Is it time to risk investing in crypto?

[computerwiz]

7 hours ago, Dages said:

Should we change the ! for a ? in the title?

 

 

Not necessarily. 

 

Despite all the drama with FTX, crypto has shown remarkable resilience. Honestly I'm surprised it has held up that well.

 

I am less confident at this point that this is the bottom. But we shall see. In any case, I think starting up bots with Pionex is the smartest way to play right now. Either that or wait till BTC is back to 18k or higher. 

[New World Explorer]

3 hours ago, computerwiz said:

Despite all the drama with FTX, crypto has shown remarkable resilience. Honestly I'm surprised it has held up that well.

Yet, there are huge risks associated with crypto.

One reason is this: History shows that almost all non-banks die during liquidity crises precisely because the asset/liability mismatches that are the basis of their business models become untenable when there is a run on their funding. There is no central bank or government support to bail them out because they exist outside the prudential regulatory net that is designed to save banks during such times. Think Aussie, RAMS and Wizard during the GFC in Australia, or Lehman Brothers in the US.(Financial Review) 

[New World Explorer]

 

Police in Estonia have arrested two men suspected of running a $575m (£485m) cryptocurrency scam involving hundreds of thousands of victims.

Estonian police investigated the case with the FBI, and US authorities want to extradite the pair - Estonians Sergei Potapenko and Ivan Turogin.

The two 37-year-olds allegedly got people to invest in a cryptocurrency mining service called HashFlare and a fake virtual bank called Polybius.

A US indictment has been issued.https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63711843

[New World Explorer]

More drama associated with crypto:

 

European Bank criticises digital currency sector for facilitating illegal activity

 

The European Central Bank says bitcoin is on an “artificially induced last gasp before the road to irrelevance”, in a scathing intervention arguing against giving regulatory legitimacy to the cryptocurrency.

In a strongly worded blogpost, senior European Central Bank (ECB) staffers Ulrich Bindseil and Jürgen Schaaf criticised bitcoin for being a hotbed of illegal transactions that brings reputational risk for any bank that gets involved with the sector.

 

The value of the digital currency has plummeted from a peak of almost $70,000 to a low of $16,000 since the collapse of the crypto exchange FTX, before stabilising at about $20,000. But the ECB authors say even this stabilisation is likely to be false, an artefact of market manipulation rather than genuine demand.https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/nov/30/ecb-says-bitcoin-is-on-road-to-irrelevance-amid-crypto-collapse

[Tortuga]

Edited November 30, 2022 by Tortuga

[computerwiz]

17 hours ago, New World Explorer said:

More drama associated with crypto:

 

European Bank criticises digital currency sector for facilitating illegal activity

 

The European Central Bank says bitcoin is on an “artificially induced last gasp before the road to irrelevance”, in a scathing intervention arguing against giving regulatory legitimacy to the cryptocurrency.

In a strongly worded blogpost, senior European Central Bank (ECB) staffers Ulrich Bindseil and Jürgen Schaaf criticised bitcoin for being a hotbed of illegal transactions that brings reputational risk for any bank that gets involved with the sector.

 

The value of the digital currency has plummeted from a peak of almost $70,000 to a low of $16,000 since the collapse of the crypto exchange FTX, before stabilising at about $20,000. But the ECB authors say even this stabilisation is likely to be false, an artefact of market manipulation rather than genuine demand.https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/nov/30/ecb-says-bitcoin-is-on-road-to-irrelevance-amid-crypto-collapse

 

Hmm...yes, of course a bank would want to spread FUD about crypto.  It would steal so much business from them!  

 

Probably the post office felt the same way about email.

 

Maybe even the Catholic church regarding the printing press.

 

And then there's these guys...

 

 

 

 

 

"Experts" are funny....  

[Tortuga]

9 minutes ago, computerwiz said:

"Experts" are funny....  

Does that include the same ones that recommend Crypto?

[computerwiz]

1 minute ago, Tortuga said:

Does that include the same ones that recommend Crypto?

 

Most of them, yes.  There were plenty of crypto "experts" that were claiming we would see 100k Bitcoin with the last bull run.  

 

While they were all saying that, I was warning people to get out.  This was a post I made in Discord back in January.

 

 

 

When it comes to the "experts", they give off very very clear signals on when to buy and sell.  For example....this is when it is time to sell:

 

 

 

And this is when it is time to buy:

 

 

 

 

 

But I prefer looking at the data.  And the data says now is the time.  The FTX drama just pushed us back a few months.  If the CPI data come in looking great, that might fix the crypto situation.  If not, then I'd say March is when crypto gets to "take off".  I think that's enough time to put all this drama behind it.

