2018 Service Year Report

[Thomas Walker]

3 hours ago, jwhess said:

 

So there were many years that the truth reach more hearts and it was done by half the number of workers we have today. 

 

 

Sorry, my bad. I meant 'since I started running this equation'. I don't actually remember which year that was.

 

3 hours ago, jwhess said:

 I was thinking about the numbers.  Would i believe the end was closer when the number baptized went to 500,000 for the year or when the number went to zero? 

 

Interesting question. The missing element in the math is: How many are leaving? The totals never account for people who go inactive or who get given the hook. Could be that rate has gone up too. Heaven knows it hasn't gotten any easier to be a JW.

[Bryan]

For me, the number of Memorial partakers has no real significance or impact, as I don't have any contribution to its increase or its decrease, neither does it have any impact on my service. That's a figure that is completely controlled and managed by Jehovah. It will be significant only if the Faithful slave connects the increase to any Bible verse or a prophecy. Till then, all's well.

 

Personally, I look at the number of publishers, hours, Bible studies and Pioneers, because that's where my service to Jehovah and my regularity of reporting on time plays an important part. 

[jwhess]

32 minutes ago, Thomas Walker said:

Interesting question. The missing element in the math is: How many are leaving? The totals never account for people who go inactive or who get given the hook. Could be that rate has gone up too. Heaven knows it hasn't gotten any easier to be a JW.

Br. Matt, you could try looking at the increase in publishers for the year (compared to last year) and subtract that number from the number baptized.  That might give you a clue as to those who left.  However, they could have died and I don't know if you would use the "peak" publishers or the "average publisher" count.  Plus the average regular publishers do not count any new ones starting in the last 6 months (since they are "irregular" publishers until that time).  Are these counted in the "average"?  And publishers can be "unbaptized" as well.

 

So if the publisher count went up 175,000 and the baptized count was 250,000 then the number missing would be 75,000.  But no really reliable count that way.  Sorry...😉

 

 

Edited December 25, 2018 by jwhess

[luisenriquereyes]

I created a Google Spreadsheet to help sort and filter the data.

 

You can use this link to open:  bit.ly/2018CountryTerritoryReports

 

To sort or filter the data:

 

1. Click row # 3 to highlight the entire row

2. Click Data menu

3. Click Filter views...

4. Click Create new temporary filter view

 

 

 

Then click on the green triangles  >  

 

to sort the columns by lowest to highest (A > Z) or highest to lowest (Z > A) or filter by condition or values.

 

 

 

 

Please let me know if you have any questions.

 

 

Edited December 25, 2018 by luisenriquereyes

[➕👇 ꓤꓱꓷꓠꓵ🎵Tone]

I created a Google Spreadsheet to help sort and filter the data.
 
You can use this link to open:  bit.ly/2018CountryTerritoryReports
 
To sort or filter the data:
 
1. Click row # 3 to highlight the entire row
2. Click Data menu
3. Click Filter views...
4. Click Create new temporary filter view
 

 
 
Then click on the green triangles  >  
 
to sort the columns by lowest to highest (A > Z) or highest to lowest (Z > A) or filter by condition or values.
 
 
 

 
Please let me know if you have any questions.
 
 

Thanks for that!
I was trying to do some sorting in my head and I think I broke it!
Ty.

Older {waiting for wiser}

[1MKnight]

12 hours ago, jwhess said:

Br. Matt, you could try looking at the increase in publishers for the year (compared to last year) and subtract that number from the number baptized.  That might give you a clue as to those who left.  However, they could have died and I don't know if you would use the "peak" publishers or the "average publisher" count.  Plus the average regular publishers do not count any new ones starting in the last 6 months (since they are "irregular" publishers until that time).  Are these counted in the "average"?  And publishers can be "unbaptized" as well.

 

So if the publisher count went up 175,000 and the baptized count was 250,000 then the number missing would be 75,000.  But no really reliable count that way.  Sorry...😉

 

 

I think if you wanted to get a shaky, rough idea of how many left, you'd have to look at Total Publishers, then find some world-wide statistics on percentage of deaths per year out of the population. Calculate the discrepancy between last year's peak publishers and this years newly baptized and subtract the approximate deaths and you'd get a slightly accurate representation. 

