The Mysterious Coronavirus Spreading Worldwide

[hatcheckgirl]

New Zealand, sadly has seen a reoccurrence of the virus. Before one opines the reasons for this, we need to look at what are the known facts, even at this early stage. One thing is that it is a different strain from what originally entered the country back in March. That means it is not possible that it was silently circulating in the population. This new strain is like the one in UK and Australia. So, it is true that NZ had eliminated the virus in their community.

 

Now this is where it gets murky. All sorts of other reasons are being put forward on how it has re-entered. And this in a highly political climate, as there is an election in a month’s time. Most probable evidence at this stage points to quarantine breach. Just how though is the mystery. If it was a failure of procedures it may reflect badly on the government, and so politics again enters the fray.

 

What this shows me here is that humans fail at making us secure. Somewhere there will be a human that breaks the rules, and wreaks it for everyone. Even a successful lockdown like what NZ had is going to be compromised by imperfect and lawless and selfish or clueless people.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-15/new-zealand-coronavirus-new-cases-elimination-ardern/12559070

[Shawnster]

7 hours ago, Bob said:

But the US was never in a total lockdown. And it shouldn't. You can't treat, say, Casper Wyoming the same as NYC.

That's why the lockdowns have never been on the Federal level.  That's the whole point of why the US government is structured as it is.  Individual states probably should have went complete lockdown early but they didn't.  

 

For all this talk about lockdowns not working, Bethel supports the idea that it does.  Bethel is on complete lock down and, to date, has zero cases.  Apparently complete lock down has worked in this case.

[Bob]

43 minutes ago, Shawnster said:

That's why the lockdowns have never been on the Federal level.  That's the whole point of why the US government is structured as it is.  Individual states probably should have went complete lockdown early but they didn't.  

I don't disagree. Early lockdowns would have worked. But they only work if you have early detection. You need both at the same time. 

 

 

43 minutes ago, Shawnster said:

For all this talk about lockdowns not working, Bethel supports the idea that it does.  Bethel is on complete lock down and, to date, has zero cases.  Apparently complete lock down has worked in this case.

Bethel locked down before they had a single case. It works well when you do it early like we did in Bethel. If you have an outbreak, lockdowns only slow it. 

[Hotteok]

So what is the ultimate cure for a pandemic like this?

Just carry on and wait until it disappears at some point in the future? 

[hatcheckgirl]

The 'ultimate cure' is the Kingdom.  Until then, it's very limited.  We all need to do the best we can in the circumstances we find ourselves in, including obeying directives from the superior authorities and following the good advice in the Bible about being shrewd.  That is how the Branches are going about it - shrewdly locking down before it infiltrated their communities.

 

For us, we need to be shrewd in our workplace, at school and out at the shops.  That means not lingering more outdoors than we need to.  Now is not the time to go "window shopping", for instance, especially as others are not caring about social distancing.  For our elderly and more vulnerable, it means stay indoors more.  For the workers, it means taking responsibility for your own health and insisting on physical distancing measures and appropriate cleaning routines. Etc, etc.

 

And if we do our best, we still have no guarantees, but we give ourselves more of a chance.  We hope and pray for our brothers and sisters.  But we certainly don't give up if measures such as lockdown haven't worked in our area.  It is an evolving situation, and there are things that work better than others.  And in the end, we leave this big stuff to Jehovah to solve.

[Todd komaniak]

The thing is once Bethel gets out of lockdown somebody's going to get it and it'll just be as it would have been anyway just delayed

[BenJepthah]

1 hour ago, Todd komaniak said:

The thing is once Bethel gets out of lockdown somebody's going to get it and it'll just be as it would have been anyway just delayed

I suspect this is true. But if they were to delay long enough they would theoretically be the only people in the hospital.

Edited August 15, 2020 by BenJepthah

[BenJepthah]

There are three things going on that aren’t really being factored in ( because they are more or less unknown) : The true number of asymptomatic people is unknown and unrated for,  The three months protective effect seen in the recovered , finally the Singapore study which showed that SARS survivors had T-Cell memory which would provide increased immunity even 17 years later. 
      These three factors could be why new cases by percentage are slowing . A form of unfactored herd immunity may be slowing the spread. 

[WilliamChew]

Thanks David. I think this is the study David mentioned:

 

https://www.duke-nus.edu.sg/allnews/sars-cov-2-specific-t-cell-immunity-in-recovered-patients-and-uninfected-individuals

 

The team tested subjects who recovered from COVID-19 and found the presence of SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells in all of them, which suggests that T cells play an important role in this infection. Importantly, the team showed that patients who recovered from SARS 17 years ago after the 2003 outbreak, still possess virus-specific memory T cells and displayed cross-immunity to SARS-CoV-2.

 

“Our team also tested uninfected healthy individuals and found SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells in more than 50 percent of them. This could be due to cross-reactive immunity obtained from exposure to other coronaviruses, such as those causing the common cold, or presently unknown animal coronaviruses.

 

It is important to understand if this could explain why some individuals are able to better control the infection,” said Professor Antonio Bertoletti, from Duke-NUS’ Emerging Infectious Diseases (EID) programme, who is the corresponding author of this study.

[Shawnster]

2 hours ago, Todd komaniak said:

The thing is once Bethel gets out of lockdown somebody's going to get it and it'll just be as it would have been anyway just delayed

We'll see.  I would not be surprised though if Kingdom Halls open up before Bethel opens up.  Bethel might stay locked down longer than anywhere else.  Just speculating.

