When will the Pandemic officially be over?

[New World Explorer]

1 minute ago, Tortuga said:

The World Health Organization officially declared the Pandemic, so I assume the WHO will be the organization that officially declares when it is over. I'm interested in the metrics they will use to make that decision. Theoretically there should be data that could be monitored to forecast when they will make that announcement.

Yes, but what I am saying..this must be "felt" by people. Dry announcement will not decide when pandemic is over.  

So the announcement will reinforce what is already felt on the ground. (I don't think we can separate those two groups) 

When I will be sitting in a cafe in Mumbai then I will know for sure that pandemic is over LOL 

[Tortuga]

20 minutes ago, New World Explorer said:

Yes, but what I am saying..this must be "felt" by people. Dry announcement will not decide when pandemic is over

Apples and oranges. The original question was about the data used to make the official announcement. Whether or not people agree with it is a separate topic.

[hatcheckgirl]

Borders are still closed. Until the government feels it is “safe” to open up, then we'll know the pandemic is over.  For that to happen, 

1. Most people will have to be vaccinated within the country

2. the rest of the world also would have to reach some minimum level of vaccination

3. Safeguards would have to be in place to put out any “spot-fires”, like we have in Australia/NZ/Singapore - contact tracing and ongoing testing.

4. A very effective back-up plan like proper quarantine facilities to manage outbreaks so life can continue “as normally as possible” for everyone else.

 

But basically, there isn’t going to be a “going back to how it was before”. The virus is here until the NW, and governments will just be managing it better (maybe) going forward… Timing? At least another year, if not more. And that’s basically because of the greed in this world of not sharing the vaccine with poorer nations. The UN has said this repeatedly, and it will slow down opening up. https://www.un.org/press/en/2021/ecosoc7039.doc.htm

 

[Qapla]

It would seem that the WHO will look at herd immunity percentage, rate of increase/decrease in new cases and deaths.

 

These would seem to be the first stats that they would use before they look at how "ready" people are to return to normal.

 

[Dantheman136]

6 hours ago, Tortuga said:

Perfect! That's what I was looking for 🤣

Guess we had to go coast to coast for that one.🤣

[New World Explorer]

8 hours ago, Tortuga said:

Apples and oranges. The original question was about the data used to make the official announcement. Whether or not people agree with it is a separate topic.

I did not know that you only consider bureaucratic view/perspective, and agency that determines that ...sorry. 

[carlos]

21 hours ago, Tortuga said:

Then what is the official definition that the pandemic is over? Who determines when the global pandemic is over? What are they looking for? Is it a worldwide announcement?  

WHO is the organism that declared the pandemic, so I guess they will announce when it's over. It's true there is not much public information about the factors to declare a pandemic. I found this on a newspaper regarding WHO's declaration of covid19 a “public health emergency of international concern” (=pandemic).

 

Quote

 

1. Is the outbreak unusual or unexpected? With a never-before-seen virus like the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, the answer was yes.

2. Does the outbreak have implications for health beyond a national border? When the emergency was declared, there were dozens of reported cases on four continents, so the answer was another yes.

3. Does the outbreak require immediate international action? Since airport screenings and aid money were needed to attempt to contain the virus’ spread, the answer was once again yes.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-02-06/what-is-a-pandemic-coronavirus

 

In view of that, it would seem the pandemic will be over when the virus is no longer causing serious trouble in different continents to the degree that special measures have to be taken (masks, social distancing, screens...). Of course, that is not the same as saying the virus will be over. There can be countries still fighting it as an epidemic but without affecting the whole world.

 

On the other hand, the end of the pandemic or even epidemic doesn't imply zero cases. It simply means there are no more cases than usual. Covid19 is a new virus, so there is no "usual" yet, but probably a number of cases will exist every year that will be considered normal.

 

From a historical viewpoint, pandemics and epidemics usually lasted around three years until things went back to normal.

 

 

[Dustparticle]

Here is the latest: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/07/china-guangzhou-delta-covid-variant.html

[Friends just call me Ross]

1 hour ago, carlos said:

In view of that, it would seem the pandemic will be over when the virus is no longer causing serious trouble in different continents to the degree that special measures have to be taken (masks, social distancing, screens...). Of course, that is not the same as saying the virus will be over. There can be countries still fighting it as an epidemic but without affecting the whole world.

Yup.  I believe it all hinges on the virulence of the virus.

 

No place on earth seems isolated anymore. 

 

Countries are too interconnected these days by travel and tourism. 

 

Someone blows up a two-holer in some remote part of the world and an American tourist is likely to have been in it at the time.

 

 

Also, viruses and bugs don't respect borders.

 

If this septic system of things were to go on much longer,  future pandemics might even begin to overlap one another.

 

But we've been given some Good News to share.💜💜💜

 

Divine Intervention is on the way! 👍

 

Our Great God, Jehovah, will save the day. 

 

 

 

[carlos]

On 6/21/2021 at 3:17 PM, Friends just call me Ross said:

No place on earth seems isolated anymore. 

 

Countries are too interconnected these days by travel and tourism. 

 

Someone blows up a two-holer in some remote part of the world and an American tourist is likely to have been in it at the time.

This is very true. If covid19 had come a few centuries ago it would have taken decades for it to arrive from China to Europe, and then the rest of the world. In our days it took a couple months.