 

But even now there's coins that are having decent rallies.  DOGE & MATIC & ETH are good examples.

[New World Explorer]

5 hours ago, computerwiz said:

But even now there's coins that are having decent rallies.  DOGE & MATIC & ETH are good examples.

This is how some feel about ETH, 

 

Klippsten, who predicted the FTX collapse before it occurred, called FTX's CEO Sam Bankman-Fried "Scam Bankster Fraud." He also implied that  Ethereum, which recently transitioned to a proof-of-stake protocol, would fail as it grows increasingly "complicated" and politicized. 

"Ethereum is a long con," he said. "This thing is sort of broken theoretically from the beginning, trying to pack way too much functionality into a Layer One Protocol… All proof-of-stake networks are doomed from the start and cannot exist in the long-run. They're inherently political. They're basically just fiat… This thing is going to be a big blow up in the end." 

He added that "DeFi is basically fake."

[computerwiz]

21 hours ago, New World Explorer said:

"Ethereum is a long con," he said. "This thing is sort of broken theoretically from the beginning, trying to pack way too much functionality into a Layer One Protocol… All proof-of-stake networks are doomed from the start and cannot exist in the long-run. They're inherently political. They're basically just fiat… This thing is going to be a big blow up in the end."

 

Ethereum was good, until they switched to proof-of-stake.  Because I agree with the statement that PoS is at risk of being dominated/controlled by a single entity.  It's easy for someone with a ton of money to scoop up 51%+ of a PoS coin and then control the network.  Much harder for someone to have warehouses of computers/mining rigs to take over a PoW coin, like Bitcoin.

 

When crypto becomes much more mainstream, I think I will completely abandon any PoS coin.  But I think we have 1 more bull run for them to be good before that becomes a big concern...

[New World Explorer]

BlackRock’s Fink Says Most Crypto Firms Will Fold Following FTX’s Implosion

• BlackRock CEO says his firm had invested $24 million in FTX
• Fink still sees potential in the technology underlying crypto

[New World Explorer]

Australian cryptocurrency exchange Digital Surge has collapsed into administration, with its 30,000 Aussie customers unable to trade or withdraw money.
(please google for link)

[New World Explorer]

New YorkCNN — 

Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of failed crypto exchange FTX, was arrested in the Bahamas on Monday after US prosecutors filed criminal charges against him, according to a statement from the government of the Bahamas.

The Southern District of New York, which is investigating Bankman-Fried and the collapse of FTX and its sister trading firm Alameda, confirmed his arrest on Twitter.

 

The New York Times, citing a person familiar with the matter, reported that the charges against Bankman-Fried included wire fraud, wire fraud conspiracy, securities fraud, securities fraud conspiracy and money laundering. 

One of the key questions about FTX’s collapse stems from a Reuters report last month that says Bankman-Fried built a “backdoor” into FTX’s accounting system, allowing him to alter the company’s financial records without tripping accounting red flags. The report said Bankman-Fried used this “backdoor” to transfer $10 billion in FTX customer funds to Alameda, the hedge fund, and at least $1 billion is now missing.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/12/business/sam-bankman-fried-arrested/index.html

[New World Explorer]

Interesting video 

Comment of the day " Nobody even understands what crypto is" LOL 

http://edition.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/12/15/cryptocurrency-actor-ben-mckenzie-intv-contd-cnntm-vpx.cnn

[computerwiz]

Probably best to wait in cash for everything right now.  Even the stock market is still bleeding out.  Though Bitcoin is surprisingly stable at $16k.

 

Lots of people calling for $12k BTC or less.  That alone makes me think it's time to buy.  Can't be that many people correct, right?    Don't follow the crowd...  

 

In any case, I've already made my investments.  I'm not adding another penny until the fed pivots...

[computerwiz]

 

If y'all watching the markets, you'll see how much bullishness has returned.  And my crypto prediction model?  Back on track!!!

 

You see what's next?  I don't know if it will actually take off like that in a week.  I think it will take longer.  But we'll see...

 

[Beggar for the Spirit]

1 hour ago, computerwiz said:

 

Jeremy, what indicator are you using that is in blue?  (Your wrote “Blue bars are predicted path”)

[computerwiz]

1 minute ago, Beggar for the Spirit said:

Jeremy, what indicator are you using that is in blue?  (Your wrote “Blue bars are predicted path”)

 

It's just a fractal pattern based on crypto's 2015 winter.  I felt like we are more similar to 2015's winter than 2018, so I copied the bar movement and overlaid it.  It was extremely accurate up to FTX's debacle.  Now it's back on track...

