The Mysterious Coronavirus Spreading Worldwide

[trottigy]

Just now, BenJepthah said:

FYI : most medical staff that I work with ( a lot) have lost confidence in the CDC. They still are following guidelines but openly state the CDC is an epic failure. 

 

It seems like many in the healthcare industry are saying this not because so few have died, but rather since so many have died. Am I missing something?

 

 

 

[Bob]

12 minutes ago, BenJepthah said:

FYI : most medical staff that I work with ( a lot) have lost confidence in the CDC. They still are following guidelines but openly state the CDC is an epic failure. 

Well, the only issue I had with health officials is that their projections have been dismal, and dead wrong like 100 percent of the time. They first estimated millions of US deaths, then 250k at the high end, then 60 thousand by summer (which has been under estimated by a long shot), and something along the lines of 2 thousand deaths a day in July (which seems highly unlikely seeing the massive drop in deaths over the past few weeks.

 

I agree the recommendations about protecting yourself and others are sound, but they need to get out of the business of making educated guesses about the distant future of this virus.

[Mykyl]

1 hour ago, Bob said:

We are listening to the superior authorities, but them saying millions MORE will die is a non-factual statement at this point. To say millions more will die means millions have already died. 

 

Its an outright falsehood. 

Yep. 

I'm going to assume you don't natively speak English. Your reading what's not there. Let's imagine 2 people die. I say next week millions more will die. This has no bearing on how many have died up to now. Just millions more than the current 2 will die.

 

Thats what they are saying. Forget how many have died up to now. They are worried that millions more than the half million so far may die in a second phase.

[Bob]

14 minutes ago, Mykyl said:

I'm going to assume you don't natively speak English.

Was that comment necessary?

 

14 minutes ago, Mykyl said:

Your reading what's not there. Let's imagine 2 people die. I say next week millions more will die. This has no bearing on how many have died up to now. Just millions more than the current 2 will die.

 

Thats what they are saying. Forget how many have died up to now. They are worried that millions more than the half million so far may die in a second phase.

But if only 2 people die, saying millions would die is an unfounded assumption, because what if it turns out that after the two die, and the most that die are 100, then you've lost credibility. 

 

Remember, health officials need credibility in a national crisis, because they need us to trust their guidance. So projecting millions of deaths when there has barely been 500k with the fatality rate dropping (at least in the US), they're harming their credibility, especially seeing how their death projections have been wildly wrong to this point. 

[Shawnster]

2 hours ago, Bob said:

WHO has less and less credibility with nonsense like this.

 

How can they say "millions more could die" when not even ONE MILLION has died so far? They're just selling fear with non-factual statements like that. We are not even near a million deaths, let alone "millions".

Where did the WHO say "millions more?" I only glanced at the article.  I saw where CNN used the word in describing what the WHO said, but I didn't see "millions more" in any direct quote. Did I miss it? P

Edited June 28, 2020 by Shawnster

[elisha]

I totally agree with @Shawnster.   I only see "Millions more could die..." in the title of CNN's article, it's not even in the WHO quote they have within the article.

 

The WHO representative was apparently comparing the global spike that they are observing now as being similar to the Spanish Flu, where millions did die in the late summer/early autumn.

 

In fact, even the text of the article itself, it just says "millions of people could die.."    Looks to me more like click bait on the part of CNN.

Edited June 28, 2020 by elisha

[Bob]

2 minutes ago, Shawnster said:

Where did the WHO say "millions?" I only glanced at the article.  I saw where CNN used the word in describing what the WHO said, but I didn't see "millions" in any direct quote. Did I miss it? P

Quote

"The comparison is with the Spanish Flu, which behaved exactly like Covid: it went down in the summer and fiercely resumed in September and October, creating 50 million deaths during the second wave,” Dr Ranieri Guerra, WHO assistant director-general for strategic initiatives told Italy’s Rai TV."