 

On the other hand, there are diseases that are endemic in some areas but not in the rest of the world. A case that caught my attention was the polio. During most of the 20th century polio made ravages throughout the world, killing millions and leaving many more maimed for life. Then following several worldwide vaccination campaigns, polio was eradicated in most of the globe... Today polio is endemic in certain specific areas in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Nigeria where the local population are at odds with the government. The virus cannot spread to other countries because most of the population is already immune. The day people in those areas get vaccinated polio will be a disease of the past.

Edited June 23, 2021 by carlos

[blue-jay]

On 6/20/2021 at 8:16 PM, Qapla said:

It would seem that the WHO will look at herd immunity percentage, rate of increase/decrease in new cases and deaths.

 

These would seem to be the first stats that they would use before they look at how "ready" people are to return to normal.

 

This makes sense. 

And I hope that in determining herd immunity they also consider the ones that are naturally immune because of having had the virus, and not just the number of those getting the vaccine. 

[Sofia]

On 6/20/2021 at 1:35 PM, Tortuga said:

Then what is the official definition that the pandemic is over? Who determines when the global pandemic is over? What are they looking for? Is it a worldwide announcement?  

Im positive that WHO will make a declaration: "the pandemic is oficially over" and the World is safe again from the virus. 

This can be one security announcement... From the P&S cry we expect.

CAN be. Im not saying it WILL be ... 

13 hours ago, blue-jay said:

This makes sense. 

And I hope that in determining herd immunity they also consider the ones that are naturally immune because of having had the virus, and not just the number of those getting the vaccine. 

Correct

On 6/21/2021 at 11:37 AM, carlos said:

On the other hand, the end of the pandemic or even epidemic doesn't imply zero cases. It simply means there are no more cases than usual. Covid19 is a new virus, so there is no "usual" yet, but probably a number of cases will exist every year that will be considered normal.

correct

[Sofia]

On 6/21/2021 at 12:23 AM, hatcheckgirl said:

Borders are still closed. Until the government feels it is “safe” to open up, then we'll know the pandemic is over.  For that to happen, 

1. Most people will have to be vaccinated within the country

2. the rest of the world also would have to reach some minimum level of vaccination

3. Safeguards would have to be in place to put out any “spot-fires”, like we have in Australia/NZ/Singapore - contact tracing and ongoing testing.

4. A very effective back-up plan like proper quarantine facilities to manage outbreaks so life can continue “as normally as possible” for everyone else.

 

But basically, there isn’t going to be a “going back to how it was before”. The virus is here until the NW, and governments will just be managing it better (maybe) going forward… Timing? At least another year, if not more. And that’s basically because of the greed in this world of not sharing the vaccine with poorer nations. The UN has said this repeatedly, and it will slow down opening up. https://www.un.org/press/en/2021/ecosoc7039.doc.htm

 

agree!

[comtemplate]

So, it sounds like we're all  thinking along the lines of logic

I'm thinking before the pandemic is over here's why..... there really doesn't need to be any accuracy to them saying peace and security. 

 

 Plus that would be the time that we'd expect it .... Jesus said its going to come as a shock for us, us who are keeping on the watch.

[Shawnster]

39 minutes ago, comtemplate said:

So, it sounds like we're all  thinking along the lines of logic

I'm thinking before the pandemic is over here's why..... there really doesn't need to be any accuracy to them saying peace and security. 

 

 Plus that would be the time that we'd expect it .... Jesus said its going to come as a shock for us, us who are keeping on the watch.

I think you've gotten topics mixed up.  This topic is about when will the pandemic end.

[Tortuga]

9 minutes ago, Shawnster said:

I think you've gotten topics mixed up.  This topic is about when will the pandemic end.

More specifically about what metrics will be used by the World Health Organization to make an official statement that the pandemic is officially over.

[Sofia]

7 minutes ago, Tortuga said:

More specifically about what metrics will be used by the World Health Organization to make an official statement that the pandemic is officially over.

the pandemic ends when the virus is no longer prevalent throughout the world or in multiple countries/regions.

Here’s how that can happen:

        A vaccine or an effective treatment is developed – this would be the most desirable option. Think of polio – an epidemic, not a pandemic – which came to a medical end with a vaccine.

        Infection and death rates plummet – also considered a medical end. That’s how the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 ended ­– those infected either died or developed immunity.

       People simply get tired of living in fear, and learn to live in a world with the disease. This is considered a social ending, which is not an actual end since the disease itself doesn’t go away. In this situation the disease may continue to spread, which can delay the medical end. 
 

WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN NEXT?

Historically pandemics have seen their end both medically—via herd immunity or immunizations—and socially, when populations declare the pandemic over themselves by forgoing restrictions.

[Tortuga]

10 minutes ago, Sofia said:

the pandemic ends when the virus is no longer prevalent throughout the world or in multiple countries/regions.

True, however I was curious about what metrics they are looking for. It appears we don't have that answer.

[Sofia]

56 minutes ago, Tortuga said:

True, however I was curious about what metrics they are looking for. It appears we don't have that answer.

Yes

there s no answer now

we must pay attention 🙏😊

[Tortuga]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/17/pfizer-executives-say-covid-could-become-endemic-by-2024.html

 

Pfizer executives say the pandemic could become a endemic by 2024. The article gives an explanation of why they feel that way, so I guess that's the best answer I'll get on this topic.

Edited December 19, 2021 by Tortuga

[Sofia]

1 minute ago, Tortuga said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/17/pfizer-executives-say-covid-could-become-endemic-by-2024.html

 

Pfizer executives say the pandemic could become a endemic by 2024. 

Scientists state that it can be over before summer time if omicron replaces Delta... 

Bill Gates blogged about it too: it´s soon to be over.

 

Let´s keep on the watch!