Explanations for China's Loss of 21 Million Cell Phones

[Friends just call me Ross]

I hadn't heard about this '21 Million Fewer Cell Phones in China' thing,

so I decided to investigate it.  I Googled close to a dozen different sources/articles

on this subject and below are snippets that bring out the various reasons that were given

for this sudden dramatic drop in cell phones in China:

Quote

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-23/china-s-mobile-carriers-lose-15-million-users-as-virus-bites

 

China’s Mobile Carriers Lose 21 Million Users as Virus Bites
By Shirley Zhao
March 23, 2020

 

Part of the drop could be caused by migrant workers -- who often have one subscription for where they work and another for their home region -- canceling their work-region account after the virus prevented them from returning to work after the Lunar New Year holidays that began in late January, said Chris Lane, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.

While the drop in users is unusual, the total is small relative to total wireless subscriptions which have risen to a combined 1.6 billion for the three carriers.

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https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/03/24/21-million-chinese-cellphone-users-disappear-in-three-months-of-pandemic/

 

21 Million Chinese Cellphone Users Disappear in Three Months of Pandemic

by JOHN HAYWARD  24 Mar 2020

 

The opacity of the Chinese Communist government obliges responsible outside observers to look for clues to the truth of the coronavirus epidemic, instead of merely repeating official information without question.

 

The official count from China is 3,277 fatalities from 81,171 infections as of Tuesday, but the Epoch Times noted the troubling disappearance of some 21 million cell phone accounts in China over the past three months – an unprecedented decline that hints at more fatalities than Beijing is prepared to admit.

 

China claims it has no second wave and all of its new coronavirus cases are imported.

With that in mind, the Epoch Times thought it was a bit odd for 21 million Chinese cell phones to abruptly disappear, given that cell phone usage has been increasing constantly in China for years, and phones have been touted as an important tool for containing the coronavirus epidemic:

China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) announced on March 19 the number of phone users in each province in February. Compared with the previous announcement, which was released on Dec. 18, 2019, for November 2019 data, both cellphone and landline users dropped dramatically. In the same period the year before, the number of users increased.

 

The number of cellphone users decreased from 1.600957 billion to 1.579927 billion, a drop of 21.03 million. The number of landline users decreased from 190.83 million to 189.99 million, a drop of 840,000.

In the previous February, the number increased. According to MIIT, the number of cellphone users increased in February 2019 from 1.5591 billion to 1.5835 billion, which is 24.37 million more. The number of landline users increased from 183.477 million to 190.118 million, which is 6.641 million more.

 

According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, the country’s population at the end of 2019 was 4.67 million larger than in 2018, reaching 1.40005 billion.

 

A correspondent writing for Bloomberg News on March 18 reported using the system and said it was in the process of being “rolled out nationwide at railway stations, restaurants, pharmacies, and more.” Other reports in China have noted how cell phones are ubiquitous there and are employed for everything from accessing public and commercial resources to telecommuting to school during the coronavirus lockdown.

 

With this in mind, it might not be completely impossible to get by in Chinese cities without a cell phone at the moment, but it seems unlikely that a huge number of citizens would choose this moment to get rid of their phones.

 

“Lacking data, the real death toll in China is a mystery. The cancellation of 21 million cellphones provides a data point that suggests the real number may be far higher than the official number,” the Epoch Times concluded.

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https://www.theepochtimes.com/the-closing-of-21-million-cell-phone-accounts-in-china-may-suggest-a-high-ccp-virus-death-toll_3281291.html

 

21 Million Fewer Cellphone Users in China May Suggest a High CCP Virus Death Toll
BY NICOLE HAO    March 22, 2020 Updated: March 26, 2020

 

The economic dislocation caused by shutdowns in China may have also led some people who have an extra cellphone to cancel it. With business poor or stopped, they may not want to carry the extra expense.