4 hours ago, luisenriquereyes said:

I created a Google Spreadsheet to help sort and filter the data.

 

You can use this link to open:  bit.ly/2018CountryTerritoryReports

 

To sort or filter the data:

 

1. Click row # 3 to highlight the entire row

2. Click Data menu

3. Click Filter views...

4. Click Create new temporary filter view

 

 

 

Then click on the green triangles  >  

 

to sort the columns by lowest to highest (A > Z) or highest to lowest (Z > A) or filter by condition or values.

 

 

 

 

Please let me know if you have any questions.

 

 

Ahh, yes. Complex charts and graphs to help us understand and use the other complex charts and graphs 😉🤣

JK. Thanks for the chart  

[1MKnight]

37 minutes ago, 1MKnight said:

I think if you wanted to get a shaky, rough idea of how many left, you'd have to look at Total Publishers, then find some world-wide statistics on percentage of deaths per year out of the population. Calculate the discrepancy between last year's peak publishers and this years newly baptized and subtract the approximate deaths and you'd get a slightly accurate representation. 

2017 Total Pubs: 8,457,107

2018 bap: 281,744

 

This should have equaled: 8,738,851

 

2018 Total pubs: 8,579,909

Discrepancy of: 158,942

 

Worldwide death-rate: 8 deaths/1,000 population (0.80%)

 

67,657 deaths (rounded up) worldwide (based on 2017 numbers).

The above subtracted from the discrepancy: 91,285 newly inactive ones.

 

I don't have anyway to figure out how many of these would be disfellowhipped vs inactive.

 

Subtracting that from newly baptized we still get a "surplus" of 190,459.

 

Quite a large growth in spite of "losing some", and we see the need to encourage our brothers and sisters and reach out to 'weaker ones' while we have the chance.  

[jwhess]

A few years ago, I had a recorded number of those disfellowshipped as just over 100,000 that year.  So it appears that the "rough" calculations are approximately correct. More or Less...

 

Maybe our clean living and political neutrality cause us to exhibit a lower death rate...

[Sepie93]

With all respect to everyone who is reacting in this topic, I have to admit that I think that this topic is missing it's goal..

Yesterday the organisation provided us with the great numbers of all countries and territories in which we preach. The reason the brothers are providing this report is stated beautifully in the Bible: Mark 6:30.

Now back to this topic.
When you just scroll through all the messages, you'll notice that there are a few subjects that are being discussed. Ofcourse it isn't wrong to discuss those things, but is that really where we need to focus on in the first place? Is that what the brothers had in mind when they provided us with these statistics?

Maybe I'm just curious, but what encouraged you in this report? What did you noticed?

I hope I didn't offend anyone with this message, but let us help each other to focus on things what really builds up

Verstuurd vanaf mijn SM-G903F met Tapatalk

[KingDavid]

With all respect to everyone who is reacting in this topic, I have to admit that I think that this topic is missing it's goal..

Yesterday the organisation provided us with the great numbers of all countries and territories in which we preach. The reason the brothers are providing this report is stated beautifully in the Bible: Mark 6:30.

Now back to this topic.
When you just scroll through all the messages, you'll notice that there are a few subjects that are being discussed. Ofcourse it isn't wrong to discuss those things, but is that really where we need to focus on in the first place? Is that what the brothers had in mind when they provided us with these statistics?

Maybe I'm just curious, but what encouraged you in this report? What did you noticed?

I hope I didn't offend anyone with this message, but let us help each other to focus on things what really builds up

Verstuurd vanaf mijn SM-G903F met Tapatalk

So it is with a collection of different personalities. Everyone has different preferences and interests. There is no THE Jehovah's Witness. The preaching ministry is important, but we were created so that the deep truths of God make us happy. We should learn to love different perspectives rather than unify them all. If we only talk about the most important things, is the complexity of life not lost to us?

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[➕👇 ꓤꓱꓷꓠꓵ🎵Tone]

Any chance you could convert it to Excel? I cannot manipulate the chart. I tried to save it, but it it only came through as a pdf. @luisenriquereyes

Just Older

[Bob]

3 hours ago, Sepie93 said:

With all respect to everyone who is reacting in this topic, I have to admit that I think that this topic is missing it's goal..

