Is it time to risk investing in crypto?

[computerwiz]

DISCLAIMER: All info below is to be considered "entertainment purposes only".  I'm not a financial advisor.  This is not financial advice.  Everyone must consider his/her own risk tolerance and be reasonable with investing.

 

Howdy all!

 

For those looking to get into investing, I feel like now is the best time to be getting into crypto.  I already begun re-investing back in July 2022, and while that was not the "precise" bottom for crypto, it was very close.  Right now, I believe everyone is being given a 2nd chance at getting in at a very good position.  And recent events make me feel solidified in that belief.  This is gonna be a long post, but it will help explain why I feel now is the time to invest (in crypto...specifically)!

 

We need to examine the situation from 2 points: 1. The usual track of crypto and 2. The macro-economics that are influencing it.

 

1. The usual track of crypto.  Crypto goes in cycles, and those cycles are very predictable.  Wish I knew them sooner, but knowing them I was able to catch the last bull run.  Here's some charts:

 

 

 

The chart below is a combination of several different indicators (shown as percentages at the top).  As you can see from the solid blue line, when it peaks, we are at the top of the market.  When it hits the bottom, crypto is also at the bottom.  The rainbow-colored dots are Bitcoin's price.

 

 

 

Then you have historical patterns based on the MACD and RSI on charts.  Here's how the past has played out and then a comparison of now.

 

 

 

 

 

So based on the above, it looks like November is going to be a great month for crypto!  That means now is the time to be buying!  And that coincides with the cycle chart (1st image).  Not only that....check this out:

 

https://medium.datadriveninvestor.com/the-biggest-change-to-our-financial-system-in-50-years-is-happening-in-november-e976918c6118

 

^^^  And crypto is involved in that "big change"

 

 

 

So now we need point #2: what about the macro-economic situation?  Well...here's what I've gotten collected:

 

1. You have BlackRock with $10 Trillion in assets partnering with CoinBase.  What does that tell you?
2. Commodity prices are finally starting to fall (which will help reduce inflation).
3. Inflation is finally looking like it has peaked and perhaps with the next reading, it will start to fall.
4. Pending any new black swan events (China invading Taiwan, Russia using nukes) the market is used to all the bad news and is not reacting as much (see next images)
5. Lots of good news & institutional progress with crypto:
   1. https://coingape.com/bitcoin-price-bullish-microstrategy-files-sec-to-buy-btc/
   2. https://beincrypto.com/polygon-to-increase-workforce-by-40-percent/
   3. https://zycrypto.com/new-highs-seem-imminent-for-xrp-price-as-ripple-fosters-massive-adoption-push-in-asia/
   4. https://cointelegraph.com/news/3-bitcoin-price-metrics-suggest-today-s-10-pump-marked-the-final-cycle-bottom
   5. https://watcher.guru/news/nasdaq-to-launch-crypto-custody-services
   6. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-bottoming-process-lead-160633058.html

 

 

Here's Bitcoin's reaction to CPI readings (yellow lines).  Notice how it really doesn't react much anymore.  Way different than April, May, and June!!

 

 

And the red line at the bottom?  If I zoomed out and extended it, you'd see that BTC has NEVER gone under that line.  Well...look how close we are to it.

 

 

So why am I posting all of this?  Because we have some exciting times ahead of us!  Either we're about to enter the Great Tribulation, or we're about to have a huge boom from crypto.  If we are about to see the breakout of the GT, then all our money will be thrown in the streets and what happens to the markets won't matter one bit.  But if it's not time for that, then you'll want to put some money into crypto (with at least 50% into BTC, then diversify into other coins) so you can catch the next bull run, which is probably be the biggest!  There is so much institutional interest pouring into it, it's gonna be big!

 

 

 

All that being said....BE SMART!  Don't invest any money in that you can't afford to lose.  Don't mortgage your house!  Don't go into any debt for investing!  And as always, DYOR (Do Your Own Research).

 

And remember, all of this is just for "educational purposes"...  

 

[Dages]

I'd not touch cryptos with a 10 feet pole right now.