 

“At present, we don’t know the details of the data. If only 10 percent of the cellphone accounts were closed because the users died because of the CCP virus, the death toll would be 2 million,” Tang said.

 

On March 25, a high official within MIIT, Han Xia, addressed the data point at a daily press conference.

He claimed that the drop in cell phone accounts was partly due to businesses shutting down in February to comply with quarantine policies. These businesses closed their spare phone accounts when their operations were halted, he said.

 

In addition, because telecom companies also closed down their physical stores during country-wide lockdowns, people were not able to open new accounts, Han said.

The reported death toll in China doesn’t line up with what can otherwise be determined about the situation there.

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https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/can-chinas-covid-19-statistics-be-trusted/

 

Can China’s COVID-19 Statistics Be Trusted?
From GDP figures to coronavirus counts, China’s government has a long history of manipulating data for political gain.
By Scott N. Romaniuk and Tobias Burgers
March 26, 2020

 

As the number of COVID-19 cases rises in countries around the world, China continues to report a reduction in cases, with hundreds of patients “cured” and discharged from hospitals daily, according to information disseminated by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Leading Chinese epidemiologist Zhong Nanshan, who discussed the potential for a second wave of the virus, highlighted the success of the “intervention mechanism invented by China.” According to Zhong, “The core points are the ‘four earlys:’ early prevention, early detection, early diagnosis, and early quarantine.”

 

The number of new cases reportedly dropped below 100 on March 6 and has consistently decreased. China also conveyed data indicating that the country had seen zero new local cases over the course of several days, saying all new cases were imported from abroad. China’s total active cases dropped approximately 91 percent from February 17 to March 22. While statistics show that China has done much to contain COVID-19, the data are prepared by Chinese Communist Party officials. Are these figures reliable? If not, what do they say about COVID-19 in China?

When SARS infections were initially detected, China under Jiang Zemin endeavored to conceal the outbreak’s severity until the efforts to do so were derailed by one of China’s leading doctors. A similar pattern unfolded with COVID-19. Having responded to the emergence of the as-yet unnamed disease on January 7, Xi’s first public statement did not follow for another two weeks, when on January 20, he underscored need to take the outbreak seriously.

 

China’s COVID-19 infection numbers are likely much higher than previously stated based on pictures, videos, and leaked documents indicating a much different picture. For example, a considerable drop in mobile phone usage in China is telling of a possible difference in official Chinese statistics of COVID-19 infections and deaths, and those who have actually contracted the virus. One might reasonably expect to see an increase in mobile phone and landline usage by citizens, especially in times of quarantine and lockdown, not a decrease. Yet in China mobile phone and landline usage decreased by over 21 million and 840,000 users, respectively. Meanwhile, the mortality rate in Italy (approximately 9 percent) suggests that the numbers (not including asymptomatic cases) in China are seriously misrepresented.

 

While China has made enormous gains in combating the virus, and seems to have managed to flatten the curve, the world should not automatically embrace the new numbers coming from the country. With a cautious note about China’s statistical unreliability in mind, we should continue to closely observe the country’s health situation and remain watchful of future developments.

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https://www.outlookindia.com/newsscroll/coronavirus-casualties-may-be-higher-in-china-than-reported/1776949

 

23 MARCH 2020  Last Updated at 1:36 PM | SOURCE: IANS
''Coronavirus casualties may be higher in China than reported''

 

New Delhi/Washington, March 23 (IANS) The number of casualties in China due to the novel coronavirus pandemic may be way higher than the official figure that the Chinese Communist Party regime has released.

 

The Xi Jinping government which controls all the news and information, claims that 3,270 people have died and 81,093 infected in China due to COVID-19, which originated in Wuhan city of Hubei province. However, several Chinese civilians have leaked out videos and documents disputing these numbers, with many pointing to the drop in cellphone users by 21 million in the last three months.