I somewhat agree with you here. The tendency appears to be that we could be judging our success based on the size of our wallets, or in this context, growth rates and baptisms. I have to admit I did not even bother to look at the number of Bible studies conducted and hours we spent preaching -- I went right to whether we have positive or negative increases in membership, as if nothing else matters.

 

Of course, we all enjoy seeing membership growth, but our success is predicated on how effectively we are preaching the message Jesus preached. We can loosen our standards and dilute the message and have tens of millions of members in no time, but we would be failing to do what God wants.

 

 

[1MKnight]

5 hours ago, jwhess said:

it appears that the "rough" calculations are approximately correct. More or Less... 

*high-fives self* 

Quote

Maybe our clean living and political neutrality cause us to exhibit a lower death rate...

*high-fives self again for clean living*

 

[Ferb]

On 12/24/2018 at 8:13 PM, KingDavid said:

Don't you think it has any meaning if the number of anointed ones increases significantly towards the end of this system? I find it very interesting.

That would be interesting, but the figures only show that the number of memorial partakers increases significantly towards the end of this system, which doesn't really tell us anything as far as I can see.

 

When we've had visitors at our Memorial who were Catholics etc., they have partaken of the emblems.  Our elders don't count them in the statistics.  But I know elders in other congregations who would.  I also know of an elder who conducts a memorial with some older ones who suffer with dementia, and who realistically don't know what they're doing but just eat and drink whatever they see in front of them - but out of plain literal accuracy, he reports them as partakers.  To simplify, there will be some unknown percentage of memorial attenders who are counted as partakers without being of the annointed.

 

Now, if we assume that percentage to be constant (though a lot of things may influence it, and in any case it won't be precisely constant so this would just be an approximation) then the number of partakers would equal that fraction multiplied by the memoral attendance plus the actual annointed: p = fm + a

 

Although we don't know the scale (since we don't know the value of f), we certainly know that the shape of the graph of fm against time looks like this:

 

And we would probably have assumed in the past that that graph of a against time looks like this:

 

If so, then the graph of fm+a, or p, the number of memorial partakers, against time, will indeed look like this:

 

Which is much what the graph of memorial partakers showed.  Now, it should be emphasised that we don't actually know that the graph of a against t took that shape, or that the value of f is of such a scale as to make the values of fm comparable to the values of a.  It simply is still plausible.  (I've tried to think of how to estimate the value of f, such as by least squares regression, but with so many unknowns it doesn't seem possible.  If we even knew that a followed an approximate geometric decay and hence could be modelled against t then it might be possible - but w16 p26 par15 would suggest that even that would be an unreliable assumption.  All that's shown here is that it still could be the case.)

 

The memorial figures don't demonstrate that the number of annointed on earth is increasing.  Of course, this analysis, with it's several unreliable assumptions, doesn't show that they aren't.  The point is, as I said in my first paragraph, we can't really tell.

 

[Bek]

It is really sad that so many people get disfellowshipped.  I wonder how many of them eventually come back. 

 

The good news is that Africa is seeing explosive growth. I was very surprised by growth rates in Zambia. Incredible!   

 

Does anyone know why some countries do not have percentage increase numbers in the report? 

 

 

Edited December 26, 2018 by Bek

[luisenriquereyes]

12 hours ago, TonyWenz said:

Any chance you could convert it to Excel? I cannot manipulate the chart. I tried to save it, but it it only came through as a pdf. @luisenriquereyes

Just Older
 

Yes it can be converted to Excel. Click...

 

1. File menu

2. Download as

3. Microsoft Excel (.xlsx)

 

 

If these steps don't work the file is attached below.

2018 Country and Territory Reports.xlsx

[MikeyRo]

2 hours ago, Bek said:

Does anyone know why some countries do not have percentage increase numbers in the report? 

Countries without any number of increase or decrease have 0% increase/decrease, i.e. the actual figure is less in absolute value than 0.5%, which rounded to the nearest integer is zero.