 

Direct comparisons with the Spanish Flu, which killed tens of millions, is saying Covid will kill tens of millions. 

[Bob]

And if people don't think wrong projections have serious consequences, look at what happened in the beginning of Covid. The long discredited Imperial College study, said 2.2 million Americans would die. 

 

This sent people into panic because it was a new virus, and caused the shutdowns, which ruined thousands of people financially. The flaw in that study was that it assumed 2.2 million at the high end if no preventive measures were taken. So it was a bad projection, based on a faulty premise that the States and Federal Govt would allow us walk over dead bodies while going about our normal lives. 

 

So these wrong projections have serious consequences. 

Edited June 28, 2020 by Bob

[BenJepthah]

32 minutes ago, Shawnster said:

Where did the WHO say "millions more?" I only glanced at the article.  I saw where CNN used the word in describing what the WHO said, but I didn't see "millions more" in any direct quote. Did I miss it? P

I think you just found the problem.  CNN

[Mykyl]

39 minutes ago, Bob said:

Was that comment necessary?

Yes it was. It helped explain why I thought you were not understanding a statement. Nothing negative about it. Just trying to help. 

The following is another example. Its just a common way of speaking in English. 

 

A drawing I am working on is going to take dozens more hours doesnt mean I have already spent dozens of hours on the drawing already. I may have just spent 10 minutes so far. Thats what I was trying to point out.

 

Others have made it clearer what was actually said by the WHO.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 28, 2020 by Mykyl

[Shawnster]

20 minutes ago, Bob said:

Direct comparisons with the Spanish Flu, which killed tens of millions, is saying Covid will kill tens of millions. 

Yeah, I went back and amended my comment to include the more.  You must have been faster than I was.  Sometimes headlines and news stories are written to sensationalize, so it's good to see what was actually being said vs. how the story spun the comment.  Thanks for the clarification.

 

Mykyl does have a point.  It is a curious matter or the English language that using "more" it this case does not need to mean that millions have already died.  His illustration is correct.  If 10 people have died and 200 more people will die, then it is grammatically and logically correct to say "hundreds more will die" even though only 20 had died to date.  That word "more" can cause the sentence to be interpreted either way.  Sometimes it comes down to how the reader chooses to understand what is being said.  If the CDC, knowing that only 502,000 have died and they expect millions are yet to die, then it would be grammatically correct to say "millions more" will die.  

 

1 hour ago, Bob said:

Well, the only issue I had with health officials is that their projections have been dismal, and dead wrong like 100 percent of the time. They first estimated millions of US deaths, then 250k at the high end, then 60 thousand by summer (which has been under estimated by a long shot), and something along the lines of 2 thousand deaths a day in July (which seems highly unlikely seeing the massive drop in deaths over the past few weeks.

 

My understanding is those early projections were based upon the governments not imposing any restrictions whatsoever.  They were issuing a warning so that the governments would do something.  The governments responded and heeded the warning.  The result is fewer deaths than initially expected.  This isn't a fault of the CDC or any organization issuing a warning.  It's actually a success because people heeded the warning.

 

So, again, this is a matter of how we choose to interpret the situation.  Sometimes people are damned if the do and damned if they don't.  

 

This has been m fear.  I was afraid that people would not feel this pandemic was as dangerous as the warnings were saying.  My fear was that heeding the warnings would be so successful that people would then claim the warnings were overrated or exaggerated and that Coronavirus is not as bad as they initially thought.  All because warnings were heeded and people took appropriate precautions.  

 

I guess I just don't understand.  I mean, the numbers are still going up.  We're seeing spikes all around the US.  If the warning isn't sounded or if it's not emphasized enough then the death toll will be great.  It's already a challenge for people to wear masks and social distance.  The more lives that are saved or protected, the more people are clamoring that this whole thing is not that big a deal.

[elisha]

14 minutes ago, Bob said:

And if people don't think wrong projections have serious consequences, look at what happened in the beginning of Covid. The long discredited Imperial College study, said 2.2 million Americans would die. 