[Beggar for the Spirit]

Just now, computerwiz said:

It's just a fractal pattern based on crypto's 2015 winter.  I felt like we are more similar to 2015's winter than 2018, so I copied the bar movement and overlaid it.  It was extremely accurate up to FTX's debacle.  Now it's back on track...

Thanks, does this fractal pattern have a specific name?

[computerwiz]

Just now, Beggar for the Spirit said:

Thanks, does this fractal pattern have a specific name?

 

No, I'm not even 100% sure it is actually called a "fractal pattern"...I'm just repeating what several have called my copy & paste method.  That's literally what it is.  Here's basically what I did:

 

 

 

Then you click where you want to start your copy, and then click where you want to end your copy.

 

I copied the 2015 winter at the point where the MACD and RSI was closest in resemblance to where we were at (at the point of making this prediction) and voila!  It worked pretty well...

 

 

[bobby]

anyone bee watching Nora Donald on are you ready for retirement series 

https://www.cbsnews.com/evening-news/#search-form:

[computerwiz]

38 minutes ago, bobby said:

anyone bee watching Nora Donald on are you ready for retirement series 

https://www.cbsnews.com/evening-news/#search-form:

Nope. Saw something interesting with it about crypto? 

[bobby]

no it was all about investing but i was thinking that one avenue 

[Geralyn]

I am a retiree that was not really able to invest or plan as "the head" simply would not allow me to help, guide or consult.   We did make headway after I stopped cleaning up his credit messes and told him I would leave if the house was lost.  This unsavory "Wakeup Call" helped him stay $$ current.   I even got him to double up on mortagage(!) and we are mortgage free now. Yay!  Building some $$ savings but inflation may eat that up soon and banks are seeming very iffy.   I was thinking after a recent snafu trying to access my account and I was brought to tears trying to meet the security inquiry to get my own information, the phone teller was brutal that I recall the names of companies that have changed hands and a qualifying relative's name that had married a couple times in 30 yrs~!   Not getting any younger!   lol   What do you see in the crypto world that equates to the security and ease of a checking/savings account?  Does this make sense what I am asking?   Rather than have all our eggs in one basket (credit union, small one) maybe we should have another option and banks now are scaring me.   Not really looking to "invest" just to transfer some $$ and have access from anywhere with some confidence that I can pay for needs on the road or out of state...   Is crypto even a real banking option?

[computerwiz]

49 minutes ago, Geralyn said:

I am a retiree that was not really able to invest or plan as "the head" simply would not allow me to help, guide or consult.   We did make headway after I stopped cleaning up his credit messes and told him I would leave if the house was lost.  This unsavory "Wakeup Call" helped him stay $$ current.   I even got him to double up on mortagage(!) and we are mortgage free now. Yay!  Building some $$ savings but inflation may eat that up soon and banks are seeming very iffy.   I was thinking after a recent snafu trying to access my account and I was brought to tears trying to meet the security inquiry to get my own information, the phone teller was brutal that I recall the names of companies that have changed hands and a qualifying relative's name that had married a couple times in 30 yrs~!   Not getting any younger!   lol   What do you see in the crypto world that equates to the security and ease of a checking/savings account?  Does this make sense what I am asking?   Rather than have all our eggs in one basket (credit union, small one) maybe we should have another option and banks now are scaring me.   Not really looking to "invest" just to transfer some $$ and have access from anywhere with some confidence that I can pay for needs on the road or out of state...   Is crypto even a real banking option?

 

I understand what you are looking for, and the answer is: despite all the turmoil in banks, at least banks are protected by FDIC.  Unless you have over $250k in the bank, you don't need to worry.  You are better off splitting your money between 2-3 banks.  And that would mean you get $250k insurance at EACH bank.

 

Crypto is super-high risk and should not be used for money that you need.  Case in point: Mt. Gox customers are just now getting their funds 8 years later.

 

You also have victims from the following exchanges:

• Cryptopia
• Voyager
• Celsius
• FTX
• And at least 25 more.

At this time, you should only consider crypto as an investment, not a savings/checking replacement.  And you should only get into it if you have knowledge of hardware wallets, gas fees, and how to safely transfer between networks.  It takes a good bit of computer skill to deal with crypto safely these days.  But if you can, you can make a lot of money with it...