Global economy and supply chains fracturing

[hatcheckgirl]

Well, we saw what happened during the Pandemic, and that is still going on - empty shelves at supermarkets, long long delays for overseas tech, cars etc.  The "Global Economy" has been evolving every since explorers and traders sailed around the world in search of new markets.  But we've seen an explosion since the 1980's  when manufacturing was "off-shored" to cheaper labour markets.  And then particularly in the early 2000's with the tech advantages of instant communication, things sorta went ballistic for logistics/goods movements/supply chains/warehousing and this is where we are at now - the "Just-in-time" economies. 

 

This is a term to describe an economy defined by a lean — and at times mean — philosophy and approach to everything from production to employment, and a financial system enmeshed with it, aimed at cutting costs and eliminating waste. Avoiding the costs of holding inventories and warehousing was a key part of the strategy.  So, that sorta makes sense for production.  But.....there is also the 

 

Just-in -time workforce

Casualisation, labour hire, self-employment in the so-called "gig economy" and zero hours contracts are all manifestations of a "just-in-time workforce", where the worker becomes an economic buffer, absorbing the risk of variations in demand. "A core of ongoing employees was surrounded by an expanded periphery of part-time, casual and contract labour who could be upsized and downsized as required. For business, there is an obvious cost advantage in being able to tailor work hours by the day and by the hour to meet demand.

Like widgets on the assembly line, workers are sourced and delivered "just in time". The just-in-time workforce also shifts power from labour to capital: people in insecure jobs are less inclined to speak out, push back or unionise.

 

And that's where we suffered under the pandemic - all production, labour and the logistics were now out of sync.  The uncertainty of the labour force of a steady job meant that families were vulnerable, with no savings behind them. "It's contributed to the rise of "just-in-time" household budgets where people live hand to mouth, with more than a quarter of Australian households reporting they have less than a thousand dollars in cash savings."

 

Just-in-time finance

Just about every payment, from mortgages to utility bills, has been bundled up into financial securities that are sold and traded around the world.  Quite literally, if every household were to stop paying its utility bills, the financial system would collapse — and it would only take an unexpectedly high share of households to renege on payments to push the system to the brink.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-02/coronavirus-pandemic-exposes-just-in-time-economy/12206776

 

And now the war.....Supply chains will be re-written

One possibility:
 

"We are witnessing the remaking of the world order in front of our eyes, and this will impact global supply chains in unforeseen ways," Freight Waves chief executive Craig Fuller wrote. "We are about to experience the most dramatic and unpredictable supply chain map we've experienced since World War II.

 

"If the Russia-Ukraine conflict's international ramifications keep spreading, we face a real possibility of a bifurcating (divide into two branches or forks) global economy, in which geopolitical alliances, energy and food flows, currency systems, and trade lanes could split."

 

Mr Fuller predicted Western companies would start to shift sourcing away from the "East" and more toward Western and neutral states. "North American economic integration will become a new priority," he said. "Surface transportation across the Eurasian continent will become more complex, and possibly contested. "Entire supply chains will be rewritten, with new sources and partners, all in the interest of corporate and national security. "The future market winners will be the corporations that make the investments in supply chain infrastructure and reliable, Western-friendly production locations."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-06/why-global-supply-chains-will-be-rewritten-in-coming-years/100875330

 

All we are seeing before our very eyes, all the analysis that shows how corrupt and money-hungry this mercantile system is shows us we are so very close to the end of this humanity-degrading system.  Rev 22:20

 

 

[BLEmom]

It would be wise to maintain, not only a go bag, but a two week supply of food. Every day I think of Br. Morris’s statement in the “This is it” talk.  He said “Cheer up. It’s going to get worse.”

[jps]

i realized this a long time ago,

getting the truth is also sort of taking the red pill...

[Dages]

45 minutes ago, BLEmom said:

It would be wise to maintain, not only a go bag, but a two week supply of food. Every day I think of Br. Morris’s statement in the “This is it” talk.  He said “Cheer up. It’s going to get worse.”

In our area, we are still supposed to have a 1 month supply

[jps]

2 minutes ago, Dages said:

In our area, we are still supposed to have a 1 month supply

in my area the government recommends 3 days supply,

 

i have 2 months..

[trottigy]

14 hours ago, hatcheckgirl said:

 

 

All we are seeing before our very eyes, all the analysis that shows how corrupt and money-hungry this mercantile system is shows us we are so very close to the end of this humanity-degrading system.  Rev 22:20

 

 

This made me think of Jesus kicking the merchants out of the temple. One of the reasons was their cheating and money-hungry ways. It seems to me this is not a new thing. Are businesses more money hungry now than before - I don’t know.

 

Anyway, always good to have a “go bag”. We just make sure we have food and water (in containers that we use) in the fridge and cabinets. 

[hatcheckgirl]

I don’t think the world has cottoned on how extensive and destructive the floods on the East coast of Australia have been, with Ukraine obviously much more in the headlines. But the supply of fresh food for a majority of Australians is going to be severely affected. Disasters are now much more common, and are far more destructive. Getting food from farm to market is very disrupted.  And the floods are continuing, as wet weather is ongoing.

 

“He (the farmer) said the flood crisis highlighted the importance of farmers in a functioning society.

"I think we saw through this week a shortage of milk as well as many other fresh vegetables," he said.

"Our farmers play a vital role in the wellbeing of our whole population and I think if people realised the impact that natural events like the floods have and the impact it has on providing fresh food to our population, then I think they would be in a better place to understand the impacts it has had on our farmers."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-07/qld-farmers-flood-crop-damage-milk-loss/100887048

[trottigy]

In the GB update #2 they mentioned the Ukraine crisis, but also about natural disasters.  It's coming in bigger and bigger waves. 