 

This sent people into panic because it was a new virus, and caused the shutdowns, which ruined thousands of people financially. The flaw in that study was that it assumed 2.2 million at the high end if no preventive measures were taken. So it was a bad projection, based on a faulty premise that the States and Federal Govt would allow us walk over dead bodies while going about our normal lives. 

 

So these wrong projections have serious consequences. 

But if no projections are released or if they are underestimated, no one would've done anything.

Just saying I don't think there's one correct way to handle public messaging or projections, prior to or during a pandemic, when events and behaviors are changing so rapidly.

 

It all just shows that it does not belong to man who is walking even to direct his step, let alone to direct the steps of others!

[Bob]

2 minutes ago, Shawnster said:

Yeah, I went back and amended my comment to include the more.  You must have been faster than I was.  Sometimes headlines and news stories are written to sensationalize, so it's good to see what was actually being said vs. how the story spun the comment.  Thanks for the clarification.

 

Mykyl does have a point.  It is a curious matter or the English language that using "more" it this case does not need to mean that millions have already died.  His illustration is correct.  If 10 people have died and 200 more people will die, then it is grammatically and logically correct to say "hundreds more will die" even though only 20 had died to date.  That word "more" can cause the sentence to be interpreted either way.  Sometimes it comes down to how the reader chooses to understand what is being said.  If the CDC, knowing that only 502,000 have died and they expect millions are yet to die, then it would be grammatically correct to say "millions more" will die.  

 

My understanding is those early projections were based upon the governments not imposing any restrictions whatsoever.  They were issuing a warning so that the governments would do something.  The governments responded and heeded the warning.  The result is fewer deaths than initially expected.  This isn't a fault of the CDC or any organization issuing a warning.  It's actually a success because people heeded the warning.

 

So, again, this is a matter of how we choose to interpret the situation.  Sometimes people are damned if the do and damned if they don't.  

 

This has been m fear.  I was afraid that people would not feel this pandemic was as dangerous as the warnings were saying.  My fear was that heeding the warnings would be so successful that people would then claim the warnings were overrated or exaggerated and that Coronavirus is not as bad as they initially thought.  All because warnings were heeded and people took appropriate precautions.  

 

I guess I just don't understand.  I mean, the numbers are still going up.  We're seeing spikes all around the US.  If the warning isn't sounded or if it's not emphasized enough then the death toll will be great.  It's already a challenge for people to wear masks and social distance.  The more lives that are saved or protected, the more people are clamoring that this whole thing is not that big a deal.

I think you’re right about how we interpret stuff. No disagreement there. 

[Bob]

Just now, elisha said:

But if no projections are released or if they are underestimated, no one would've done anything.

Just saying I don't think there's one correct way to handle public messaging or projections, prior to or during a pandemic, when events and behaviors are changing so rapidly.

 

It all just shows that it does not belong to man who is walking even to direct his step, let alone to direct the steps of others!

I disagree. You don’t need a doomsday worse case scenario projection to get action from our health officials. 
 

This is not a black and white, action v no action scenario. It never was. 

4 minutes ago, elisha said:

But if no projections are released or if they are underestimated, no one would've done anything.

Just saying I don't think there's one correct way to handle public messaging or projections, prior to or during a pandemic, when events and behaviors are changing so rapidly.

 

It all just shows that it does not belong to man who is walking even to direct his step, let alone to direct the steps of others!

But good point about man’s leadership! 

[elisha]

10 minutes ago, Bob said:

I disagree. You don’t need a doomsday worse case scenario projection to get action from our health officials. 
 

This is not a black and white, action v no action scenario. It never was. 

But good point about man’s leadership! 

I do agree about getting action from health officials.  But I was referring to public messaging, i.e. action on the part of the public; which, as we can see, is a completely different story...