We are at the GT door.

[Tortuga]

1 hour ago, computerwiz said:

All that being said....BE SMART!

Well, that leaves me out!

[computerwiz]

10 minutes ago, Tortuga said:

Well, that leaves me out!

At least you admit it!   

[Dustparticle]

2 hours ago, Dages said:

I'd not touch cryptos with a 10 feet pole right now.

We are at the GT door.

Like  bitcoin, cryptos can be a scam. Invest into chocolate. You cannot go wrong on this.

[bobby]

well ill pass, being on SSDI you have to report all investments and the wait to get penalized 

by the GOV. they all ready consider me Rich and  penalize me all ready no need any more  penalizing thank you 

[AndreaC]

Crypto can be a good investment, and I don't judge who is investing in that sector.
However, given their high volatility, they also genuinely generate anxiety and stomach pain, and since they can vary by tens of percentage points over the course of a day, it risks to keep you hooked on the chart for hours and hours a day 😅
Can I really do 2-3 hours of carefree preaching that way? Or I will go preaching checking every 15 minutes the graph on the phone?
This is to be taken into account if one is to engage in these investments.

But as mentioned, we are not all the same and there are certainly also those who manage to invest in crypto without getting emotionally caught 😁

[computerwiz]

2 hours ago, AndreaC said:

Crypto can be a good investment, and I don't judge who is investing in that sector.
However, given their high volatility, they also genuinely generate anxiety and stomach pain, and since they can vary by tens of percentage points over the course of a day, it risks to keep you hooked on the chart for hours and hours a day 😅
Can I really do 2-3 hours of carefree preaching that way? Or I will go preaching checking every 15 minutes the graph on the phone?
This is to be taken into account if one is to engage in these investments.

But as mentioned, we are not all the same and there are certainly also those who manage to invest in crypto without getting emotionally caught 😁

Which is why my next post, if someone was interested, was to introduce y'all to Pionex....where you can build bots.

 

Super easy...just tell it the range of the coin (like $10,000 to $250,000 for Bitcoin) and how much trading you want it to do (grids) and set the grid type to "Geometric" and then give the bot some money to use.  Then let it do all the work for you! It will buy & sell as the price moves. 

 

Crypto has some cool stuff like that, which you'll never find in the stock market. And one day regulations might shut that down. So I'm using it while I can. 

 

If anyone wants to try Pionex, lemme know. I have referrals. 

[Old]

10 hours ago, computerwiz said:

Which is why my next post, if someone was interested, was to introduce y'all to Pionex....where you can build bots.

 

Super easy...just tell it the range of the coin (like $10,000 to $250,000 for Bitcoin) and how much trading you want it to do (grids) and set the grid type to "Geometric" and then give the bot some money to use.  Then let it do all the work for you! It will buy & sell as the price moves. 

 

Crypto has some cool stuff like that, which you'll never find in the stock market. And one day regulations might shut that down. So I'm using it while I can. 

 

If anyone wants to try Pionex, lemme know. I have referrals. 

 

This should under the financial advice topic.

 

What? we don't have one, I wonder why.  

[M.J.]

On 9/27/2022 at 12:34 PM, computerwiz said:

or we're about to have a huge boom from crypto

Well finally!...I can get all my money back! Was forced to hold all this time...but hoping patience pays off....I should have listened when you warned me of the crypto winter....it was horrible...the only thing I did right was not invest in bonds, as the normal safe haven tanked this time. 

[M.J.]

7 minutes ago, Old said:

This should under the financial advice topic.

What? we don't have one, I wonder why.  

I actually wanted to form a club about finances, but no one seemed interested...but I do think this would be a good club topic in private mode. @computerwiz hint hint 🙂

Edited September 29, 2022 by M.J.

[Precision]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/green-gold-mexican-avocados-beloved-us-fuel-multi-billion-dollar-market-2022-09-28/

 

Invest in Green Gold...and by the end of the week have nothing to show for it.