 

A US-based independent news media run by American Chinese, The Epoch Times, in a detailed report described how cellphones are an indispensable part of life in China due very high level of digitization in every sphere of life controlled by the government.

 

On December 1, 2019, China made facial scans to confirm the identity of the person who registered the phone mandatory. The newspaper quoted the operation data of all three Chinese cellphone carriers, which showed that cellphone accounts increased in December 2019 but dropped steeply since the outbreak of novel coronavirus.

China Mobile, the largest carrier in the country, holding about 60 percent of the Chinese cellphone market, gained 3.732 million more accounts in December 2019 after the facial scan requirement, but lost 0.862 million in January 2020 and 7.254 million in February 2020.

 

Similarly, China Telecom, the second-largest carrier, holding about 21 percent of the market, gained 1.18 million users in December 2019, but lost 0.43 million users in January and 5.6 million users in February.

If only 10 per cent of the cellphone accounts were closed due to coronavirus deaths, the death toll would be 2 million, the newspaper said.

 

A comparison with the situation in Italy also suggests the Chinese death toll is significantly underreported. The mortality rate in Italy so far has been nine per cent while in China where a much larger population was exposed to the virus, it is only 4 per cent.

 

Activities in Hubei province, the epicenter of the novel coronavirus seem to contradict the reported death toll in China. The seven funeral homes in the city of Wuhan were reported to be burning bodies 24 hours a day, seven days a week in late January. Hubei Province has used 40 mobile crematoria, each capable of burning five tons of medical waste and bodies a day, since February 16.

 

"The Chinese Communist Party''s cover-up and mismanagement allowed the virus to spread throughout China and create a global pandemic," the Epoch Times wrote.

--IANS

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https://www.quora.com/What-is-your-opinion-on-the-missing-21-million-cellphone-users-in-China

 

What is your opinion on the missing 21 million cellphone users in China?

Mu Chen, PhD Candidate Computer Science, ZhiHu University (2021)
Answered Mar 24, 2020

 

Indeed, this is the consequence of the corona virus in some ways, but the users are not dead.

 

Well, if I want to explain this, I should show a phenomena to you first.

 

If you have been to China, I believe you must have seen this ‘tent’. 

Do you know what these tents are for? Are this people stand here and drinking tea? haha.. Actually They are selling mobile cards. China has three main telecom providers, they need to constantly develop customers due to competition. Some of there telecom plans are really cost-effective to our users in the first year. But not suitable for users at the second year. As a result, almost everyone in China has two or more phone numbers which covers multiple providers. For some phone cards, we just use it for the first year, and it will logout at the second year after we are sold a new account in the place like this ‘tent’. So the providers must develop customers every day, so as to maintain a stable number of customers.

 

Back to the question, what the relation between the above phenomena and the corona virus? Actually it is obviously. We all know that China has locked down since Feb 2020. So the providers cannot develop new customers since last month. But the existing users still logout since their ‘one year contract’ have expired. The number of logout users is much larger than the number of login users. So we have missed 21 million cellphone.

 

You see, the missing users are indeed related to the virus, but they are not dead

 

P.S. Actually, this is not the only reason for the missing users. Some reasons like the modified KPI index or mobile number portability are more important. However, forgive my poor English, I really cannot express such complex policy!

As usual, the truth is probably mixed into some of each of the above explanations

and we will have to pick and choose for ourselves which explanations to believe...or disbelieve. 

[sunshine]

Thank you for your research.  Although the official line is plausible to an extent, I shouldnt think giving up your business line can account for 21 million less phones.  

Edited March 30, 2020 by sunshine

[BenJepthah]

Wow I hadn’t read about this. A disturbing statistic indeed.

[Vasilis]

 

 

There is an explanation about the number. Chris Chappel explains it on this video. Yes China is propably lying about the real numbers but no 21 million people did not die.

[Qapla]

Maybe people in China are very forgetful or clumbsy .... I mean, if they "lost" 21 million cell phones