[Shawnster]

Fred Hutch: 80% of people infected do not spread COVID-19; super spreaders driving transmission

 

https://www.seattlepi.com/coronavirus/article/fred-hutch-study-super-spreaders-driving-covid-19-15476005.php

 

https://www.myclallamcounty.com/2020/08/13/fred-hutch-study-blames-transmission-of-covid-19-on-super-spreaders/

 

A new report from Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center is giving researchers a better understanding of how and when person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 occurs, with findings showing that 80% of those infected will not spread the virus, laying the blame of transmission largely on gatherings.

 

The preliminary research, conducted by epidemiologists and infectious disease physicians, shows that people with COVID-19 only shed enough viral load to be contagious for a brief period of time: one to two days.

 

These brief periods when an infected person is most contagious is known as super spreading, and researchers believe that it is now driving the pandemic.

[Bob]

3 hours ago, Shawnster said:

We'll see.  I would not be surprised though if Kingdom Halls open up before Bethel opens up.  Bethel might stay locked down longer than anywhere else.  Just speculating.

Totally agree on that speculation. The organization is ran from Bethel. I cannot imagine them ending the lockdown anytime soon. 

[Lewis]

CDC now says Covid immunity may only last 3 months. CDC also suggests Covid-19 survivors should not get tested again or wait 3 months before getting tested.

 

 

Scientists initially said that coronavirus immunity might match the immunity we get from the other human coronaviruses that cause common colds. That’s anywhere from six to 12 months, and that’s how long we expect vaccines to last as well. Recent data showed that neutralizing antibodies may disappear from the bloodstream within three months, but the immune system also has backup T cells that can kill the virus upon reinfection by kickstarting the production of antibodies. Those cells live longer than antibodies, though it’s unclear how long their lifespan is. It’s also believed that exposure to human coronaviruses that cause common colds provides some protection against the virus.

 

https://bgr.com/2020/08/15/coronavirus-immunity-after-infection-cdc-3-months/?fbclid=IwAR1_Jh0bhbMdVRak3GupoJwicgmHre88YqYc0xFAgvj2cfcPv4UzBJ9fUA4

[Amygdala]

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02278-5

 

 

Quote

 

How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond

This coronavirus is here for the long haul — here’s what scientists predict for the next months and years.

 

 

[BenJepthah]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-lockdowns-usher-in-the-new-roaring-20s-11597429525
      I guess this was inevitable. Now if only the governments would just make it illegal for people who have COVID to go to illegal black market party venues. 

[Shawnster]

44 minutes ago, BenJepthah said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-lockdowns-usher-in-the-new-roaring-20s-11597429525
      I guess this was inevitable. Now if only the governments would just make it illegal for people who have COVID to go to illegal black market party venues. 

Article is behind a pay wall.  Can you summarize the main points?

[BenJepthah]

21 minutes ago, Shawnster said:

Article is behind a pay wall.  Can you summarize the main points?

Basically because some areas have shut down bars , nightclubs, etc etc. a new form of Speak easy and underground nightclub economy is developing. 

[Bob]

15 hours ago, BenJepthah said:

Basically because some areas have shut down bars , nightclubs, etc etc. a new form of Speak easy and underground nightclub economy is developing. 

I am not surprised. During the Prohibition Era, illegal and under bootlegging came to prominence. Its best to allow these to operate, in a limited fashion if possible, so that the government can properly regulate it, depending on the the activity, of course. 

[runner92]

I'm sorry but this no longer makes sense to me. How long are we supposed to stay in the house? Are they even trying to find a treatment for this thing? Why are people expecting a vaccine to fix everything when they can't even put out a fool-proof flu shot each year? 

 

I'm just really tired of being in the house with no end in sight. 

Edited August 17, 2020 by runner92

[Bob]

1 minute ago, runner92 said:

I'm sorry but this no longer makes sense to me. How long are we supposed to stay in the house? Are they even trying to find a treatment for this thing? Why are people expecting a vaccine to fix everything when they can't even put out a fool-proof flu shot each year? 

 

I'm just really tired of being in the house with no end in sight. 

You're not required to stay in the house. Not in the US anyway.

Edited August 17, 2020 by Bob

[runner92]

Just now, Bob said:

You're not required to stay in the house. Not in the US anyway.

That's what the branch is saying. Stay home. I go out in my yard and go for walks, but that's about it. 

[Bob]

Just now, runner92 said:

That's what the branch is saying. Stay home. I go out in my yard and go for walks, but that's about it. 

The recommend it, of course. But they don't require it.

[runner92]

Just now, Bob said:

The recommend it, of course. But they don't require it.

I know, but I'm trying to listen. I don't want to get sick. I don't want my family to get sick. Which is why I'm wondering what they are even doing about treatment for the virus instead of banking on a vaccine. 

[Bob]

3 minutes ago, runner92 said:

I know, but I'm trying to listen. I don't want to get sick. I don't want my family to get sick. Which is why I'm wondering what they are even doing about treatment for the virus instead of banking on a vaccine. 

I understand. But the virus is primarily spread through person-to-person contact. All I can tell you is what we do. We still go on vacation (traveled across the country last month for ten days) we still do activities outside the house. 

 

Just take seriously all the precautions, and you'll be fine. 

[bohemian]

@runner92

Gabby.  keep following the faithful slave and you’ll be finer.

I am locked down in my home and grateful that I am safe.  Yes, it is tiring, but remember the video recently of the tour at world headquarters - the korean brothers in prison had such a tiny cell to be in!  At least my home is larger than that!
 

Brother Morris said not to develop a casual attitude to this pandemic.  Our lives my depend on our obedience at this time even if it just training us to be obedient in the near future when the instructions may even appear to make no sense at all.