 

[computerwiz]

2 hours ago, M.J. said:

Well finally!...I can get all my money back! Was forced to hold all this time...but hoping patience pays off....I should have listened when you warned me of the crypto winter....it was horrible...the only thing I did right was not invest in bonds, as the normal safe haven tanked this time. 

Lol well you got to experience what I experienced in 2018.  Learned way more about crypto and how it behaves since then, as you can see. 

 

You weren't the only one who didn't listen to me. And now I'm having the same pushback as I say "it's time to buy". Of course I could be wrong, but even so, the upside potential far outweighs the downside potential. 50% down from here pales in comparison with at least 400% upside, but I'm expecting 1000% with the next bull run.

 

And that's just Bitcoin! Other coins have a potential 20x. There's one in particular that may 300x....but that one I'd only put a small amount of money in...because the potential for it to fail is high. It has potential because it WANTS to be fully regulated and even have KYC at the Blockchain level! So maybe banks/gov will love it. But that goes against the narrative of what crypto is all about. So I think it's a toss up...

 

BTW - Expected timeframe for max gains in crypto is 2-3 years. 

[computerwiz]

3 hours ago, Old said:

 

This should under the financial advice topic.

 

What? we don't have one, I wonder why.  

Lol most JWs can't afford to mess with this. And then of those that can, probably most shouldn't .

 

Just trying to be helpful where I can, if I can. 

[M.J.]

On 9/27/2022 at 12:34 PM, computerwiz said:

charts

Love these charts, great explanation, so clear what's coming in Crypto....just common sense it had to go back up eventually...

On 9/27/2022 at 12:34 PM, computerwiz said:

So based on the above, it looks like November is going to be a great month for crypto!  That means now is the time to be buying!

I'm holding my breath for the first days of October...historically significant in Bible prophecy...so it's a very volatile time....you never know...

If they are saying November....I wouldn't be surprised it happens in October just to trip people up and get them motivated...FOMO

Everything I see now, is in relation to how it will fit within GT timeframe....finances included...

On 9/27/2022 at 12:34 PM, computerwiz said:

Not only that....check this out:

https://medium.datadriveninvestor.com/the-biggest-change-to-our-financial-system-in-50-years-is-happening-in-november-e976918c6118

^^^  And crypto is involved in that "big change"

Loved the article, loved the chart - extremely helpful. Now I'm already convinced what two I like 🙂and I have concrete reasons based on chart.

On the other hand, XLM/Stellar intrigues me because it is actually related to the UN...and if UN is going to be in power....your thoughts?

 

On 9/27/2022 at 12:34 PM, computerwiz said:

So now we need point #2: what about the macro-economic situation?  Well...here's what I've gotten collected:

1. You have BlackRock with $10 Trillion in assets partnering with CoinBase.  What does that tell you? That I should buy more COIN?
2. Commodity prices are finally starting to fall (which will help reduce inflation).  They are falling because everyone is going cash
3. Inflation is finally looking like it has peaked and perhaps with the next reading, it will start to fall. hmmm, not according to Roubini - global recession throughout all of 2023  (trouble pasting link)
4. Pending any new black swan events (China invading Taiwan, Russia using nukes) the market is used to all the bad news and is not reacting as much (see next images) I'm actually thinking...what if Russia issue gets resolved, Putin gets taken down, and then P&S... everything unexpectedly goes very well?...supply opens back up, etc., etc.?? How would that play out?...

 

Edited October 1, 2022 by M.J.

[M.J.]

On 9/27/2022 at 12:34 PM, computerwiz said:

with at least 50% into BTC

😕But what about the ecology issue? Energy consumption?  

 

And don't you think ETH and ADA will be more competitive this time around? And give BTC a run for it's money?

Edited October 1, 2022 by M.J.

[computerwiz]

12 hours ago, M.J. said:

I'm holding my breath for the first days of October...historically significant in Bible prophecy...so it's a very volatile time....you never know...

If they are saying November....I wouldn't be surprised it happens in October just to trip people up and get them motivated...FOMO

Everything I see now, is in relation to how it will fit within GT timeframe....finances included...