[Dages]

14 minutes ago, trottigy said:

In the GB update #2 they mentioned the Ukraine crisis, but also about natural disasters.  It's coming in bigger and bigger waves. 

Same in the March Broadcast... the end is a lot about natural disaster

[Sofia]

Today news are alarming 

GT scenario on sight:

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/08/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html
 

us banning oil/gas imports from Russia

Putin just signed a law to forbid export of raw materials and other products (details not given but he was surely very mad when announcing)

china asks everybody to cool down

Us says it will ban china products/enterprises if China keeps supporting Russia

us is bribering Iran by releasing them

from heavy sanctions exchanging of “changing sides” specialty in nuc agreements 

 

what else can happen in 24h?! 
Gas in Portugal is over 2,00€

in Germany 2,40€

U.S. experts say it may cost 5 $ a gallon soon

 

Boy we need Armagedom fast !

[Sofia]

On 3/6/2022 at 3:29 PM, BLEmom said:

It would be wise to maintain, not only a go bag, but a two week supply of food. Every day I think of Br. Morris’s statement in the “This is it” talk.  He said “Cheer up. It’s going to get worse.”

I would say months of food if possible if we can hide at home

its hard to take 2 months supply food with us running way if needed 

 

I remember brother Morris saying that on a talk to the 148Th Gilead graduation 🤗 

very profound 

[Tortuga]

5 minutes ago, Sofia said:

U.S. experts say it may cost 5 $ a gallon soon

California is already averaging $5.44 a gallon.

[Sofia]

Just now, Tortuga said:

California is already averaging $5.44 a gallon.

Already!!! Boy that is going so fast!

not good

[Lee49]

4 minutes ago, Tortuga said:

California is already averaging $5.44 a gallon.

around $3.99 here in Middle Tennessee ( south of Nashville ) I'm in the market for a 3 wheel bicycle with a big basket on the back! 😉

 

 

[hatcheckgirl]

The covid-zero policy in China is now severely going to impact China and the supply chain even more. China is currently locking down cities with increasing cases, meaning industry grinds to a halt.

 

“Shenzhen, which is located in the Guandong province in the country's south-east, has recorded 48 new cases.

The city of 17.5 million people was placed into lockdown on Sunday after 75 new cases were recorded.

Everyone in Shenzhen is required to be tested three times and all businesses, except those that supply food, fuel and other necessities, were ordered to close, or work from home on Monday.

Shenzhen is home to several prominent Chinese companies, including telecommunications equipment maker Huawei and Tencent Holding, the operator of the WeChat message service.”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-15/china-records-biggest-increase-of-covid-cases-since-pandemic/100911334

As well as that, tensions are affecting commodity prices, with stocks stumbling in Australia. Covid in China cripples the steel industry and other manufacturing.

 

“Investors remained cautious awaiting new developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and policy cues from the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is expected to raise interest rates in its meeting on Wednesday.

 

“The market is quite nervous naturally, it is likely to remain volatile at least until the end of the week,” Brad Smoling, managing director of Smoling Stockbroking, said.

 

He added that choppy commodity prices were likely to persist until a solution was found for cross-border tensions.

Leading declines, miners dropped 4.2% to their lowest since Feb. 24, as a surge in coronavirus cases in China hit prices of iron ore, a raw material used in making steel.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/australia-stocks-close/australia-shares-slip-as-china-covid-concerns-hit-miners-commodity-stocks-idUKL3N2VI1GZ

The world economies are most probably more directly affected by what happens to China than the Ukraine conflict, which immediately affects Europe mostly and the rest of the world on the periphery.  But China had a major impact on world-wide supplies due to globalisation.

[BLEmom]

I hope the local farmers are growing plenty of produce this year! 
Of course, many areas won’t have that luxury. 
More disaster to come…

[hatcheckgirl]

Yes, disasters have devastating the crops in Eastern Australia. Another setback for food supply. 

[surfergirl]

On 3/16/2022 at 12:25 PM, hatcheckgirl said:

Yes, disasters have devastating the crops in Eastern Australia. Another setback for food supply. 

It's still going on. It's now 27 th March. Heavy rain is still here. Certain products are still not on the shelves. I've taken to buying online eBay and catch. To get stuff.  It's hard too. I buy in bulk for the family. But then. You get moths. Try everything to get rid of them. I bought chilli flakes went to use them. I put stuff in sealed jars. Moths got into the chilli's. 

[hatcheckgirl]

The state of Western Australia is one of the few places worldwide that has posted a surplus in their economy due to exporting iron ore to China throughout the pandemic (made possible in part because of internal border closures that kept out covid and kept businesses and the mining industry going unfettered).

 

So posting a massive surplus of $5.7 billion should mean there’s plenty of cash to splash. (The Federal govt by comparison has a $78 billion deficit).

 

However, just having cash isn’t going to help with supply chain blockages caused by all that has hit our economies these past few years:

 

“As the budget papers outline, there are many reasons for the "cost escalation and supply chain constraints" which are dramatically affecting its big infrastructure projects.

These include:

Measures by governments to stimulate the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic

Supply chain problems caused by factors including the closure of the Trans-Australian railway line earlier this year, workplace absences due to COVID-19 in other states and pandemic-related logistical issues

Rising costs in building materials, which have been affected by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and increased freight costs

A shortage of skilled workers, partly because of border closures.”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-13/billion-dollar-infrastructure-project-blowout-wa-budget/101062384

 

How ironic! All that money, and we still have problems!