[Hugh O'D]

1 hour ago, Bob said:

Well, the only issue I had with health officials is that their projections have been dismal, and dead wrong like 100 percent of the time. They first estimated millions of US deaths, then 250k at the high end, then 60 thousand by summer (which has been under estimated by a long shot),

You're mixing up reports. The Health Organizations were saying high figures, one's like President Trump the low figures. He was the one who said it was beaten at 50,000 to 60.000, then said it wouldn't pass 70,000, actually he meant 80,000 etc. Rejecting health agencies because people who disagree with them turn out to be wrong is like (but not quite as severe) as rejecting the Bible because of the crimes of Christendom.

 

16 minutes ago, Bob said:

This sent people into panic because it was a new virus, and caused the shutdowns, which ruined thousands of people financially. The flaw in that study was that it assumed 2.2 million at the high end if no preventive measures were taken. So it was a bad projection, based on a faulty premise that the States and Federal Govt would allow us walk over dead bodies while going about our normal lives. 

 

What exactly are you looking for Bob? You're basically complaining that people lived because of following the different Health Agencies advice. Please also remember, since this virus was new for everyone no one knew for certain how things were going to go and they're still learning. Put it another way. Are you saying that the FDS have made a complete mess up by imposing Lockdown's in the Bethels?  Added on since people are responding faster than I can type this.

 

4 minutes ago, Bob said:

You don’t need a doomsday worse case scenario projection to get action from our health officials. 

1)Health officials don't impose Lockdowns and Quarantines, the Local and National Government does that. Studies say possibilities, the politicians must make decisions based on what is always going to be imperfect reasoning.

2) Who knows what the doomsday scenario is? Can you say how many will die depending on different types of Lockdown? None of us can because as @elisha above says, it does not belong to man to direct his step. They said that under certain circumstances the death toll could be such and such, back in the early days when the death toll was only in the thousands people complained that it was nothing, when it was in the tens of thousands they complained it was just a mild flu, when it exceeded the 100,000 mark worldwide they continued to scoff. There still scoffing despite the fact that we've a far higher death toll than any nay-sayer admitted and its still rising. I'm not panicking, no one should panic, but I am taking reasonable precautions because of the predictions.

 

 

38 minutes ago, Bob said:

Direct comparisons with the Spanish Flu, which killed tens of millions, is saying Covid will kill tens of millions.

First wave of Spanish Flu was only a slightly more severe flu, second wave was the killer. They're saying that the second wave could be a much worse killer. That's all. I can't prove it will, anti lockdown advocate's can't prove it won't, but my son isn't playing in the local playground until the FDS says it's ok.

[Shawnster]

14 minutes ago, Bob said:

I disagree. You don’t need a doomsday worse case scenario projection to get action from our health officials. 

But you do to get a reaction out of the populace.  I mean, just look at how they are reacting with the current levels of warnings.  No masks, refusing to wear masks, no social distancing, open everything back up, everyone pile in at the beach, don't worry about your health if you go protest.  

 

We're all common people here on this discussion board and we are discussing what warnings the CDC and other health organizations have issues.  Sounding a loud or "doomsday" alarm obviously isn't just to motivate health officials.  

[Bob]

8 minutes ago, Hugh O'D said:

You're mixing up reports. The Health Organizations were saying high figures, one's like President Trump the low figures. He was the one who said it was beaten at 50,000 to 60.000, then said it wouldn't pass 70,000, actually he meant 80,000 etc. Rejecting health agencies because people who disagree with them turn out to be wrong is like (but not quite as severe) as rejecting the Bible because of the crimes of Christendom.

Health officials and Trump are collectively part of the Federal Govt, so they're all in the same boat. 

 

Quote

What exactly are you looking for Bob? You're basically complaining that people lived because of following the different Health Agencies advice. Please also remember, since this virus was new for everyone no one knew for certain how things were going to go and they're still learning. Put it another way. Are you saying that the FDS have made a complete mess up by imposing Lockdown's in the Bethels?  Added on since people are responding faster than I can type this.

