The Mysterious Coronavirus Spreading Worldwide

[daydream]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/13/opinion/activism-trump-masks-climate.html   Sept. 13, 2020

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Models now predict that the number of Americans killed by the virus could double between now and Jan. 1. According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington:

“We expect the daily death rate in the U.S., because of seasonality and declining public vigilance, to reach nearly 3,000 a day in December. Cumulative deaths expected by Jan. 1 are 415,090; this is 222,522 deaths from now until the end of the year.”

 

Right now much of the West Coast is ablaze with hellish scenes of orange skies, and yet too many of us entertain climate change deniers, or, perhaps worse, know well the gravity and precariousness of the situation and still haven’t changed our habits

 

[Hotteok]

https://www.google.co.kr/amp/s/news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-11/Hundreds-of-thousands-have-been-given-Chinese-COVID-19-vaccines-THnoo6BcFG/share_amp.html

[Lewis]

Interesting Article about this virus based on some studies done, If Covid-19 is seasonal and the predicted cases and death.

 

https://covid.us.org/2020/08/03/if-covid-19-is-seasonal-predicted-cases-and-deaths/

[Bob]

10 hours ago, Mclove said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/13/opinion/activism-trump-masks-climate.html   Sept. 13, 2020

 

I basically ignore predictions like that. Models are only as reliable as the assumptions they're based on. Deaths were projected at 2.2 million based on assumptions, downgraded to 240k based on assumptions, and now another doomsaying model.

 

This sort of stuff needs to stop. 

[Tortuga]

It seems that Covid-19 predictions are a lot like the stock market. Someone is always looking at graphs, making forecasts and recommendations, but no one really knows what will happen next.

[Lee49]

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/there-won-t-be-enough-covid-19-vaccines-till-2024-world-needs-15-bn-doses-adar-poonawalla-11600094640147.html

 

There won’t be enough Covid-19 vaccines till 2024, world needs 15 bn doses

 

  ....there won’t be enough Covid-19 vaccines available in the world till 2024 at the earliest, according to a media report on Monday.

“It’s going to take four to five years until everyone gets the vaccine on this planet," said Poonawalla to Financial Times.

The CEO of the world’s largest vaccine manufacturer has estimated that if the Covid-19 shot is a two-dose vaccine — such as measles or rotavirus — the world will need 15 billion doses, reported FT.

[Bob]

13 minutes ago, Lee49 said:

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/there-won-t-be-enough-covid-19-vaccines-till-2024-world-needs-15-bn-doses-adar-poonawalla-11600094640147.html

 

There won’t be enough Covid-19 vaccines till 2024, world needs 15 bn doses

 

  ....there won’t be enough Covid-19 vaccines available in the world till 2024 at the earliest, according to a media report on Monday.

“It’s going to take four to five years until everyone gets the vaccine on this planet," said Poonawalla to Financial Times.

The CEO of the world’s largest vaccine manufacturer has estimated that if the Covid-19 shot is a two-dose vaccine — such as measles or rotavirus — the world will need 15 billion doses, reported FT.

Yeah, its not realistic to expect 8 billion doses to be ready anytime soon. Makes sense. BUT... we don't need 8 billion doses to rid the world of COVID anyway. 

[Shawnster]

It isn't realistic to have any type of successful vaccine for a couple of years.  By successful I mean safe and effective over the long term.  

[Allabord4Jah]

TurkeyTurkeyUkraineUkraineFranceFranceSpainSpainSwedenSwedenGermanyGermanyFinlandFinlandNorwayNorwayPolandPolandItalyItalyUnited KingdomUnited KingdomRomaniaRomaniaBelarusBelarusGreeceGreeceBulgariaBulgariaIcelandIcelandHungaryHungaryAustriaAustriaSerbiaSerbiaLatviaLatviaCroatiaCroatiaSlovakiaSlovakiaEstoniaEstoniaDenmarkDenmarkMoldovaMoldovaMontenegroMontenegroCyprusCyprusAndorraAndorra

+

–

 

---

Confirmed
cases

 

1 to 10k

 

10k to 25k

 

25k to 50k

 

50k to 100k

 

100k+

Map updates hourly. Figures are as reported by governments and health authorities and may include probable positive cases and deaths.

 

(This article and figures from AP News/September 14, 2020)

[Bob]

2 hours ago, Shawnster said:

It isn't realistic to have any type of successful vaccine for a couple of years.  By successful I mean safe and effective over the long term.  

Well, there has never been such a world wide collaboration on a vaccine in human history. I think its possible given how many scientists are working together on this, and the sheer amount of unprecedented funding as well. 