[Bruceq]

On 12/24/2018 at 3:52 PM, KingDavid said:

w16 January pp. 22-27:

"During the last days, Jehovah has continued to select those who will make up the 144,000. If he chooses to wait until late into that period to select some for that privilege, who are we to question his wisdom? (Isa. 45:9; Dan. 4:35; read Romans 9:11, 16.)"

https://wol.jw.org/en/wol/d/r1/lp-e/2016046#h=26

I'm just interested in what's going on. If it were completely meaningless, the brothers would not collect the number

Gesendet von meinem TA-1012 mit Tapatalk
 

Yes the point is not the exact number since they are only partakers and not necessarily anointed. BUT the fact remains that an increase has occurred that did not occur for decades. Why? Perhaps {And this is mere conjecture} but there  are Scriptures that seems to indicate a gathering of anointed ones just prior to the beginning of the Great Tribulation where we are NOW. 

 

⁹  "When he opened the fifth seal, I saw underneath the altarp the souls*q of those slaughtered because of the word of God and because of the witness they had given.r¹⁰  They shouted with a loud voice, saying: “Until when, Sovereign Lord, holy and true,s are you refraining from judging and avenging our blood on those who dwell on the earth?”t ¹¹  And a white robe was given to each of them,u and they were told to rest a little while longer, until the number was filled of their fellow slaves and their brothers who were about to be killed as they had been.v¹²  And I saw when he opened the sixth seal, and a great earthquake occurred; and the sun became black as sackcloth made of hair,* and the entire moon became as blood...Rev 6:9-12.

 

   Notice that just before the "Great Earthquake" which is the Great Tribulation since it mentions the exact events mentioned in Matt. 24 - that it says that the "NUMBER WAS FILLED". So as the Watchtower has stated in January 2016 that Jehovah can wait until late in the period to select anointed ones. This to me is encouraging since it shows we are very close to when the selection will end and they are sealed just BEFORE the Great Tribulation begins.

 

     Also in the report is encouraging to see the increases in Africa and South America. And how about the Democratic rep. of Congo WOW only 230,000 publishers but 1,220,000 memorial attendance - that is the biggest increase.

    Of course just before GT begins we should expect the amounts to level off or even decrease a bit worldwide as those "rightly disposed" are finally gathered and the end arrives.

 

James 5 :7,8 :"⁷  Be patient then, brothers, until the presence of the Lord.f Look! The farmer keeps waiting for the precious fruit of the earth, exercising patience over it until the early rain and the late rain arrive.g ⁸  You too exercise patience;h make your hearts firm, because the presence of the Lord has drawn close."

Edited December 26, 2018 by Bruceq

[Tortuga]

4 hours ago, Ferb said:

If so, then the graph of fm+a, or p, the number of memorial partakers, against time, will indeed look like this:

You made a happy face!

[Catia leitao]

5 hours ago, Bek said:

It is really sad that so many people get disfellowshipped.  I wonder how many of them eventually come back. 

 

The good news is that Africa is seeing explosive growth. I was very surprised by growth rates in Zambia. Incredible!   

 

Does anyone know why some countries do not have percentage increase numbers in the report? 

 

 

I did came back. After 8 years away I came back. N to be honest I never should have left. So much I missed. I love Jehovah more than anything. 

 

[KingDavid]

Yes the point is not the exact number since they are only partakers and not necessarily anointed. BUT the fact remains that an increase has occurred that did not occur for decades. Why? Perhaps {And this is mere conjecture} but there  are Scriptures that seems to indicate a gathering of anointed ones just prior to the beginning of the Great Tribulation where we are NOW. 
 
⁹  "When he opened the fifth seal, I saw underneath the altarp the souls*q of those slaughtered because of the word of God and because of the witness they had given.r¹⁰  They shouted with a loud voice, saying: “Until when, Sovereign Lord, holy and true,s are you refraining from judging and avenging our blood on those who dwell on the earth?”t ¹¹  And a white robe was given to each of them,u and they were told to rest a little while longer, until the number was filled of their fellow slaves and their brothers who were about to be killed as they had been.v¹²  And I saw when he opened the sixth seal, and a great earthquake occurred; and the sun became black as sackcloth made of hair,* and the entire moon became as blood...Rev 6:9-12.
 