It's quite possible things take off in October...as those that are "in the know" will try to front-run the actual "time to shine".  But as I said, I was already buying back on July 1st, and I've been buying again last month (September).  So when it actually takes off doesn't matter to me.  All I know for sure is this is the time to be buying.

 

Macro-economics could delay it even further.  Wouldn't surprise me if the bull market (for crypto) didn't return until March.  But again, even if that's the case, now is still a safe time to be buying.

 

Not to sure how much relation to Bible events actually impacts the markets.  In my discord, someone brought up the Shmita year having a huge impact to markets every 7 years.  And it seems to be correct.  Though if things pan out as I expect, then crypto's best time to buy was back on June 18th.

 

We'll see what October brings, but on the Monthly timeframe, we have our first pink candle on the MACD!!!    So I expect crypto to be basically up from here, with small dips on any bad news.

 

12 hours ago, M.J. said:

XLM/Stellar intrigues me because it is actually related to the UN...and if UN is going to be in power....your thoughts?

Stellar is ancient history.  An old coin that got left in the dust.  It would surprise me if it actually did well.  When the UN gets any kind of meaningful power, crypto will be the last of our concerns.  It will be "showtime"!  

 

12 hours ago, M.J. said:

But what about the ecology issue? Energy consumption?

It's just a narrative being pushed.  There are so many variables at play...the US has to be careful about banning/restricting crypto too much.  Otherwise they risk getting left behind by other countries that embrace it.  If you actually dig into the statistics & science, Bitcoin is not using that much energy.  It's on the same level as blaming cow farts for climate change...  

 

That's not to say government can't be irrational.  But I'm not worried about it for the next bull run.  Afterwards...we'll see.

 

Now...50% of your portfolio in BTC is what I recommend to newcomers.  For me, it's only 10% of my portfolio, and I have 30+ different coins...  

 

12 hours ago, M.J. said:

And don't you think ETH and ADA will be more competitive this time around? And give BTC a run for it's money?

Yes, ETH will absolutely be more competitive.  And seeing the major accomplishment with the merge, they have more credibility that they can make significant strides & improvements.  ETH is definitely one to have in your portfolio.  HOWEVER, being PoS, it is more easily manipulated now.  If any one entity bought 51% of the coins, they'd have control over the network.  Now that would take a ton of money, of course.  But when you have someone like BlackRock with $10 trillion in assets, that becomes a real concern.  So we'll see how it goes.  Not too worried though...but keep eyes and ears open.

 

ADA is junk.  You're much better off with MATIC.  Even some AVAX & JOE.

 

Now, when I say that, I mean if hoping to make a good return, you're better off with alternatives.  That's not to say ADA doesn't have it's place.  I've used it many times to send money between exchanges for much cheaper than other chains.  And then I immediately sold for a coin with better potential returns.  I think ADA could be a safe investment, but not one that will get you the best gains.  Personally, I rather BTC or ETH as my "safe" plays, and then the rest are coins with higher potential gains.

Edited October 1, 2022 by computerwiz

[M.J.]

6 hours ago, computerwiz said:

There are so many variables at play...the US has to be careful about banning/restricting crypto too much.  Otherwise they risk getting left behind by other countries that embrace it.  If you actually dig into the statistics & science, Bitcoin is not using that much energy.

Hmmm...I'm not convinced...but you've studied it and I don't have the time to research it more than I what I've already read.

But regardless, when did concern for the environment ever stop people from making big money?  

But if ETH is cleaner, then why go with BTC?

I honestly can't understand why there is this hypnotic hold on everybody to continue with BTC. With time, technology gets better...so wouldn't it make sense that eventually BTC would become like a Model-T? It doesn't make sense to expect that the BTC/Model-T is still the best crypto/car out there, after more cryptos/cars have been made. 

What claim does BTC have over ETH?

[computerwiz]

2 minutes ago, M.J. said:

But if ETH is cleaner, then why go with BTC?

What claim does BTC have over ETH?