It seems you're using the brothers to invalidate my opinions.

 

Quote

First wave of Spanish Flu was only a slightly more severe flu, second wave was the killer. They're saying that the second wave could be a much worse killer. That's all. I can't prove it will, anti lockdown advocate's can't prove it won't, but my son isn't playing in the local playground until the FDS says it's ok.

That's the beauty of living in a free world, I guess. 

Edited June 28, 2020 by Bob

[trottigy]

44 minutes ago, Bob said:

And if people don't think wrong projections have serious consequences, look at what happened in the beginning of Covid. The long discredited Imperial College study, said 2.2 million Americans would die. 

 

This sent people into panic because it was a new virus, and caused the shutdowns, which ruined thousands of people financially. The flaw in that study was that it assumed 2.2 million at the high end if no preventive measures were taken. So it was a bad projection, based on a faulty premise that the States and Federal Govt would allow us walk over dead bodies while going about our normal lives. 

 

So these wrong projections have serious consequences. 

Wasn't that the point - to say "IF the US does nothing millions could die"? And this is why the President Trump closed down the economy.

 

Had they said "It's likely only 130k will be dead by July because the US will surely shut off the economy for 45 days and then slowly open up" - I doubt they would have actually shut it all down.

 

With the above example it appears the US saved millions - so far.

 

Although sadly, it looks like the US is headed to more deaths than necessary. There is still 1 in 20 dying (5%) from this. And that is higher than they were guessing when it was only 3% at first and they said, "it's likely the death toll percentage will be much lower."

Edited June 28, 2020 by trottigy

[Bob]

3 minutes ago, Shawnster said:

But you do to get a reaction out of the populace.  I mean, just look at how they are reacting with the current levels of warnings.  No masks, refusing to wear masks, no social distancing, open everything back up, everyone pile in at the beach, don't worry about your health if you go protest.  

 

We're all common people here on this discussion board and we are discussing what warnings the CDC and other health organizations have issues.  Sounding a loud or "doomsday" alarm obviously isn't just to motivate health officials.  

Brother, this is interesting and I would seriously love your thoughts on this point, if you will:

 

Do you think these were adverse affects of locking an independent, nation and country down for three months basically? I am asking because Americans are independent, have a plethora of guarantee rights that they've gotten used to, and don't trust government.

 

I'm not defending what you said, but I think you need to know what sort of people you're dealing with and the consequences of dealing with them a certain way. So I think the hard lockdowns caused massive covid fatigue, so people are making up for the lost time.

 

Just asking..

 

 

[Shawnster]

 

13 minutes ago, Hugh O'D said:

1)Health officials don't impose Lockdowns and Quarantines, the Local and National Government does that. Studies say possibilities, the politicians must make decisions based on what is always going to be imperfect reasoning.

 

6 minutes ago, Bob said:

Health officials and Trump are collectively part of the Federal Govt, so they're all in the same boat. 

 

Yes and no.  Like Hugh said in the quote above - the health officials work for the politicians.  The politicians enact the laws.  Dr. Fauci for the US (or Dr. Acton here in Ohio) never gave direct orders to the populace.  They gave recommendations to their political leaders and those leaders gave the orders.  The fact that their recommendations are called health orders does not mean they carry political power.  All orders affecting you and me come from the government.

 

A government worker is not the same as representing the government.  Otherwise our favorite mail carrier member here @Todd komaniak would be in the same boat as the Federal Govt.

 

[Bob]

1 minute ago, Shawnster said:

 

Yes and no.  Like Hugh said in the quote above - the health officials work for the politicians.  The politicians enact the laws.  Dr. Fauci for the US (or Dr. Acton here in Ohio) never gave direct orders to the populace.  They gave recommendations to their political leaders and those leaders gave the orders.  The fact that their recommendations are called health orders does not mean they carry political power.  All orders affecting you and me come from the government.

