35 miles away arrived there after an eruption caused a tsunami some 73,000 years ago.

 

In his report, Ramalho said events like that "don't happen very often. But we need to take this into account when we think about the hazard potential of these kinds of volcanic features."

 

The USGS report said while some predictions say La Palma would cause waves "hundreds of meters" high, those waves likely would be closer to 10 meters.

Still, that would cause plenty of damage to the East Coast.

 

The good news in that report is that any tsunami action caused by a La Palma landslide would take between five and six hours to reach the U.S. coast. The U.S. Tsunami Warning Center would immediately start monitoring its system of buoys and would send out alerts – potentially giving residents enough time to head to higher ground a couple of hours to the west.

 

"Most researchers would say the chances of an event like the BBC scenario are very low," Brink said. "There have been lots of papers written on this subject, and all of the proper modeling show waves being drastically lower.

 

"An awful lot of energy would be lost by the time a tsunami got to the United States."

Apparently, the danger of the above scenario happening has been relegated to possible but not probable.  

[Friends just call me Ross]

I'm guessing that this is the BBC theory that is being downplayed...

 

 

 

The above video certainly qualifies as 'fear mongering' in my books. 

 

 

[Tortuga]

2 hours ago, Friends just call me Ross said:

have been getting a steady stream of reports on my Volcanoes & Earthquakes app

stating that earthquake swarms are occurring at shallow depths under the Combre Vieja volcano

on La Palma, an island in the Canary Island chain, off the western coast of Africa.

I was wondering if you were using Twitter and had received a tweet from the Canary Islands...

[SUNRAY]

I always check that island in the Volcano app and noticed the earthquakes and yellow volcano a few days ago. We live in Florida..not much higher ground here. 😐

[carlos]

La Palma is an absolutely beautiful island. The Canary islands are in Africa but they are part of Spain.

 

That same volcano had an eruption in 1971 that added a good size of land to the island (good-for-nothing land, on the other hand). When we visited that area, if you tried to dig in the ground with your hands you couldn't get deeper than a few centimeters because it was too hot.

 

[SUNRAY]

It doesn't look good!😐

[SUNRAY]

Latest update..😐

[SUNRAY]

The Volcano is erupting now!😐

[SUNRAY]

Spectacular video!

 

Volcanic eruption on  La Palma

 

https://youtu.be/CmQVquojJfo

[Friends just call me Ross]

Monday, September 20th update:

 

[hatcheckgirl]

 

[SUNRAY]

Just updated..new fissure..3.8 earthquake.😯

[Friends just call me Ross]

Tuesday's volcano update:

 

[Friends just call me Ross]

So sad.  

 

 

[Friends just call me Ross]

Update for Wednesday, September 22nd:

 

[carlos]

We were told today at the meeting that four JW families are among  evacuated due to this eruption. They are being accommodated by the friends. Their houses are in the affected area but they still don't know if they have been destroyed by the lava or not.

 

So far no one has been hurt or killed because the whole area was quickly evacuated and the lava flow moves very slowly. The 10-meter high lava river is going through a small town and nearly 200 houses have been swept so far. The neighbors were evacuated but were later allowed to go back and rescue everything they could before their houses were swallowed by the molten rock river.

 

It's impressive how man, with all his technology, is completely helpless in the face of a lava flow. Nothing stops it: Neither houses, nor stone walls, nor concrete blocks. At some points the army is digging trenches hoping to redirect the flow and save some houses, but they are not very confident it will have any effect. They said different methods were tried at other eruptions, such as cooling the lava with water, building concrete walls or even bombing the lava flow, to no avail.

 

 

[SUNRAY]

Latest information..

[SUNRAY]

Further update..praying for friends downwind...

[Friends just call me Ross]

Update for Thursday, September 23rd

 

Quote

The eruption has been becoming "ashier"; today, the plume has been reaching 4000 m and is visible from much of the island.

Deformation data show inflation overall is continuing although the trend has slowed down, or even decreased temporarily yesterday. 

 

Volcanic tremor remains high, but has been showing a slight decrease compared to the past days.

This suggests that the eruption might be becoming more stable, although it cannot be ruled out that new fissures open and new lava flows might appear.

 

[Friends just call me Ross]

Photo of the volcano and the full moon:

 

[carlos]

This picture is all over the news:

 

This house was surrounded but pardoned by the lava river. Its owners, a Danish couple who use to spend their vacation in La Palma, haven't lost their house, but they have no way to get to it.

[Friends just call me Ross]

Here's hoping they know somebody with a helicopter. 

[Loopy]

5 minutes ago, Friends just call me Ross said:

Here's hoping they know somebody with a helicopter. 

I was thinking the same thing. 

[Dages]

8 hours ago, carlos said:

This picture is all over the news:

 

This house was surrounded but pardoned by the lava river. Its owners, a Danish couple who use to spend their vacation in La Palma, haven't lost their house, but they have no way to get to it.

Are they JWs?