1. Because BTC was first, which has a huge amount of weight when it comes to who whales trust to hold all their millions & billions of dollars.  BTC as a blockchain has never been breached, never hacked to where money was lost.  Wallets can be "hacked" with seed phrases stolen, exchanges can get hacked, but the blockchain itself has been proven quite resilient.  And that's with attempts to crack it.  Just recently (maybe 2 years ago?) it resisted a "double-spend" operation.  So people are actively trying!

 

2. Because ETH broke one of the rules for crypto: one of the DAOs on their chain got hacked, and ETH rolled back the transactions.  This broke the rule of "immutability" with crypto.  All transactions are supposed to be permanent, even the ones we don't like.  And this actually did upset the community.  That's what Ethereum Classic exists.  Check into its history if you wanna learn more...

 

14 minutes ago, M.J. said:

I honestly can't understand why there is this hypnotic hold on everybody to continue with BTC. With time, technology gets better...so wouldn't it make sense that eventually BTC would become like a Model-T?

While yes, at its heart, all of this we are talking about is technology and it's supposed to get better.  And there are way better options than BTC.  But again, it all boils down to trust.

 

The core concept of crypto is that it is decentralized and immutable.  Also, an inflation hedge.  BTC checks all those boxes.  It has a max supply, there is no single company or entity controlling it (which are why improvements/adjustments are so hard), it won't just change how it works on ya based on someone's whim, and it has already earned everyone's trust.  That's the biggest key, because trust takes time.

 

Eventually, someone else may knock BTC off of its pedestal.  Especially with government regulation.  But I'm confident that won't happen within the next bull run.  BTC will still lead the pack, and the rest will follow.  Others will be more profitable, but BTC will be a "safe" bet.

 

AND...when you got something as predictable as BTC (see first chart on cycles), investors love that.  Think about it...if you got something that has moved in predictable cycles and it's calculatable...wouldn't you rather take a risk with that investment, as opposed to something fresh and new and that could fail?

[computerwiz]

 

Source: https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/10/04/prohibitive-global-crypto-capital-norms-could-derail-market-tradefi-groups-say/

 

Not sure about the "$9 Trillion" figure, but still, it's more good news for crypto!

[bobby]

ok so hear my Q. to you 

  if and only if i wonted to why would i buy crypto or bitcoin

can it pay my rent, put food on the table, buy gas, a new, car or home 

pay my power bill, 

Edited October 4, 2022 by bobby

[computerwiz]

5 minutes ago, bobby said:

ok so hear my Q. to you 

  if and only if i wonted to why would i buy crypto or bitcoin

can it pay my rent, put food on the table, buy gas, a new, car or home 

pay my power bill, 

It's an investment, same reason you or I would buy stocks.  People don't buy stocks because they want to have a voice in a company (only rich people do it for that).  People buy stocks because you can get a way higher % than just putting your money into a bank.

 

Example, when I sold my VET and MANA back in April 2021, I sold them for 1600% and 1200% gains.  My bank account would have paid me 0.25% for the same money.  It's a no brainer what did better for me.  And I paid off my wife's car thanks to it.  

 

So yeah...it could pay the bills or a new car.  If you can hold it long enough to see the return on your investment.  As I stated earlier, the current hold timeframe is 2-3 years.  If you can stash away money for that long, you can see some great gains with it.  And then when you cash out...you can pay your bills and more.  

[bobby]

oh ok so its more of a  investment, interesting. to bad i could not do that im on SSDI and i would have to report it 

    

[M.J.]

6 hours ago, bobby said:

oh ok so its more of a  investment, interesting. to bad i could not do that im on SSDI and i would have to report it 

    

Stock market is excluded from SSDI 

 

https://www.investopedia.com/investments-an-important-income-source-for-people-with-disabilities-5097365

 

 

Edited October 5, 2022 by M.J.

[Hava Saber]

On 9/28/2022 at 4:21 AM, Dustparticle said:

Like  bitcoin, cryptos can be a scam. Invest into chocolate. You cannot go wrong on this.

Brother Glenn, you always say chocolate. When paradise come, I'll find you and ask for chocolates. I know you gonna run a factory on there. 🤣