 

A government worker is not the same as representing the government.  Otherwise our favorite mail carrier member here @Todd komaniak would be in the same boat as the Federal Govt.

 

Well, I don't mean to imply health officials order lockdowns, so that's never who I am referring to. Just for clarity, because I really hate semantics! 

[Shawnster]

9 minutes ago, Bob said:

Do you think these were adverse affects of locking an independent, nation and country down for three months basically? I am asking because Americans are independent, have a plethora of guarantee rights that they've gotten used to, and don't trust government.

 

The US might be the leader, but this might be the adverse affect of locking down independent people everywhere.  "I'm going to do what I want.  You can't tell me what to do.  You're infringing on my rights!" has been the loud push back.  

 

Are people over-reacting and going to the extreme opposite extreme because they were locked up for 3 months?  Is that why they crowded beaches and pubs?  Is that why the protests became so volatile and widespread around the world?  Maybe.  That could very well be part of it.  Stretch a rubber band so far and it will quickly snap the opposite direction upon release.  

 

I put more blame on this overreaction to the attitudes of the Last Days.  Unthankful, disloyal, not open to any agreement, headstrong, puffed up with pride.  

 

Lockdowns, masks, and social distancing are the best ways to fight a global pandemic of deadly proportions.  Living life as normal and as if there is no plague will only lead to ruin.  

[Hugh O'D]

25 minutes ago, Bob said:

Health officials and Trump are collectively part of the Federal Govt, so they're all in the same boat.

They're also part of Satan's world and Satan loves to watch his children scratch (Edit: each other's) eyes out so they're no more united than any other part of Satan's system. So, I do agree with you in being sceptical, but I also see the wide fisures and I don't blame one faction for what another faction does or says. (I work in a supermarket, part of a chain, people will come in expecting us to be one united organization, I know that two managers side by side won't be able to agree with each other and at times I have to use their internal fighting to get my own job done, I don't blame one manager for what another does though. and I especially don't blame a lower manager for having to carry out a higher manager's orders). EDIT to add that @Shawnster typed faster than me and his answer is much more complete.

 

25 minutes ago, Bob said:

It seems you're using the brothers to invalidate my opinions

 I'm a coward who hides behind others for my purposes.

 

 

17 minutes ago, Bob said:

Brother, this is interesting and I would seriously love your thoughts on this point, if you will:

 

Do you think these were adverse affects of locking an independent, nation and country down for three months basically? ... I think you need to know what sort of people you're dealing with and the consequences of dealing with them a certain way. So I think the hard lockdowns caused massive covid fatigue, so people are making up for the lost time.

 

Just asking..

 I don't think anyone is going to disagree with you there @Bob Satan's world is a restless sea that is unable to calm down, they were restrained by the lockdown but they're springing out as it releases (not just America, you can see it on the news from Britain and I'm seeing it in Ireland (Security Guard compained last week that the shoplifters were out in force, customers are also being increasingly rude and stupid in rushing into shops and forget about Social Distancing, etc)). But everything comes with a cost. We have to decide which we'll pay. During the Spanish Flu many carried on with normal activities and THAT is a major reason the death toll was so extreme. As brought out elsewhere in this Forum the Society was planning it's biggest Assembly of the year in Pittsburg in I think October but cancelled when the S.F. hit Pittsburg. Everything has a cost @Bob and afterwards someone will always complain about it.

9 minutes ago, Bob said:

I really hate semantics! 

You and me both Brother, you and me both. 

Edited June 28, 2020 by Hugh O'D

[Shawnster]

8 minutes ago, Bob said:

Well, I don't mean to imply health officials order lockdowns, so that's never who I am referring to. Just for clarity, because I really hate semantics! 

It's not just you.  May not have even been you.  I've seen many people get mad at the local health officials to the point they are suing these officials over the government lockdown decisions.