   Notice that just before the "Great Earthquake" which is the Great Tribulation since it mentions the exact events mentioned in Matt. 24 - that it says that the "NUMBER WAS FILLED". So as the Watchtower has stated in January 2016 that Jehovah can wait until late in the period to select anointed ones. This to me is encouraging since it shows we are very close to when the selection will end and they are sealed just BEFORE the Great Tribulation begins.
 
     Also in the report is encouraging to see the increases in Africa and South America. And how about the Democratic rep. of Congo WOW only 230,000 publishers but 1,220,000 memorial attendance - that is the biggest increase.
    Of course just before GT begins we should expect the amounts to level off or even decrease a bit worldwide as those "rightly disposed" are finally gathered and the end arrives.
 
James 5 :7,8 :"⁷  Be patient then, brothers, until the presence of the Lord.f Look! The farmer keeps waiting for the precious fruit of the earth, exercising patience over it until the early rain and the late rain arrive.g ⁸  You too exercise patience;h make your hearts firm, because the presence of the Lord has drawn close."

That's a good point. The four angels (Revelation 7:1-3) only hold back the winds of great tribulation until the anointed ones are sealed. It is quite possible, therefore, that the increase has a meaning. Of course, it may as well be insignificant.

The late rain from James 5:7 is currently explained differently. As far as I know, the Adventists refer this text to a late outpouring of the Holy Spirit. Which, of course, does not mean that a brighter light will fall on this path later. Jehovah's people always have the bigger picture in mind.

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[Bob]

7 hours ago, Bek said:

Does anyone know why some countries do not have percentage increase numbers in the report?  

No one really knows or sure. Growth tends to ebb and flow anyway. Some countries are less religious than others, and those people don't have an interest in religion or discussing it. Some are scared away from us. Some only talk to us when they going through stuff, and when they solve the issue, they see no need for us. Or there are cases in which we simply haven't reach some people.

 

That's why we keep going to the people.

[Katty]

10 hours ago, Ferb said:

That would be interesting, but the figures only show that the number of memorial partakers increases significantly towards the end of this system, which doesn't really tell us anything as far as I can see.

 

When we've had visitors at our Memorial who were Catholics etc., they have partaken of the emblems.  Our elders don't count them in the statistics.  But I know elders in other congregations who would.  I also know of an elder who conducts a memorial with some older ones who suffer with dementia, and who realistically don't know what they're doing but just eat and drink whatever they see in front of them - but out of plain literal accuracy, he reports them as partakers.  To simplify, there will be some unknown percentage of memorial attenders who are counted as partakers without being of the annointed.

 

Now, if we assume that percentage to be constant (though a lot of things may influence it, and in any case it won't be precisely constant so this would just be an approximation) then the number of partakers would equal that fraction multiplied by the memoral attendance plus the actual annointed: p = fm + a

 

Although we don't know the scale (since we don't know the value of f), we certainly know that the shape of the graph of fm against time looks like this:

 

And we would probably have assumed in the past that that graph of a against time looks like this:

 

If so, then the graph of fm+a, or p, the number of memorial partakers, against time, will indeed look like this:

 

Which is much what the graph of memorial partakers showed.  Now, it should be emphasised that we don't actually know that the graph of a against t took that shape, or that the value of f is of such a scale as to make the values of fm comparable to the values of a.  It simply is still plausible.  (I've tried to think of how to estimate the value of f, such as by least squares regression, but with so many unknowns it doesn't seem possible.  If we even knew that a followed an approximate geometric decay and hence could be modelled against t then it might be possible - but w16 p26 par15 would suggest that even that would be an unreliable assumption.  All that's shown here is that it still could be the case.)

 

The memorial figures don't demonstrate that the number of annointed on earth is increasing.  Of course, this analysis, with it's several unreliable assumptions, doesn't show that they aren't.  The point is, as I said in my first paragraph, we can't really tell.

 

Putting that Maths degree to good use. Good job dear

5 hours ago, Tortuga said:

You made a happy face!

Laughed at this way harder that I probably should have

[Andross]

I must have contributed hundreds of hours during the Service Year. If you go over 100 it's plural.

[Gi-Gi]

On 12/24/2018 at 12:24 PM, KingDavid said:

Memorial partakers Diagram

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I’m not sure I understand this chart my brother? What Does it show?