[➕👇 ꓤꓱꓷꓠꓵ🎵Tone]

30 Million marker (reported)
Top 3 countries make up half

945,000 reported fatalities


Old (Downunder) Tone
 

Edited September 17, 2020 by Maʹher-shalʹal-hash-baz

[tekmantwo]

Just some more good news to throw in the mix:

 

Bacterial outbreak infects thousands after factory leak in China

https://flip.it/DDT1eL

 

I thought the timing, and causes, was interesting....

[CHecker]

Wasn't it suggested somewhere that there would be more diseases/viruses to come?

We live in a petri dish! 

Humans are incredibly filthy, it never fails to amaze me just how filthy. With Covid my buildings, where I work, they are constantly wiping down counters, knobs, handles & whatnot. When I go in to clean I spray it all down then go back and wipe everything off. My towels are black! How is that possible? But, sadly, is very true. No wonder sickness is rampant.

Then, last weekend, at work when I went into the restroom to clean there was a mouse trapped in the sink! Too slippery to get out. Made me think of how many times had that rodent walked around on the tables, counters and kitchen sink? Made washing everything much more important to me.

Edited September 17, 2020 by bagwell1987

[Lee49]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/17/europe/coronavirus-europe-who-second-wave-intl/index.html

 

WHO warns of 'very serious situation' in Europe, with 'alarming rates' of virus transmission

 

 "WHO regional director Hans Kluge said at a Thursday news conference that the increase in cases should serve as a warning of what is to come.

"Weekly cases have now exceeded those reported when the pandemic first peaked in Europe in March," Kluge said. "Last week, the region's weekly tally exceeded 300,000 patients."

[Bob]

3 hours ago, Lee49 said:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/17/europe/coronavirus-europe-who-second-wave-intl/index.html

 

WHO warns of 'very serious situation' in Europe, with 'alarming rates' of virus transmission

 

 "WHO regional director Hans Kluge said at a Thursday news conference that the increase in cases should serve as a warning of what is to come.

"Weekly cases have now exceeded those reported when the pandemic first peaked in Europe in March," Kluge said. "Last week, the region's weekly tally exceeded 300,000 patients."

What I find disturbing is that no one is considering that lockdowns have just delayed the spread, and now its just taking its natural course. Locking down delays the spread. Once you have wide seedings, you don't have much recourse outside of a vaccine. 

 

Once you release infected people, they infect each other. Common sense.

[JW-Ind]

An Idaho pastor skeptical of masks lands in the ICU for Covid-19
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/17/us/idaho-pastor-covid-masks-trnd/index.html

 

(CNN)A pastor in Idaho who called himself a "no-masker" during a service and repeatedly questioned the veracity of coronavirus case reporting is in the ICU after contracting Covid-19. 

Paul Van Noy, senior pastor at Candlelight Church in Coeur d'Alene, has spent two weeks in the hospital with a Covid-19 diagnosis, ministry coordinator Eric Reade confirmed to CNN. Five other church staff were infected with coronavirus, too, but they've all recovered, he said.

 

 

[BenJepthah]

35 minutes ago, Bob said:

What I find disturbing is that no one is considering that lockdowns have just delayed the spread, and now its just taking its natural course. Locking down delays the spread. Once you have wide seedings, you don't have much recourse outside of a vaccine. 

 

Once you release infected people, they infect each other. Common sense.

Yeah, this is pretty much what I figured would happen. 

[runner92]

1 hour ago, Bob said:

What I find disturbing is that no one is considering that lockdowns have just delayed the spread, and now its just taking its natural course. Locking down delays the spread. Once you have wide seedings, you don't have much recourse outside of a vaccine. 

 

Once you release infected people, they infect each other. Common sense.

And cause weakened immune systems. Our bodies are used to having contact with various bacteria and viruses so that we build some level of immunity. Keeping us cooped up away from each other doesn't allow for that. It really is just delaying the inevitable. 

[Bob]

36 minutes ago, runner92 said:

And cause weakened immune systems. Our bodies are used to having contact with various bacteria and viruses so that we build some level of immunity. Keeping us cooped up away from each other doesn't allow for that. It really is just delaying the inevitable. 

Yes, we need contact with other humans to fight off the "good" bacteria. Lockdowns only work when you catch an outbreak BEFORE it spreads, like Bethel did. Otherwise, you're not doing much in terms of stopping it.

[Hugh O'D]

On 9/17/2020 at 11:55 PM, Bob said:

What I find disturbing is that no one is considering that lockdowns have just delayed the spread, and now its just taking its natural course. Locking down delays the spread

Report by the Imperial College 16th March 2020

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

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The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed. We show that intermittent social distancing – triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers rebound.

From Gavi, The Vacine Alliance 25th March 2020

https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/why-coronavirus-lockdown-necessary

 

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Sample

this is all in an attempt to ‘flatten the curve’ or reduce infections and spread cases out over a longer time frame to avoid overwhelming health systems.

i.e. to prevent a situation where when people are brought to hospitals they get left to die because the wards and icu are all full already.

 

Adam Smith Institute May 4th, 2020. Please note that while this particular article is more blog like (but by a Doctor) but while he is opposed to the on-going lockdown he does highlight the reasons given for the lockdown.

 

https://www.adamsmith.org/despatches/what-is-the-purpose-of-lockdown

 

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Sample

what is the purpose of lockdown?

1. Protect the NHS and save lives by spreading the infection rate so that we do not overwhelm the NHS (“flattening the curve”)? This is what we were told at the start of lockdown. It implicitly this means that we expect most or at least many people to get the virus, but we can save lives by ensuring that we have the capacity to escalate their care all the way up and including intensive care. Also, implicitly, there will be some folk who get infected that will lose their lives no matter how intensive our medical interventions; or

2. Save lives by preventing infection until a vaccine is available or that infections go below some critical mass? Lives are effectively saved not by managing demand to the capacity of the NHS but by simply preventing infections through mass quarantining.

 

Washington Post May 26, 2020. Again, an Opinion Article but it again highlights what the purpose of the Lockdown was, and this by an opponent of Government strategy.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/26/covid-19-lockdown-has-served-its-purpose-its-time-end-it/

 

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The objective of the lockdown was never to stop every American from getting covid-19, which is impossible; it was to buy time to learn about the virus and prevent our health-care system from being overwhelmed

Finally Irelands Health Act 2020 which was signed into Law on March 25th, 2020.

http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/2020/act/1/enacted/en/html

 

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Purpose

in order to mitigate, where practicable, the effect of the spread of the disease known as Covid-19

mitigate, as brought out in other articles above does not mean to end, but to slow or suppress, or as the slogan was "To flatten the curve".

 

 

 Brother  @Bob I didn't even have to work to get those references. If you Google Flatten the Curve you'll get even more references where you don't even have to go looking to see what was the purpose of the Lockdown. It was to slow the spread of the Virus so that the Health services wouldn't get overwhelmed.  SLOW  not stop. Then you ask why no one thought that the Virus would start spreading again as the Lockdowns were lifted. Yet the above quotes show that this was already known. Yet you again and again proclaim this as some new truth despite the fact that it was already down in writing.

 

Now I understand that there were many people who thought "We'll lockdown for two weeks, catch up on Netflix and what not, and then the virus will all be gone". Ok. But that wasn't what was being publicly said by those dealing with the matter (ok, in Ireland we maybe had clearer direction, but most of the above quotes are NOT from Ireland, further the opinion pieces make it clear that from the start it was said that Lockdown was to "flatten the curve", to prevent the hospitals being overwhelmed).

 

And you know what Bob? In the main:

 

IT WAS A SUCCESS!!!!!!!!!

 

Most Hospital's were NOT overwhelmed (outside the disasters that first occured in Italy and Spain which was what prompted the Lockdowns in the first place).

 

How things should progress from here on? Don't ask me.

 

The Society of course is handling things slightly differently, they're maintaining the Lockdown until it's safe. They're not opening up the Branches or sending out the CO's or SP's because they know they'll just get infections. They are

 

On 9/17/2020 at 11:55 PM, Bob said:

considering that lockdowns have just delayed the spread

and are reacting accordingly.

 

BTW. I do agree with you that Governtments have, are and will make mistakes. They're only human and affected by Satan's misdirection after all. But that doesn't mean they haven't done some things right.

 

I've nothing more to say on Lockdowns here.

 

Agape to all.

 

[Bob]

16 minutes ago, Hugh O'D said:

Report by the Imperial College 16th March 2020

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

From Gavi, The Vacine Alliance 25th March 2020

https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/why-coronavirus-lockdown-necessary

 

i.e. to prevent a situation where when people are brought to hospitals they get left to die because the wards and icu are all full already.

 

Adam Smith Institute May 4th, 2020. Please note that while this particular article is more blog like (but by a Doctor) but while he is opposed to the on-going lockdown he does highlight the reasons given for the lockdown.

 

https://www.adamsmith.org/despatches/what-is-the-purpose-of-lockdown

 

 

Washington Post May 26, 2020. Again, an Opinion Article but it again highlights what the purpose of the Lockdown was, and this by an opponent of Government strategy.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/26/covid-19-lockdown-has-served-its-purpose-its-time-end-it/

 

Finally Irelands Health Act 2020 which was signed into Law on March 25th, 2020.

http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/2020/act/1/enacted/en/html

 

mitigate, as brought out in other articles above does not mean to end, but to slow or suppress, or as the slogan was "To flatten the curve".

 

 

 Brother  @Bob I didn't even have to work to get those references. If you Google Flatten the Curve you'll get even more references where you don't even have to go looking to see what was the purpose of the Lockdown. It was to slow the spread of the Virus so that the Health services wouldn't get overwhelmed.  SLOW  not stop. Then you ask why no one thought that the Virus would start spreading again as the Lockdowns were lifted. Yet the above quotes show that this was already known. Yet you again and again proclaim this as some new truth despite the fact that it was already down in writing.

 

Now I understand that there were many people who thought "We'll lockdown for two weeks, catch up on Netflix and what not, and then the virus will all be gone". Ok. But that wasn't what was being publicly said by those dealing with the matter (ok, in Ireland we maybe had clearer direction, but most of the above quotes are NOT from Ireland, further the opinion pieces make it clear that from the start it was said that Lockdown was to "flatten the curve", to prevent the hospitals being overwhelmed).

 

And you know what Bob? In the main:

 

IT WAS A SUCCESS!!!!!!!!!

 

Most Hospital's were NOT overwhelmed (outside the disasters that first occured in Italy and Spain which was what prompted the Lockdowns in the first place).

 

How things should progress from here on? Don't ask me.

 

The Society of course is handling things slightly differently, they're maintaining the Lockdown until it's safe. They're not opening up the Branches or sending out the CO's or SP's because they know they'll just get infections. They are

 

and are reacting accordingly.

 

BTW. I do agree with you that Governtments have, are and will make mistakes. They're only human and affected by Satan's misdirection after all. But that doesn't mean they haven't done some things right.

 

I've nothing more to say on Lockdowns here.

 

Agape to all.

 

The curve has been flatten in places like New York, and my State, Michigan, for weeks and weeks, and we are still partially locked down and New York is almost totally locked down, particularly, many businesses. 

 

This is political. 

Edited September 19, 2020 by Bob

[Hugh O'D]

15 minutes ago, Bob said:

curve has been flatten in ... my State, Michigan, for weeks and weeks,

You're daily new cases slumped end May to early July before going up. You've as many active cases as at the peak. While that could just be increased testing on a graph it doesn't look flattened. (You're death rate is great though, not so great for the deceased and their relatives but Hey!).

 

19 minutes ago, Bob said:

This is political.

Fine. So it's political. The new ruling party in Ireland has just imposed increased restrictions in my city too. But that doesn't mean

 

On 9/17/2020 at 11:55 PM, Bob said:

 no one is considering that lockdowns have just delayed the spread, and now its just taking its natural course.

If you had said "The only reason the Lockdown is continuing in a state is because the Governor belongs to a certain political party" I wouldn't have cared enough to argue the matter, although others might have pointed out the numbers to you. Again.

 

Regardless of who's in power the Imperial College article I quoted from March did say that Lockdowns would need to be reimposed "if or when case numbers rebound". And that's NOT political.

 

Agape.

[Old]

31 minutes ago, Bob said:

The curve has been flatten in places like New York, and my State, Michigan, for weeks and weeks, and we are still partially locked down and New York is almost totally locked down, particularly, many businesses. 

 

This is political. 

You make a statement and then post a determination with no supporting or opposing discussion. I am not questioning whether you are right or wrong, just questioning how you come to this conclusion. Politics are keeping you in lockup, you are not in lock up due to politics.

[Bob]

3 minutes ago, Old said:

You make a statement and then post a determination with no supporting or opposing discussion. I am not questioning whether you are right or wrong, just questioning how you come to this conclusion. Politics are keeping you in lockup, you are not in lock up due to politics.

Gotcha. Its not one link, since the media hides what “leftist” governors do. Basically I’ve been reading more middle to right commentary to arrive at this conclusion. 

[Bob]

8 minutes ago, Hugh O'D said:

You're daily new cases slumped end May to early July before going up. You've as many active cases as at the peak. While that could just be increased testing on a graph it doesn't look flattened. (You're death rate is great though, not so great for the deceased and their relatives but Hey!).

 

Fine. So it's political. The new ruling party in Ireland has just imposed increased restrictions in my city too. But that doesn't mean

 

If you had said "The only reason the Lockdown is continuing in a state is because the Governor belongs to a certain political party" I wouldn't have cared enough to argue the matter, although others might have pointed out the numbers to you. Again.

 

Regardless of who's in power the Imperial College article I quoted from March did say that Lockdowns would need to be reimposed "if or when case numbers rebound". And that's NOT political.

 

Agape.

Is this the same imperial College that said 2.2 million Americans would die, and who’s lead Modeler got caught cheating on his wife violating coronavirus protocols, and caught COVID-19 from his mistress?

 

They have no credibility with me.

Edited September 19, 2020 by Bob